I'm not nearly as pessimistic as others on this board.
Given the demographics of the population, reimbursements per patient essentially are going to have to drop in order for Medicare to stay even remotely solvent. That isn't necessarily going to translate into decreased income if practitioners can increase efficiency and lower costs, as volume should increase with the increasing Medicare population.
Sure, we're facing reimbursement pressures, because of course we are. Payors are going to do what they can, because they are businesses and that's what they should be doing. I would be incensed if I were a large shareholder in a major insurer and they weren't doing anything to reduce the accounts payable side of their ledger. Anytime a new therapy is introduced (IMRT for example), reimbursements steadily go down over time, no matter the field. I don't know of any medical field that isn't facing reimbursement pressures, so I'm not sure there's a 100% safe place to run to if you still want to do clinical medicine. Our field does give us the ability to ramp up volume much better than others such as surgery, so I think it may be relatively easier for us to maintain income. Finally, If you think hospital administration is going to provide safe haven, be careful- the same reimbursement cuts that you're worried about will effect those jobs as well.
However, currently a busy radonc in a good, strong private practice can still do very well, and some trends are looking good here. Specifically, though we've seen an increased # of academic satellite centers gobbling up business, payors are beginning to notice and push back. Average payments for equivalent outcomes in academic centers vs. strong private practices are 3-5x higher in academic centers for the same services, which really isn't sustainable from a payor standpoint. We've already started to see payors refuse coverage for treatment at academic centers, and I think it's only the beginning. If/When we move to case-based reimbursement, if the payment is the same, academics vs private practice, either rates will be set at levels high enough to allow great profitability in private centers or payments will be low enough to where the academic centers become insolvent. Either way, I think it could rejuvenate PP in the long run, which is long overdue and will save billions nationwide.
On the other hand, salaries for hospital-based jobs will continue to drop due to increased supply of radoncs due to residency overexpansion, no way around it. Shame, but that wound is self-inflicted, so no one to blame but ourselves.
Lots of interesting clinical developments going on as well which gives me hope for the field. I've seen a dramatic uptick in SBRT business since systemic treatment has improved due to oligometastatic disease treatment, and I think this is only going to get better once the academics actually start doing some useful research again on abscopal effects and synergy between XRT and Immunotx. SBRT for VTach is fascinating, and I strongly believe radiocardiology is about to explode.
I'm 9 years out of residency, so I fall within the "10 years out of training" population you mention should think about retraining, and I am completely confident in saying that would be the stupidest financial decision I could possibly make right now.