I applied to 17 programs…..mostly expensive private programs like NYU, Northwestern, USC etc with the hope that I would have better chance of getting in. And I got accepted to Northwestern. But 2 months later, the program director from Northwestern told me that the dental school would be closed permanently and he could not take me as his resident.
The #1 guy in my class only applied to 5 programs because he was confident that my dental school’s ortho would take him. My dental school was (I believe it still is) a P/F school but it still ranked its top students (based on the number of honor passes they got). I didn’t belong to this elite group. This guy didn’t get in anywhere and had to do a year of GPR. My dental school’s ortho program accepted another classmate, who had a very good research project.
The #1 guy and I reapplied the following year. He and I both got the interview at a 2-yr non-match public program that charged very low out-of-state tuition. He and I both liked the program because it's cheap. I though this # 1 guy would easily beat me for this spot. But 2 days after the interview, the program director called me to offer me the acceptance. The #1 guy later matched to another program, which charged much higher tuition.
My dental school big brother got 8 interview invitations. To get that many interviews, he obviously had very good stats. He almost decided not to attend the last interview because he believed that 7 interviews were plenty and that he would have very high chance of getting into one of them. He wanted to save money on hotel and flight ticket. But then he changed his mind and went to the last interview. He ranked this program last and he later matched to this last program. The other 7 programs didn’t put him on their rank lists.
OP, you should apply to as many programs as possible.