From what I gathered, SUNY Downstate's hold is much different than Upstates. I have never heard of someone being rejected from Upstate off the bat. Downstate, on the other hand, rejects immediately. I should know. 😉
If you get the HOLD from Downstate saying that they are waiting for your fall grades, I think its a good sign. Both of my friends who got taht letter were invited for an interview. One was accepted the other waitlisted.