I've got to agree that the number of applicants will continue to decline regardless of the economy. You have to understand that one cannot just apply to med school on a whim. You must have completed pre-med requirements and taken the MCAT. For those who are not in college, this is a major undertaking b/c it means you must go back and take post-bacc classes and then take the MCAT, a rather costly venture that in no way guarantees success.
I'd be very surprised if there was even an increase in the number of people applying to or taking post-bacc classes.
If you are still in college, deciding to go to med school would have to mean that you would have to take all the pre-med requirements. For upperclassmen who are well into their majors, this might prove to be too difficult in terms of rearranging their schedules. Thus, the only people who can feasibly increase the applicant pool in any way are underclassmen. I really don't think there has been a surge in underclassmen who are dying to become doctors, but I may be wrong.
With all the "bad" news about doctors' salaries, I'd be shocked if more people decided to go the medicine route simply to have a secure job. I don't know anyone in their right mind who'd sacrifice all that is necessary and go as deep into debt just to have a secure job. It takes a special person to want to do medicine and those people aren't really the type that would enter medicine just b/c the economy's a little sour.
just my $.02