Also, from
Cureus. 2016 Sep; 8(9): e769.
Published online 2016 Sep 7. doi:
10.7759/cureus.769
PMCID: PMC5059149
A Predictive Model for USMLE Step 1 Scores
A Predictive Model for USMLE Step 1 Scores
"A surrogate measurement for prior scientific knowledge may be performance on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), particularly on the biological and physical sciences sections. In fact, Julian performed a prospective study of two cohorts of medical school classes to examine the use of undergraduate grade point average (GPA) and MCAT to predict performance in medical school and beyond. He found that the contribution of undergraduate GPA to performance on Step 1 was
overtaken by performance on the MCAT, and thus
MCAT scores could be used as a surrogate measure of undergraduate performance. He found that there was an overall pattern of better academic performance associated with higher MCAT scores, in all sections of the exam [
5]. Further, Veloski, et al. performed a retrospective study on 6,239 students entering medical school over 30 years and correlated MCAT scores, undergraduate GPA, age, and sex to performance on the Step 1 examination. These authors found that
for each point increase in the MCAT science score, there was a 4.26-point increase in the Step 1 score [
6]. These findings were consistent with other studies, which have demonstrated a correlation of MCAT scores to Step 1 scores [
7-
8]."
5. Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting medical school performance. Julian ER.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16186610. Acad Med. 2005;80:910–917. [
PubMed]
6. Prediction of students' performances on licensing examinations using age, race, sex, undergraduate GPAs, and MCAT scores. Veloski JJ, Callahan CA, Xu G, Hojat M, Nash DB.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11031165. Acad Med. 2000;75:28–30. [
PubMed]
7. Does the MCAT predict medical school and PGY-1 performance? Saguil A, Dong T, Gingerich RJ, et al. Mil Med. 2015;180:4–11. [
PubMed]
8. Impact of preadmission variables on USMLE step 1 and step 1 performance. Kleshinksi J, Khuder SA, Shapiro JI, Gold JP. Adv Health Sci Educ Theory Pract. 2009;14:69–78. [
PubMed]