Psych Getting More Competitive

[Leo Aquarius]

Hello fellow psychiatry guys,

I was surprised to find this list for 2014 since I consider the unmatched rate of US seniors to be one of several barometers for competitiveness of a specialty.

Percent of Unmatched US Seniors in 2014:

Neurosurg: 17.7%
ENT: 17.6%
Plastics: 17.3%
Ortho: 17.1%
PM&R: 10.7%
Derm: 9.1%
Gen Surg: 8.7%
OBGYN: 7.1%
Rad Onc: 6.0%
Psych: 3.6%
EM: 3.4%
Family Med: 3.1%
Peds: 3.0%
Neurology: 2.6%
IM: 2.0%
Pathology: 2.0%
Anesthesia: 2.0%
Radiology: 1.0%

This is a sign of current trends. That old ROAD to happiness has some pot holes in it.
source:
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/attachments/2014-unmatched-by-specialties-gif.181262/

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[slappy]

Sorry to poke holes into your theory, but I think the unmatched rates of US seniors is a pretty poor measure of competitiveness. For starters, I could argue that more "bottom of the barrel" US seniors would have applied to psychiatry than radiology because of the popular perception that psychiatry is easier to match into than radiology, skewing the number of unmatched seniors in psychiatry.

If you were going to stick to using the unmatched rates of US seniors, I was going to suggest to at least compare the percentage over the years for a better measure. But then I remembered the NRMP reports for the 2014 match have already been released. So from that, in 2014, matched US seniors = 685 out of 751 who applied. In 2013, it was 681/749. Shows no significant increase in competitiveness.

 

[MacDonaldTriad]

These stats are just US MDs. In psychiatry, half of the trainees come from DO and IMG pools. I have to wonder what these unmatched statistics mean. If 1 out of 6 neurosurgery hopefuls don’t match, does that count someone who lists 10 neurosurgery programs and then adds a couple of transitional year programs at the end just in case? If such a person ends up in a TY position, are they considered unmatched in neurosurgery? If not, do 17.7% of neurosurgery applicants have such inflated ideas of their desirability as to not list a backup plan? (Actually, this may not be so hard to believe). Of course, realistic poor students are much more likely to apply for psychiatry than neurosurgery. If unmatched US MD psychiatrists drop any lower than 3.6%, it would mean that we are soaking up the very worst US grads the US produces over everyone else in the world. It is just a very confusing statistic that is influenced by a combination of applicant narcissism, and training program Xenophobia.

 

[Sporadicus]

I have a very simply theory on this:

US applicants are competing for the AMG heavy programs at the exclusion of several good places with higher numbers of IMGs/DOs, so in actuality, psych is getting more competitive but only among the places with >75% US grads...on the other hand, places that are high % IMG aren't ever going to attract the top candidates in our field so they put more value on getting the best applicant they can find regardless of pedigree. As a result they are less likely to take an AMG with a crappy resume over a well qualified IMG.

Those 3.6% are probably victims of both phenomena.

On a side note, my program did not accept a single DO or IMG this year, apparently for the first time ever; I am willing to bet our PD will be emboldened to be even more selective with the interviews next cycle now that we are in the 100% club!

 

[slappy]

If 1 out of 6 neurosurgery hopefuls don’t match, does that count someone who lists 10 neurosurgery programs and then adds a couple of transitional year programs at the end just in case? If such a person ends up in a TY position, are they considered unmatched in neurosurgery?

Yes.

 

[slappy]

...so in actuality, psych is getting more competitive but only among the places with >75% US grads...

We have no substantial data to support this either. For all we know, this could be just another myth.

Those 3.6% are probably victims of both phenomena.

I also do not know where the OP's chart was referenced from because according to the data NRMP has released, not 3.6% but 8.8% US seniors have not matched into psychiatry this year despite choosing it as their first choice. This is compared to a 9% unmatched rate last year as mentioned before.

 

[Leo Aquarius]

I agree it's not the best barometer, but it is worth something. The data is for applicants who ranked each specialty as their only choice. Data comes from the NRMP. See page 36 and 37 in both reports.

2013 % unmatched US Seniors in Psychiatry = 3.1%,
2013 % unmatched Independent Applicants in Psychiatry = 48.6%

2014 % unmatched US Seniors in Psychiatry = 3.6%,
2014 % unmatched Independent Applicants in Psychiatry = 49.9%

In fact, when taken together, the Total Unmatched % was the 4th highest of all specialties this year as you can see. That has to carry some weight in some stratosphere.

I found this data in these reports.
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2014.pdf (see page 36 and 37)
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/resultsanddata2013.pdf (see page 36 and 37)

 

[MacDonaldTriad]

OK, a lot of my questions have been clarified, but it still looks like this is a measure of “a combination of applicant narcissism, and training program Xenophobia.”

 

[slappy]

I agree it's not the best barometer, but it is worth something. The data is for applicants who ranked each specialty as their only choice.

Touché!

 

[Leo Aquarius]

Touché!

Most applicants apply to one specialty. Nothing new here.

 

[PikminOC]

It's the new derm.

 

[shan564]

Hello fellow psychiatry guys,

I was surprised to find this list for 2014 since I consider the unmatched rate of US seniors to be one of several barometers for competitiveness of a specialty.

Percent of Unmatched US Seniors in 2014:

Neurosurg: 17.7%
ENT: 17.6%
Plastics: 17.3%
Ortho: 17.1%
PM&R: 10.7%
Derm: 9.1%
Gen Surg: 8.7%
OBGYN: 7.1%
Rad Onc: 6.0%
Psych: 3.6%
EM: 3.4%
Family Med: 3.1%
Peds: 3.0%
Neurology: 2.6%
IM: 2.0%
Pathology: 2.0%
Anesthesia: 2.0%
Radiology: 1.0%

This is a sign of current trends. That old ROAD to happiness has some pot holes in it.
source:
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/attachments/2014-unmatched-by-specialties-gif.181262/

The only conclusion you can reasonably draw from this data is that %unmatched seniors is not a useful indicator. Considering that neurosurg and radiology are at opposite ends of the spectrum...

 

[slappy]

Most applicants apply to one specialty. Nothing new here.

No I just meant I understood where the difference in percentages came from.

 

[Leo Aquarius]

The only conclusion you can reasonably draw from this data is that %unmatched seniors is not a useful indicator. Considering that neurosurg and radiology are at opposite ends of the spectrum...

Sure it is. Just look at the bunch in the top and bottom. ENT, NSgy, Ortho, Derm are all in the top bunch (PM&R is the outlier). Path, Fam Med, Peds, etc. are in the bottom bunch. There's some truth to the trends. But point taken... % unmatched is what I call a soft indicator.

Radiology is not very competitive anymore. Anesthesiology is not either. That was four years ago. Not now.

 

[MLT2MT2DO]

Keep posting like this and you'll have an influx of us 4th year medical students, trying to match psych, looking for a heavy regimen of Klonopin.