A very good analysis, but a very depressing one for community docs. All of these arrangements mean essentially zero leverage for the community doc and a best case arrangement of essentially being a satellite academic.
These arrangements may mean a 50% decrease in pay for some.
A pertinent question is how far can these monster institutions reach. Philadelphia to Lancaster, PA is 1:45 distance. This may be the future of medicine, feeling fortunate to be associated with an academic institution, while working hours away from a major city, and with minimal emphasis on academic practice in your career.
Lancaster is big relatively. Obviously, a place like PENN understands the value of maintaining brick and mortal within a 500K population metro area. But what about smaller places? Other academic places have taken over smaller rural hospitals, stripped services, staffed with minimal good faith and then bailed if it's not working financially for the mother ship.
The consolidation is the issue. Everybody will pay more. There will be effective marketing that quality has improved. Patients may in fact believe that quality has improved. Value of care, physician compensation and autonomy all decrease.
I'm afraid that it will be absolutely critical for docs to unionize at a large scale if consolidation continues.
The main problem, as I see it, is that there is virtually zero "business" education/training in the modern "doctor path" in America, outside of the folks choosing MD/MBA dual degree programs.
Even worse, the "hidden curriculum" of medical school and residency is one that actively discourages business acumen...heck, in many cases, it's not hidden, it's in plain sight.
Coupled with consolidation, each year there are tens of thousands of newly minted physicians who have assumed since their white coat ceremony that they will be W2 employees.
On the hospital side, with the Silver Tsunami, you have Gen-X and Millennial administrators who only know "employed providers".
On the government side, Stark Law and AKS are murky and have instilled fear in doctors who already think the "moral high ground" is one where even thinking about business is evil.
Long story short: not only consolidation but the CULTURE that encouraged consolidation means everyone is already paying more, and will only pay more and more every year...for equal or less quality medicine.
The sad reality is that there's a "win-win-win" scenario for hospitals/doctors/patients that can come from various practice arrangements that are barely being utilized currently. Most docs are now employed, then the majority of the minority remainder are professional services - then everything else.
But successfully designing, negotiating, executing, and maintaining "other" joint venture/practice arrangement models requires physicians and administrators to have a business acumen and risk tolerance that is very rare to find in 2023.