Oversupply of Pediatricians?

[DarthNeurology]

After reading the article,

Pan. R. J. et. al. A Jacobian Future: Can Everyone have a Medical Home. Pediatrics 206 118;1254-1256

It seems that by 2020 there will be an oversupply of generalist pediatricians compared to pediatric patients? Can anybody say whether there are going to be decreased pediatric residency positions or basically are family practicioners and pediatricians going to duke it out over patients?

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[tantrum]

There will always be uneven distribution of pediatrician. I still get mails everyday from recruiters looking for general pediatricians. Big cities, yes they are already saturated especially near NYC but there are still so many shortage areas that I doubt you will have a hard time getting a job even at 2020.

 

[DarthNeurology]

There will always be uneven distribution of pediatrician. I still get mails everyday from recruiters looking for general pediatricians. Big cities, yes they are already saturated especially near NYC but there are still so many shortage areas that I doubt you will have a hard time getting a job even at 2020.

Supposedly, according to the article we are producing generalists pediatricians now at a rate faster than babies are being made I guess, maybe I should start a campaign against abstinence and safe sex (just kidding), . . . I guess maybe the whole "doctor shortage" thing doesn't apply to pediatricians as I have also heard anecdotally that general pediatricians have a hard time finding jobs in big cities, it seems in the very rural areas where there aren't enough kids to support a single pediatrician this is the niche that family practice is adept at filling, i.e. seeing adult patients to keep the clinic going and taking care of the kids. I guess pediatricians needs to target something between a rural town of 1,000 and a major metropolitan area . . . interesting

 

[TexasRose]

The residents I have spoken to over the last week who are preparing to finish their residencies have all found jobs they are very happy with in a large metropolitan area.

I think those kinds of projections are notoriously poor at predicting actual numbers so far out. It shouldn't be influencing anyone's decision as to specialty at this point.

 

[tantrum]

They are also underestimating the birth rates especially in many border states. I have several offers from practices even in big cities in Texas like San Antonio. Look at www.practicelink.com and you can see that so many big and medium size cities are still open especially those with high Hispanic population.

 

[oompaloompa]

They are also underestimating the birth rates especially in many border states. I have several offers from practices even in big cities in Texas like San Antonio. Look at www.practicelink.com and you can see that so many big and medium size cities are still open especially those with high Hispanic population.

Agreed. Maybe there'll be oversaturation in Vermont or Washington, but all the extras can move to Texas, I promise you there will be enough. At Parkland in Dallas, the running average is 64 newborns a day. Volume is so high they end up popping out the little buggers in the hallway and waiting room at all hours of the day. Generally good people I think, but can't promise they'll speak any English, have insurance, or even know basic childcare skills, 'cause that pretty much describes my clinic, but the work is there.

The real dilemma is that even though the overall number of children in Texas is increasing, the number of those for whom it would be profitable to provide care for is static or even decreasing. So there's considerable competition for those kind of positions, even if other opportunities are plentiful.

It's a terrible shame, but the fact remains that the average medicaid patient in Texas is time-consuming and reimbursement is so low that only state-subsidized clinics and high-volume medicaid-mills can manage to break even. A callous argument perhaps, but even warm-hearted pediatricians gots to pay rent and school loans.

 

[DarthNeurology]

Cool screen name oompaloompa and quotes!

 

[tantrum]

I practice in the Appalachians, and even here the so-called Medicaid mills are doing well. There is such high demand. I've been to border towns like McAllen and Brownsville and even their non-profits (clinic only based) practices are in the black and managed properly. Add the advantages of the absence of state and city income tax, Texas is not a bad place to practice.
As far as oversaturation, even in the Northeast, there are many places that are trying hard to get pediatricians. NYC and suburbs are out but Upstate NY have lot of openings. CT and NJ are already saturated. Maine and economically depressed Midwest are also badly affected by shortages. On the west coast, Bay Area and most of Northern Cal is saturated but there's a lot of places in Southern Cal looking for pediatricians. In the south, there are mid-sized cities in North Carolina and Virginia that are recruiting. Even Florida has some although mostly southern FL which may not be conducive for some MD's.

 

[generic]

Not to be sexist...

What does everyone think about the M:F ratio in relation to Pediatrics and work-hours. I've read a couple of times that statistically speaking, more women will choose to work part-time and/or take a few years off, for childcare or whatever personal reasons they have.

I've also seen studies showing that proportionally more men than women will do fellowships after a Pedi residency.

So it seems logical to think that many of the women who do Pedi will one day choose to be a generalist in primary care and also to work fewer hours.

Do these "oversupply predictors" usually take this into account? I admit I have not looked up the original article referred to on the thread, although I think I read it in the journal.