I dunno, I wouldn't be surprised if in 2018 match the average is in the 230s.
Look at the charting outcomes for 2011 and 2014.
In 2011, Psych Avg. was 214
In 2014, Psych Avg. was 220
So an average of increase of 2 each year. Whereas other 'competitive specialities' (ie. ENT, Radiology), hovered around low 240s (no change in those 3 years). While the overall USMLE average is climbing.
This year, there was a 13% increase in U.S applicants (largest increase across all specialities). So I think its safe to say the 2015 average went up again by 2 points, and maybe even more, so easily 223-224.
So if the trend continues, I would say by 2018 match, the average could very easily be 230-232.
I mean, this thread alone has opened my eyes, and I'm a Psych intern. If medical students become aware quickly that you can realistically make 350-400K with no nights/weekends/little on-call/great job market/low overhead/low malpractice, then that 3% number is going to skyrocket. Medical students have no knowledge about malpractice or overhead costs. When I tell med students that OBGYN pay 180-200K in malpratice in the NYC area, they are shocked, or that optho has an average overhead cost of 35-40%, they are in disbelief. Meanwhile guys like Shikima are cookin' with 20% overhead. Impressive.
Just this week I had a medical student who was gun-ho about cardiology. But after I spent some time with him, and told him some of the stuff we have been discussing on this thread, he is actually seriously considering psych. I think the fact that he cringes everytime he hears "CODE STEMI" overheaded also helps my arguments for psych
So yes, W19 has some validity with his worries. I don't think by 2018 (as the article stated) that there will be NO spots for DO/IMGs, but I think it will be almost impossible for DO/IMGs to match into 2nd tier university programs, whereas 5 years ago you just needed below average to average USMLE scores and you would walk into a match.
Again, just my 2 cents, but its fun to talk about this stuff, and exciting for our field.
No way. Average 230s for the average USMLE across the board, definitely. But not average psych step 1. Let's not make too many assumptions here. It's not like all of sudden psych became so competitive in 2015.