I think you also have to look at how much of the Q-bank you complete when you're doing no repeats. Once you get so far into it you've exhausted diciplines like cell bio, biostats, or embryo so your 50 questions end up being mostly path, pharm, micro, etc...stuff that people are usually stronger in. Its not really random anymore and the final average doesn't really mean much, because it should go up for most people. So if you did 60% of the q-bank over the last 2 weeks, your average might be lower than someone who did 100% of it over 4 weeks, but you could get the same score on test day. The q-bank really should be used to monitor your progress over time. Is your average going up each week? Are you bombing a high-yield area? If you sit down and take a reputable practice test a couple days before it should definately be a better predictor. It would be cool if the Q-bank set aside 300 questions that they considered a represenative USMLE that you could take when you felt like you were ready.