Postpone applying due to potential large amount of applicants next cycle?

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Spongeman7

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Hello! Now, I am not going to hold off on applying because of this but I just wanted to see opinions on how you think this will effect my chances as an applicant. They are saying there could be a record number of applicants for the 2021-22 cycle (Fauci effect and all that). I have been preparing an application for 4 years now and believe I am a strong applicant, but can't help but be scared at this news. I guess part of my question is where will all those extra applications be coming from, and are those applicants stronger than average or weaker? Would love to hear thoughts!
 
There's been a flood of applications this cycle and folks are still getting in. Regardless of how many apps there are, there will still be an MD class of 2026. My personal opinion is if you are genuinely ready to apply, then do it and don't be afraid of a high number of applications. Maybe apply to a few more schools than you would have normally and definitely send in your application as early as is physically possible, but I see no reason to wait.
 
The applicant pool seems to get more competitive with each passing year. With the 'Fauci effect', I wouldn't be surprised if we see even higher numbers in the future when current freshmen apply in 2-3 years. At some point, you need to be comfortable saying that you've done enough, and to shoot your shot.
 
Moko said:
The applicant pool seems to get more competitive with each passing year. With the 'Fauci effect', I wouldn't be surprised if we see even higher numbers in the future when current freshmen apply in 2-3 years. At some point, you need to be comfortable saying that you've done enough, and to shoot your shot.
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What is this Fauci Effect exactly?
 
I agree with what everyone who commented before me said. I held off this year because I was afraid my ECs would not be competitive due to the COVID interruptions and the MCAT disruptions in the spring, and this was when some folks were speculating apps might be down due to these factors! 😎

Some people called it correctly, but most were far off the mark. At this point, Fauci effect or not, it is reasonable to assume apps will be up for a number of years going forward, as the record number of apps this cycle become a record number of reapps next cycle, in addition to all the new Fauci effect people who will come in next year.

Maybe if the economy begins returning to normal late next spring, some people will get cold feet, but I wouldn't count on it. If you have been preparing for 4 years you should be better situated than many of the newcomers. If not, you'd probably struggle regardless, as 60% do every year (guaranteed to be around 65% this cycle and higher next cycle). Good luck. I will be joining you!!! 😎
 
athorcommens said:
If you've been preparing for 4 years, late addition applicants should be no worry for you.
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Yea that was my thought too! More like 3.5 yrs hehe and I will be taking a gap year but I was confused on these late addition applicants. I guess some have just randomly decided to apply whereas others may be reapplicants who have put it off for sometime now?
 
KnightDoc said:
I agree with what everyone who commented before me said. I held off this year because I was afraid my ECs would not be competitive due to the COVID interruptions and the MCAT disruptions in the spring, and this was when some folks were speculating apps might be down due to these factors! 😎

Some people called it correctly, but most were far off the mark. At this point, Fauci effect or not, it is reasonable to assume apps will be up for a number of years going forward, as the record number of apps this cycle become a record number of reapps next cycle, in addition to all the new Fauci effect people who will come in next year.

Maybe if the economy begins returning to normal late next spring, some people will get cold feet, but I wouldn't count on it. If you have been preparing for 4 years you should be better situated than many of the newcomers. If not, you'd probably struggle regardless, as 60% do every year (guaranteed to be around 65% this cycle and higher next cycle). Good luck. I will be joining you!!! 😎
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Let’s hope for the best!
 
Don't overthink. Just apply broadly and hope for the best. I was in your shoe earlier in this admission cycle, worrying about my lack of EC compared to older applicants with more clinical and volunteering experiences. What affected me the most, however, was the record number of applicants this year (25% increase in one of my top choice schools). Yet, I still got A from my other top choice school. Remember that the admissions process is holistic beyond number of applicants, and if you ever receive an II, you'd better be ready to crush that interview.
 
Spongeman7 said:
Hello! Now, I am not going to hold off on applying because of this but I just wanted to see opinions on how you think this will effect my chances as an applicant. They are saying there could be a record number of applicants for the 2021-22 cycle (Fauci effect and all that). I have been preparing an application for 4 years now and believe I am a strong applicant, but can't help but be scared at this news. I guess part of my question is where will all those extra applications be coming from, and are those applicants stronger than average or weaker? Would love to hear thoughts!
Click to expand...
1) There's some argument about this, but at least at my school, apps go up when the economy tanks.
2) Most of those are people who are applying seem to be doing so a year early
3) If you don't apply, your rejection rate will be 100%
4) Don't assume that all the people applying are actually competitive.
5) Apply when you are 100% ready.
6) This cycle, at my DO school, the applicants are indeed stronger. I have yet to see someone with an MCAT score <510, and I'd estimate that ~20% of the applicants have Stanford/Harvard stats. And for the first time ever, I'm seeing applicants from the Ivies.
 
Goro said:
6) This cycle, at my DO school, the applicants are indeed stronger. I have yet to see someone with an MCAT score <510, and I'd estimate that ~20% of the applicants have Stanford/Harvard stats. And for the first time ever, I'm seeing applicants from the Ivies.
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wow. That tells the story of 18% rise.
 
If you have been preparing for 3+ years you shouldn't worry about what other applicants have or number of applicants/applications. Fauci effect has no impact on my well prepared kid's cycle. Given the holistic nature of the process you should apply broadly.
 
Spongeman7 said:
Hello! Now, I am not going to hold off on applying because of this but I just wanted to see opinions on how you think this will effect my chances as an applicant. They are saying there could be a record number of applicants for the 2021-22 cycle (Fauci effect and all that). I have been preparing an application for 4 years now and believe I am a strong applicant, but can't help but be scared at this news. I guess part of my question is where will all those extra applications be coming from, and are those applicants stronger than average or weaker? Would love to hear thoughts!
Click to expand...
This year, someone pointed out in another thread that Peace Corps early return might have added up to 7k apps. Not sure how that will affect future years. Also, not sure if med schools will continue virtual interviewing - which I am sure accounted for the increase in the number of applications this year. Virtual interviews have also added competition this year by making it easy for applicants to attend many interviews and making it not necessary to reject interviews due to cost and time constraints of travel. If virtual interviews continue, competition is likely to be even higher next year as applicants get more used to that format. Also like someone else said here, future candidates inspired by COVID-19 may be stronger than those who applied this year (and perhaps next year), because it gives them time to be better applicants. Point is, if you wait for this trend to stop, you may never get an opportunity to apply. Like others have said, go ahead and apply when you think you are ready.
 
In original thread its effects were discussed thoroughly.
Here is analysis summary.
This year applicants: ~61K (18% up from ~52K average from previous 5 years)
Seats: Remain same as before ~22K.
Applications Prediction: ~1M first time ever.
Acceptance Rate: Would dip to ~34% from ~40%
Rejection Rate: Would jump to ~66% from ~60%
Reapplicants in coming years: Would go up and will take 2-3 years to absorb aftershocks of 18% rise this year.
 
HopeP said:
Reapplicants in coming years: Would go up and will take 2-3 years to absorb aftershocks of 18% rise this year.
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My thoughts:

I'm confident that most of the 18% rise in # of applicants this year are people who were originally going to apply next year (but didn't due to gap year plan cancellations and other reasons). Therefore, the total sum of applicants from this cycle + next cycle should be roughly unaffected by COVID (unless the Fauci effect was significant). Sure, the number of reapplicants will go up next cycle, but many of these reapplicants were originally going to apply next cycle anyway, so the total number of applicants shouldn't rise too much.
 
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JimKimSlim said:
Don't overthink. Just apply broadly and hope for the best. I was in your shoe earlier in this admission cycle, worrying about my lack of EC compared to older applicants with more clinical and volunteering experiences. What affected me the most, however, was the record number of applicants this year (25% increase in one of my top choice schools). Yet, I still got A from my other top choice school. Remember that the admissions process is holistic beyond number of applicants, and if you ever receive an II, you'd better be ready to crush that interview.
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He lives!
 
mvsrocks said:
I'm confident that most of the 18% rise in # of applicants this year are people who were originally going to apply next year (but didn't due to gap year plan cancellations and other reasons). Therefore, the total sum of applicants from this cycle + next cycle should be roughly unaffected by COVID (unless the Fauci effect was significant). Sure, the number of reapplicants will go up next cycle, but many of these reapplicants were originally going to apply next cycle anyway, so the total number of applicants shouldn't rise too much.
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That's an interesting take, the 18% rise main reason is early applicants, so next year would be back to ~52K, hopefully that turns out to be true.🤞
 
GoPenguinsGo said:
Increased applicants =/= Increased competitiveness
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Then why would one even bother to apply if they are not competitive enough. It is advised all the time put your best foot forward for MCAT as well as applying, so to suggest 18% apply without competitive enough is unfair. In fact they will be more competitive in coming years as they have leisure of gap years to boost profile vs someone who is still Freshman/Sophomore/Junior.
 
HopeP said:
Then why would one even bother to apply if they are not competitive enough. It is advised all the time put your best foot forward for MCAT as well as applying, so to suggest 18% apply without competitive enough is unfair. In fact they will be more competitive in coming years as they have leisure of gap years to boost profile vs someone who is still Freshman/Sophomore/Junior.
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People do it, believe me.
 
While many of the 18% increase may not be very competitive, I'm sure at least some (maybe ~8%) are actually very competitive, which still increases competitiveness this cycle.
 
athorcommens said:
People do it, believe me.
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I do believe that there are people like that every year, but that pool just had Covid kool-aid and decided to apply by 18% more sounds illogical. I don't think 18% more have just decided to shoot the shot w/o competitive enough.
If you go back to original thread, I had posted graphs with economy impact, and picture portraits differently than common belief that in economy downturns applicants goes up.
As far as competitiveness goes, my thought process is top 2% of candidates, aka rockstars, are not affected, but middle/low cohort is crowded and going to create unpleasant unexpected experience for so many hopefuls who applied this year.
 
HopeP said:
I do believe that there are people like that every year, but that pool just had Covid kool-aid and decided to apply by 18% more sounds illogical. I don't think 18% more have just decided to shoot the shot w/o competitive enough.
If you go back to original thread, I had posted graphs with economy impact, and picture portraits differently than common belief that in economy downturns applicants goes up.
As far as competitiveness goes, my thought process is top 2% of candidates, aka rockstars, are not affected, but middle/low cohort is crowded and going to create unpleasant unexpected experience for so many hopefuls who applied this year.
Click to expand...
Only impact I see is longer response time and may be fewer interviews if schools stick to same number of interviews as last year. I doubt it forces rock stars to apply to DO schools but I am not an admin.
 
mvsrocks said:
While many of the 18% increase may not be very competitive, I'm sure at least some (maybe ~8%) are actually very competitive, which still increases competitiveness this cycle.
Click to expand...
What 8% are you referring to? The 18% increase represents an increase from 53,000 applicants to 62,500, or 9500 additional applicants.

Do you mean 8% of them (760), which seems entirely reasonable and not material to the pool of 22,000 available seats, or 8 of the 18%, which would be 44% of the increase (comparable to the average acceptance rate in a "normal" year), which would be 4200 of the additional candidates? If true, that would indeed be very disruptive, since it would displace 4200 people who would have been accepted in any other year.

I just don't believe that many excellent candidates materialized out of nowhere at the last minute. Again, if, true, next year will also be a disaster as all of the displaced people will be reapplying along with everyone else.
 
EdgeTrimmer said:
Only impact I see is longer response time and may be fewer interviews if schools stick to same number of interviews as last year. I doubt it forces rock stars to apply to DO schools but I am not an admin.
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It doesn't. It might have made some rock stars nervous, and got a few DO adcoms a little prematurely excited by seeing them apply and taking a shot and not yield protecting them out, but it's really inconceivable that the 10,000 additional last minute applicants are SOOOOOO good that they will force otherwise excellent Ivy League applicants to go DO. I am also not an adcom, but I do posses a minimal amount of common sense! 😎

There is certainly no doubt that the number of applicants swelled this year, but it's hard to believe that they are disproportionately well qualifed, as opposed to disproportionately under qualified, and that they won't make up a disproportionate share of future reapplicants as opposed to displacing otherwise well qualified candidates who were planning on applying during the 2020-21 cycle for years.
 
KnightDoc said:
What 8% are you referring to? The 18% increase represents an increase from 53,000 applicants to 62,500, or 9500 additional applicants.
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I don't like writing paragraphs, but..

I'm arguing that many applicants who suddenly decided to apply this cycle do have competitive apps, even without a gap year. They were going to apply next year, but likely didn't due to gap year job cancellations or other reasons. Gap year or not, they still have experiences and ECs from undergrad that are likely sufficient.

So even though a majority of that 18% increase may be less competitive, there are still those who do have good reason to apply (which I'm guessing would translate to 8% increase in total applicants, or 4200 additional candidates). But not all these 4200 additional candidates will get accepted. I'm simply saying that these 4200 should be treated like regular, non-COVID cycle candidates.

I should clarify that by "very competitive," I mean having an app that matches that of a normal pool of applicants. 8% was a very rough estimate though.
 
mvsrocks said:
I don't like writing paragraphs, but..

I'm arguing that many applicants who suddenly decided to apply this cycle do have competitive apps, even without a gap year. They were going to apply next year, but likely didn't due to gap year job cancellations or other reasons. Gap year or not, they still have experiences and ECs from undergrad that are likely sufficient.

So even though a majority of that 18% increase may be less competitive, there are still those who do have good reason to apply (which I'm guessing would translate to 8% increase in total applicants, or 4200 additional candidates). But not all these 4200 additional candidates will get accepted. I'm simply saying that these 4200 should be treated like regular, non-COVID cycle candidates.

I should clarify that by "very competitive," I mean having an app that matches that of a normal pool of applicants. 8% was a very rough estimate though.
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Makes sense! I think you and I are pretty close in speculating that maybe around 1,000 of these applicants will displace people who otherwise would have been accepted, which is a not so crazy 5% of the 22,000 seats.
 
athorcommens said:
I honestly don't understand why this is generating so much conversation. Just stay in your lane and focus on doing what you can. You can't affect what others are doing. Advice for med school too
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Because people who haven't yet received an A are freaking out over the reports of an additional 10,000 people being in the pool, and can't help but speculate over the potential impact on them. Others, like me, are future applicants with a little too much time on our hands who also can't help speculating on how this will affect them in the next few cycles. Then there are adcoms adding their two cents, and parents who feel the need to be part of the conversation, and here we are! 😎
 
KnightDoc said:
Because people who haven't yet received an A are freaking out over the reports of an additional 10,000 people being in the pool, and can't help but speculate over the potential impact on them. Others, like me, are future applicants with a little too much time on our hands who also can't help speculating on how this will affect them in the next few cycles. Then there are adcoms adding their two cents, and parents who feel the need to be part of the conversation, and here we are! 😎
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And seems like everyone has extra time (due to no ECs for premeds or WFH for parents and attendings).
 
KnightDoc said:
Because people who haven't yet received an A are freaking out over the reports of an additional 10,000 people being in the pool, and can't help but speculate over the potential impact on them. Others, like me, are future applicants with a little too much time on our hands who also can't help speculating on how this will affect them in the next few cycles. Then there are adcoms adding their two cents, and parents who feel the need to be part of the conversation, and here we are! 😎
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Yeah, I guess my point is that it's only going to promote anxiety spinning your wheels. Nothing to be gained from it. Obviously, people can do whatever they want, but it seems silly to me
 
athorcommens said:
Yeah, I guess my point is that it's only going to promote anxiety spinning your wheels. Nothing to be gained from it. Obviously, people can do whatever they want, but it seems silly to me
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Ideally applicants shouldn't be checking SDN, Redditt etc... once they submitted apps and secondaries and only check email every couple of hours (if they don't have smartphone alerts) for outcomes , but people do since they want to know how other applicants are doing, when IIs and As are coming and then start these threads to figure out why their outcomes are different.
 
EdgeTrimmer said:
Ideally applicants shouldn't be checking SDN, Redditt etc... once they submitted apps and secondaries and only check email every couple of hours (if they don't have smartphone alerts) for outcomes , but people do since they want to know how other applicants are doing, when IIs and As are coming and then start these threads to figure out why their outcomes are different.
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They think they're figuring things out. As a former premed, I get it. And in a few years they'll probably think it was silly like I do.
 
athorcommens said:
Yeah, I guess my point is that it's only going to promote anxiety spinning your wheels. Nothing to be gained from it. Obviously, people can do whatever they want, but it seems silly to me
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Yup, absolutely true, but isn't this a big part of what SDN is all about -- people neurotically worrying and others calming them down?? 😎
 
HopeP said:
Then why would one even bother to apply if they are not competitive enough. It is advised all the time put your best foot forward for MCAT as well as applying, so to suggest 18% apply without competitive enough is unfair. In fact they will be more competitive in coming years as they have leisure of gap years to boost profile vs someone who is still Freshman/Sophomore/Junior.
Click to expand...
Hope, there are people who apply who have no business ever setting foot on a med school campus except as either a standardized patient or as a cadaver!
 
mvsrocks said:
My thoughts:

I'm confident that most of the 18% rise in # of applicants this year are people who were originally going to apply next year (but didn't due to gap year plan cancellations and other reasons). Therefore, the total sum of applicants from this cycle + next cycle should be roughly unaffected by COVID (unless the Fauci effect was significant). Sure, the number of reapplicants will go up next cycle, but many of these reapplicants were originally going to apply next cycle anyway, so the total number of applicants shouldn't rise too much.
Click to expand...
i agree with this. there were probably some people who threw in no-chance applications because they thought the MCAT would be tossed or they just really didn't understand the process, but thats likely the minority. i think the majority is probably 3rd years (now 4th years) in college who were going to take a gap year or two to study for the MCAT and complete the application cycle who suddenly had a lot of free time with no summer internships/research, online classes, and limited social/extracurricular obligations. pre-meds are opportunistic beasts. they realized in april that they could study 3 months for the MCAT, take it in July, apply, complete secondaries over the summer (since no job and nothing to do), and go on interviews during the school year since they were virtual. i wasn't tight with too many pre-meds in college, but the ones i did know took gap years because there was just too much to do during the application cycle to also be a college student; that's not true this year.

this also combines with those who were listening to everyone saying the fastest vaccine ever was made in 4 years and didn't want to be caught without a job, and those who were planning on doing some sort of service program (TFA, peace corps, cityyear, etc). my opinion is the majority of these applicants were stolen from the next 2 cycles, and assuming things are *relatively* back to normal by next summer, the next cycle won't be affected much. however, if vaccine rollout struggles and there are still lockdowns next summer and online class planned for the fall, we may say an additional increase, although i'd predict it would be smaller because potential applicants would be more likely to do a gap year since so many people lost a year of good EC's.

long story short, i believe next year is a good year to apply because i want it to be.
 
Spongeman7 said:
Hello! Now, I am not going to hold off on applying because of this but I just wanted to see opinions on how you think this will effect my chances as an applicant. They are saying there could be a record number of applicants for the 2021-22 cycle (Fauci effect and all that). I have been preparing an application for 4 years now and believe I am a strong applicant, but can't help but be scared at this news. I guess part of my question is where will all those extra applications be coming from, and are those applicants stronger than average or weaker? Would love to hear thoughts!
Click to expand...
With large amounts of debt and people scrambling for money. I cant see students wanting a med career unless they are truly passionate. It takes people 10-15 years just to become a Dr. That’s not something a whole lot more people are excited about.
 
Goro said:
1) There's some argument about this, but at least at my school, apps go up when the economy tanks.
2) Most of those are people who are applying seem to be doing so a year early
3) If you don't apply, your rejection rate will be 100%
4) Don't assume that all the people applying are actually competitive.
5) Apply when you are 100% ready.
6) This cycle, at my DO school, the applicants are indeed stronger. I have yet to see someone with an MCAT score <510, and I'd estimate that ~20% of the applicants have Stanford/Harvard stats. And for the first time ever, I'm seeing applicants from the Ivies.
Click to expand...
Do you think that this will greatly change the larger landscape of DO applications for 2022 starting class.

I’m still preparing to sit for my MCAT in January so can’t provide any concrete comparison to where’d I lay score wise, but from seeing some of your posts in the past the DO applicant mcat range was around 500-509.

Do you think that applicants with low 500s will be out of luck in the coming cycles at many of the DO programs? All these applicant increases have been starting to worry me as we near the 2021.
 
Are schools handing out more IIs and/or screened secondaries to accommodate the increased volume of applicants? Just wondering.
 
DameJulie said:
Are schools handing out more IIs and/or screened secondaries to accommodate the increased volume of applicants? Just wondering.
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Some are and others aren't. At the end of the day, it's not going to make much of a difference because there aren't going to be any more seats to accommodate the increased volume of applicants.
 
DameJulie said:
Are schools handing out more IIs and/or screened secondaries to accommodate the increased volume of applicants? Just wondering.
Click to expand...
So far few universities who are transparent with their admission tracker, that doesn't seem to be the case. e.g. UMich has 10.5K applications (also applicants), which is up ~25+% from previous 5 years average of ~7300. So far interviews scheduled are 378, which are typically ~490.
 
Bart101 said:
Do you think that this will greatly change the larger landscape of DO applications for 2022 starting class.

I’m still preparing to sit for my MCAT in January so can’t provide any concrete comparison to where’d I lay score wise, but from seeing some of your posts in the past the DO applicant mcat range was around 500-509.

Do you think that applicants with low 500s will be out of luck in the coming cycles at many of the DO programs? All these applicant increases have been starting to worry me as we near the 2021.
Click to expand...
My belief is that many of our high stat acceptees will bail on us once they get their multiple MD acceptances.

There are two confounders that make the next prediction hard, and that is the state of the economy next cycle, and how bad the covid crisis is at that time
 
Spongeman7 said:
Hello! Now, I am not going to hold off on applying because of this but I just wanted to see opinions on how you think this will effect my chances as an applicant. They are saying there could be a record number of applicants for the 2021-22 cycle (Fauci effect and all that). I have been preparing an application for 4 years now and believe I am a strong applicant, but can't help but be scared at this news. I guess part of my question is where will all those extra applications be coming from, and are those applicants stronger than average or weaker? Would love to hear thoughts!
Click to expand...
Apply. If you have a strong application, then you'll have your shot, I wouldn't be worrying about where other applications are coming from, what other applicants are doing, or whether. or not it'll be a bumper crop of applications. Put your best application forward and take your shot. Focus on what YOU can control.
 
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