Only 85% go on to residency?

[jake2]

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Okay, I'm chilling out in my fourth year and have way to much time on my hands at the moment. I was reading the Charting Outcomes of the Match document and noticed something. Only 14,420 US seniors participated in the NRMP match. That got me curious. I looked up the Optho, Neurosurg, and Urology match info and adding those in, you still get only ~15,500 match participants (and this includes IMGs in the last 3 specialties because individual numbers are not available).

As there are ~18000 students enrolled in US allopathic schools each year, if this number is right, that means either 1) a good chunck of graduates don't even get interview offers which I have a hard time believing, or 2) ~15% of US med students don't go on to residency.

That number would seem very high to me as maybe 2-3% of my school doesn't go on to residency per year. What do you guys think, am I missing something or is this number in fact right?

 

[gro2001]

Can't US students accept positions outside the match?

 

[Mobius1985]

People might be taking a year off to do research, have a child, or complete masters or PhD requirements. Maybe some are international stiudents who complete med school in the US, but apply to residencies in their home country.

 

[coralfangs]

Don't forget that there are those who are interested in research and there are business/pharm/biotech firms out there recruiting medical graduates.
I am not sure how many MD graduates go straight into academia without going through their residency but I know that there is a separate category for POST-DOC salary for those with MD degree.

 

[SoCuteMD]

Can't US students accept positions outside the match?

No, they can not.

 

[SoCuteMD]

A more accurate reflection of the number of US grads going on to residency would be to add the number of US seniors to the number of independent US applicants (I'm calling it the wrong thing - i don't remember the exact name). These are US grads who have received their medical school diploma but did not go straight on to residency.

 

[Law2Doc]

Okay, I'm chilling out in my fourth year and have way to much time on my hands at the moment. I was reading the Charting Outcomes of the Match document and noticed something. Only 14,420 US seniors participated in the NRMP match. That got me curious. I looked up the Optho, Neurosurg, and Urology match info and adding those in, you still get only ~15,500 match participants (and this includes IMGs in the last 3 specialties because individual numbers are not available).

As there are ~18000 students enrolled in US allopathic schools each year, if this number is right, that means either 1) a good chunck of graduates don't even get interview offers which I have a hard time believing, or 2) ~15% of US med students don't go on to residency.

That number would seem very high to me as maybe 2-3% of my school doesn't go on to residency per year. What do you guys think, am I missing something or is this number in fact right?

I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. According to the NRMP press release for the 08 Match day, "a record-high 15,242 in the match were U.S.
medical school seniors, 94.2 percent of whom successfully matched to a residency program.", and 883 US allo students scrambled into positions outside of the match.

 

[deleted74029]

Can't US students accept positions outside the match?

No, they can not.

...and 883 US allo students scrambled into positions outside of the match.

Well what does that mean? Are they referring to non-clinical positions?

 

[jake2]

Hmm... shouldn't people taking a year or more out in med school cancel out with people who put of residency from earlier on? For example, I'm an MD/PhD so I didn't graduate in 2005 with my class. However, an MD/PhD from the entering class of 2001 presumably did, thus taking my place.

People taking time out after med school makes sense though as they'd be independent applicants when they came back and applied to residency. 15% still seems pretty high for time out after med school rather than within it. In your guys experience, does that happen though?

What I was getting at was could it be possible that 15% of entering med students say the hell with it and go into business, research, or other jobs? That would be a pretty impressive statistic if it was true.

I got my NRMP numbers by adding the number of US seniors who matched in 2007 through the NRMP, 13,263, to the number they say didn't match, 1,157, giving 14,420 total. Is there something wrong with my logic in doing that? Could it be that 2007 was just a fluke year?

 

[jake2]

O, and I think you can take a position outside the match, but I think that before scrambling, the waste majority of people have taken part in the match rather than gambling on the scramble, so most of that 883 should also be included in the numbers I got above, no?

 

[DoctorPardi]

I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. According to the NRMP press release for the 08 Match day, "a record-high 15,242 in the match were U.S.
medical school seniors, 94.2 percent of whom successfully matched to a residency program.", and 883 US allo students scrambled into positions outside of the match.

Hold on though, your number 15,242 only accounts for medical students who "used the match" right? I mean isn't it possible that some 4th years never even attempt to match at all? That to me would be the more interesting question, who are these people graduating and not going on to get any training (if they exist).

 

[167649]

Hold on though, your number 15,242 only accounts for medical students who "used the match" right? I mean isn't it possible that some 4th years never even attempt to match at all? That to me would be the more interesting question, who are these people graduating and not going on to get any training (if they exist).

Don't many take a year off to do research fellowships etc? Those individuals would try to match the next year but wouldn't be included in the 15k number since they had already graduated.

 

[NonTradMed]

Seems awfully high. What is everyone's experience with their own schools? I believe almost everyone from my med school enters and successfully matches. It's the exception that a med student deliberately bypass the match.

 

[Law2Doc]

Seems awfully high. What is everyone's experience with their own schools? I believe almost everyone from my med school enters and successfully matches. It's the exception that a med student deliberately bypass the match.

I know a few folks who are taking research years to make themselves more competitive for certain things. And there are probably folks who have emergency reasons not to apply. But even if we are talking a couple per school I don't think that adds up to the big numbers the OP thinks are out there.

 

[jake2]

To be fair though, even the number you found is pretty low, Law2Doc.

That being said, I think your probably right that the numbers I quoted and you found are probably missing something. I have a hard time believing the reasons listed above could apply to more than 1 in 10 medical students.

 

[sendwich]

i was a UCLA md graduation a few years ago and there were surprisingly a LOT of grads going into non-med fields (ie MBA, JD or consulting-ish sorts of jobs). lots of people go this way. me that day-->😱

 

[NonTradMed]

Well, given that med schools are generally pretty small, I guess we can get skewed numbers depending from year to year. I would wager those that enter completely different fields after getting their MD found medicine unsatisfactory during their later years but decided financially it would be better if they finished school before embarking on a new career.

 

[Law2Doc]

i was a UCLA md graduation a few years ago and there were surprisingly a LOT of grads going into non-med fields (ie MBA, JD or consulting-ish sorts of jobs). lots of people go this way. me that day-->😱

I kind of doubt you will find a "LOT" if you extrapolate over all the med schools. Only a portion have MBA and JD programs, a relatively small percentage of students in MD schools are joint degree even at those schools that offer it, and those that do tend to counsel folks to do at least a year of residency before jumping stream, not only to keep your foot in the door if you need to come back to medicine, but also because in things like consulting and industry you are significantly more valuable if you have some work experience (ie residency) before you come in. So we aren't talking about too many people like this. If you saw a lot at UCLA, that was an aberration. Over the 120+ US allo med schools I doubt you'd have more than 3% fit this mold.

 

[Gut Shot]

The NRMP isn't the only funnel into residency. There is the San Francisco match and some other specialty-dependent systems.

 

[VincentAdultman]

no, they can not.

orly?

 

[Non-TradTulsa]

There are pre-match contracts and I don't see why those would be in the NRMP and San Francisco match totals. Until very recently, there were only about 16,500 U.S. allopathic graduates per year - I think the larger class sizes - which would reflect the 18,000 total that you cited - are still working their way through the pipeline. I know my own class size was the first expansion my school had in decades - but we haven't graduated yet.

But, looking at the bigger picture:

How many people do you know who take on $200,000 in debt and plan to pay it off with anything other than a physician's salary?

 

[SoCuteMD]

orly?

It's my understanding that US seniors can not accept a position outside the match until after match day. It may happen, but it's most certainly not the norm and it's definitely against the NRMP guidelines.

 

[Non-TradTulsa]

It's my understanding that US seniors can not accept a position outside the match until after match day. It may happen, but it's most certainly not the norm and it's definitely against the NRMP guidelines.

Well, no, once they've interviewed you as an NRMP applicant, they can't offer you a position under the table - that's verboten, and tacky. But if they know you before applications to NRMP are submitted and want to offer you a position outside the match, that's perfectly fair. It just doesn't happen very often these days.

 

[SoCuteMD]

Well, no, once they've interviewed you as an NRMP applicant, they can't offer you a position under the table - that's verboten, and tacky. But if they know you before applications to NRMP are submitted and want to offer you a position outside the match, that's perfectly fair. It just doesn't happen very often these days.

Really? I had no idea! Learn something new every day 🙂

 

[VincentAdultman]

Well, no, once they've interviewed you as an NRMP applicant, they can't offer you a position under the table - that's verboten, and tacky. But if they know you before applications to NRMP are submitted and want to offer you a position outside the match, that's perfectly fair. It just doesn't happen very often these days.

Actually, I interviewed at a program where they offered their two 6 year research positions outside the match. It's pretty well-known that they do it.

 

[MonkeyNuts!]

consulting baby

 

[ZagDoc]

Everyone knows all these MDs are going into iBanking.

< /premed >

 

[Blesbok]

The entire field of urology doesn't use the match either, does it?

 

[cpants]

The people taking a year off theory doesn't hold much water, because there should be a roughly equal number of people who took last year off coming back to match this year.

 

[Achalasia]

The military has its own match as well.

 

[DrJosephKim]

The military has its own match as well.

Right, a significant portion of medical students have military obligations.