# of applicants is dropping - the proof

I think they will be dramatically up the next couple of years because of the economy.

 

That is proof the number of applicants WAS dropping. If they do actually drop this year (which I do not believe they will), it will be the last year.

 

unfortunately, that's only data from ONE school. Try going to AAMC's website for some harder numbers overall.

 

I've got to agree that the number of applicants will continue to decline regardless of the economy. You have to understand that one cannot just apply to med school on a whim. You must have completed pre-med requirements and taken the MCAT. For those who are not in college, this is a major undertaking b/c it means you must go back and take post-bacc classes and then take the MCAT, a rather costly venture that in no way guarantees success.
I'd be very surprised if there was even an increase in the number of people applying to or taking post-bacc classes.

If you are still in college, deciding to go to med school would have to mean that you would have to take all the pre-med requirements. For upperclassmen who are well into their majors, this might prove to be too difficult in terms of rearranging their schedules. Thus, the only people who can feasibly increase the applicant pool in any way are underclassmen. I really don't think there has been a surge in underclassmen who are dying to become doctors, but I may be wrong.

With all the "bad" news about doctors' salaries, I'd be shocked if more people decided to go the medicine route simply to have a secure job. I don't know anyone in their right mind who'd sacrifice all that is necessary and go as deep into debt just to have a secure job. It takes a special person to want to do medicine and those people aren't really the type that would enter medicine just b/c the economy's a little sour.

just my $.02

 

just remember that even though applicants are down the stats are rising so it is the people with the weaker stats that arent applying so it will prob not affect you anyways

 

Actually I disagree. Many of the people that are applying now are people that began college 3 to 5 years ago when tech was big, the market was booming, and everything was great. Rather than committ to medicine, they saw jobs in the computer industry and business as a more promising career track with far less schooling. As a result, the number of premeds dropped. Many of my friends got computer sci degrees and began making around $50K fresh out of school which isn't bad. Different circumstances may have had some of them do medicine and some were pretty smart. Now with the economy bad, you will see an increase in pre-meds and within 3 years or so applications will rise when the new pre-meds begin applying.

Currently the stats may be rising but its not because people with poor stats aren't applying. Think about it, if you've done all your pre-reqs and ECs but have mediocre MCAT scores or GPA but still gone through all that pre-med crap, are you going to seriously just drop everything and not apply with the economy as bad as it is now? If the economy were good, you'd have a point since they would likely opt for other career tracks that required less schooling and faster monetary gratification.

Stats are rising b/c people in general are preparing better and many schools have excellent pre-med advising programs. Competition among pre-meds at some schools has reached cutthroat levels. Intense competition brings about higher and higher stats b/c of a more well-informed applicant pool.

 

This discussion would be better under a more proper title of "Keynesian Economics". Supply vs. demand...is the demand curve being shifted to the left or right? Stats, numbers, all the ECs, it comes down to supply and demand. Is there a demand for you on the market? I thought I heard of some medical schools drastically reducing the number of accepted applicants in the coming year...clearly, not a demand shift.+ABc-

 

The number of matriculants remains almost exactly constant over time.

 

i completely agree with explosivo.. in fact thats my exact situation...

i saw the computer industry a quick way to make money instead of getting a real career in something i wanted to do.. now im going back and working towards medicine

 

are these data for the classes of those specific years, or for the years in which the applications were completed. if it is the latter, the stat is meaningless as the application process is far from over for 2002-2003

p

 

my point was more that even though the number of applicants is dropping it may be just as hard to get in because the stats are rising and you ahve to do better and more

 

i think stats are better nowadays because people are simply preparing better. moreover, perhaps the mcats are getting easier, considering they are removing 5 questions from the orgo section and shortening the verbal section come april. as for the number of applicants, i think the mystique of medicine is gone, and the ones who are truly interested in money are going elsewhere. the days of wealth and financial gluttony in medicine are over, and this is a natural progression in the evolution of the applicant pool. i see applicants getting more and more realistic as to their intentions with regards to a medical career, and with that i honesty i see a continuing decline in interest in the medical field. I think the drop in applicants is just beginning.

 

The number of medical school applicants has dropped consistently since the high in 1996 but the overall MCAT scores have leveled off since that time(link).

 

One school is never proof, and Georgetown is probably the worst school to base facts on. Yes, applications are down overall since 1997, but they are leveling off in the last few years. Georgetown's application numbers are falling faster than most every other school in the past two years because of the significant concern over the school's financial state. At my interview there last year, they spent 20 minutes convincing us that there would still be a medical school at Georgetown in 4 years. That, I am sure, is enough to deter some from applying.

 

How low do you think the average pay will go? I know that even though physician salaries have declined in recent years they still make a very good living. But if the number of applicants drops as the average salary drops, isn't there a point where that will severly hurt the medical care? In fact, we may already be at that point. It would make sense that med school can find better applicants out of 50,000 people instead of 35,000 people. I think there needs to be some serious overhauls to the medical industry in order to keep it attractive to potential applicants.

Does everyone agree or am I totally off base here?

 

it is funny that you mention georgetown, couple of years ago they used to have a dental school, until it went bankrupt!

the school has incurred some heavy losses for the past couple fo years, and it remains to be one of the very few schools that requires a credit check before they hand out student loans....

 

georgetown
2001-2002: 7656