you're making something excessively complicated with lots of assumptions though. median MGMA numbers are far from perfect but are closer to the truth then trying to use backwards alleys to get there.
I think you are over-estimating the number of practicing radoncs in the USA. I know of several who still have their NPI but haven't practiced medicine in at least 5 years.
It's not complicated. And I don't need to know the number of rad oncs to make a guess at median rad onc salary. And, yes, one should not use NPIs to estimate rad onc numbers. I think the best we can do on rad onc numbers is use the Bates/Chowdhary 2020 PRO paper which said 5300 in 2017, and estimate an extra 100 ROs per year since then. But be that as it may...
Here are the best data with the highest confidence:
1) The median RO Medicare reimbursement is $150K/year (avg is $335K/RO per year over about 4800 entities... mostly MDs but also centers... for ~1.6B in 2019... this is very granular data).
2) There were 350K Medicare RT patients in 2019 with unique courses of RT tx's, and they comprise on average ~30% of all patients irradiated per year.
SO... we were talking x/y/z way back when. If
M = Medicare reimbursement
X = ratio of non-Medicare insurance reimbursement to Medicare insurance reimbursement per RO
Y = % of total prof&technical reimbursement paid to the RO
Z = RO salary
(X*M + M) * Y = Z
In this case, one of the most knowable stats in rad onc supply/demand is median Medicare reimbursement per RO which is $150K (M=150,000). Let's solve for Y if the non-Medicare to Medicare ratio is 10 to 1...
(10*150000 + 150000)*Y=600000, Y=36%
IOW, the average rad onc would need a 10-to-1 insurance-to-medicare reimbursement ratio, and get paid 36% of the global, to get a median reimbursement of $600K a year. If a rad onc only gets 20% of the global....
(X*150000 + 150000)*0.2=600000, X=19
....
a rad onc on average ALL rad oncs would need to average a 19-to-1(!!!) non-Medicare-to-Medicare ratio to hit $600K a year median. On average
🙂
So what I am saying is to say that there is a $600K median RO salary in the US stretches credulity very, very unbelievably. When you stop to think about it.