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It’s possible. It’s also possible they had to be somewhere.Wouldn’t it be a reflection of terrible judgement?
No? Did I say that? I don’t at all.As someone who became interested in the field before there was discussion on oversupply. I discussed with leadership and was told that everything was okay. You think that it's possible it's just bad judgement from students and residents?
Something can be possible, but not what one believes.RealSimulD said:
It’s possible.
It is no fault of a resident, no resident should be punished... that is like saying a child is at fault for something. This is such a complex subject that those that have put in a ton of effort to look into know that there are a huge array of complexities and no one will be completely satisfied at the end of it. Scarb has done a lot of work to show this and it is very educational and shows his passion.
I think It is not a medical student's fault for trying to go into the most interesting field, we all probably agree that Radiation Oncology is the most interesting field to us:
We treat the best patients. We utilize the most interesting and complex human thinking (physics and chemistry) and use it to treat one of the worst diseases (and the most complex disease) to ever plague man kind.
I think it is an objective truth that there is an oversupply brewing, I also think that some of it is overblown. I see the point from PP docs that have worked their asses off and see how much RadOncs should be compensated. I can see the scenario of how academics are actively trying to invade encachment areas of these doctors and funnel money to superiors who have nothing to do with medicine. This also hurts the field.
There are biases from all sides. RadOncs need to focus on whats best for the field and forget about what's best for them. Issues will not be fixed until everyone is putting their asses on the line and working together to keep RadOnc great.
Would you be willing to disclose who in leadership said everything “was ok”. They really shouldn’t have a problem with transparency if that is what they believe.As someone who became interested in the field before there was discussion on oversupply. I discussed with leadership and was told that everything was okay. You think that it's possible it's just bad judgement from students and residents?
KO routinely states on Twitter that everything is fine. In fact, he claims that he even personally met someone with three job offers once.Would you be willing to disclose who in leadership said everything “was ok”. They really shouldn’t have a problem with transparency if that is what they believe.
Did not know that... Either way, certain programs have been established as new/unnecessary and providing suboptimal training in a specialty which is oversupplied with spots. Anyone entering in 2022+ should be well aware of this. I'm with @RickyScott here on the judgement issueWhy are they less worthy than someone from Harvard, that has been on probation a lot over the years.
I strongly agree that hyperbole would "hurt the cause", as it were, but at this point I'm unclear what is "overblown".I think some of it is overblown. I think there needs to be things done to prevent it from creating a true crisis. I love this field too and think it's the best field in medicine. I agree changes should be immediate. I agree every objective data point shows that either supply needs to be decreased or demand needs to be increases. I am putting my real life ass on the line, hope you are too.
I think it is an objective truth that there is an oversupply brewing, I also think that some of it is overblown.
Overblown, not overblown… this is like when in the active surveillance and Enza study, they called it “well tolerated.” And trust me I know we are all on the same side. But words matter. In May and June of 1776, Congress sat around hemming and hawing over the need to declare independence from Britain and to objectively cite all the injustices King George had visited on the colonies.Could we stop saying the problem is overblown??? It is a f****ing crisis! Every objective data point shows that. I love this field, but it is screwed without an immediate and massive correction in supply.
Overblown, not overblown… this is like when in the active surveillance and Enza study, they called it “well tolerated.” And trust me I know we are all on the same side. But words matter. In May and June of 1776, Congress sat around hemming and hawing over the need to declare independence from Britain and to objectively cite all the injustices King George had visited on the colonies.
Objectively, rad onc has swelled its board certified MD ranks more, relatively, than any other specialty in the US over the last twenty years. Rad onc has had the greatest year over year relative decline in salary over the last ten years than any other specialty. Rad onc grads get significantly fewer job offers than residents in any other specialty. Rad onc’s board certification process is more onerous than any other specialty. The amount Medicare gives each rad onc in part B falls every year, and more cuts via APM are on the way. Rad onc is the least competitive specialty in the match. Of all the oncological subdisciplines, rad onc has the biggest annual percent decline in utilization. Thirty years ago, the average rad onc saw 300 new patients a year… now, it’s 200. And falling.
Need I go on? Or can we go ahead and dump the tea in harbor.
Yelling “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore” out a window. And resigning from ASTRO.Metaphorically dumping tea in the harbor would be what?
I get the sentiment but the Boston Tea Party took place in 1773...Overblown, not overblown… this is like when in the active surveillance and Enza study, they called it “well tolerated.” And trust me I know we are all on the same side. But words matter. In May and June of 1776, Congress sat around hemming and hawing over the need to declare independence from Britain and to objectively cite all the injustices King George had visited on the colonies.
Objectively, rad onc has swelled its board certified MD ranks more, relatively, than any other specialty in the US over the last twenty years. Rad onc has had the greatest year over year relative decline in salary over the last ten years than any other specialty. Rad onc grads get significantly fewer job offers than residents in any other specialty. Rad onc’s board certification process is more onerous than any other specialty. The amount Medicare gives each rad onc in part B falls every year, and more cuts via APM are on the way. Rad onc is the least competitive specialty in the match. Of all the oncological subdisciplines, rad onc has the biggest annual percent decline in utilization. Thirty years ago, the average rad onc saw 300 new patients a year… now, it’s 200. And falling.
Need I go on? Or can we go ahead and dump the tea in the harbor.
Yelling “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore” out a window. And resigning from ASTRO.
Maybe it's where you work (academic place with a residency program)? I have no illusions where I'm atI feel like I'm being gaslighted into talking about how it's not as bad of an oversupply as people think, even though i agree it's an oversupply.
Rad onc grads get significantly fewer job offers than residents in any other specialty.
Are you saying rad onc job offer numbers are made up?I think this is the part where people just start to make up things because everything else is bad. I guess words matter only if they support your argument. Go talk to any peds onc fellow right now about what their job market is like (and its only gotten worse since this paper).
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I bet path and nuclear medicine is probably just as bad, but I'm not just gonna make up data about it
Maybe it's where you work (academic place with a residency program)? I have no illusions where I'm at
On one hand, I’m sure there are people having a hard time.I feel like I'm being gaslighted into talking about how it's not as bad of an oversupply as people think, even though i agree it's an oversupply.
I'm doing great.... Our jobs don't exist anymore (because we took them years ago and aren't retiring for awhile). Job market definitely better this year than it has been in a few years, just like locums pay etc post covid labor shortage and all.On one hand, I’m sure there are people having a hard time.
On the other, there are all sorts of open jobs paying median salary. Not great, but not a pittance.
It’s going to get bad. If we say it’s “so bad” now, there are data points that make the argument weak. @medgator - how has your income been last few years ? Me? I don’t have an amazing job, but my base is the highest it’s ever been. I have friends doing a pretty well.
So, some balance in the discussion is warranted maybe ?
If you look at the peds onc job market data and conclude that rad onc clearly has less job offers per graduate, then we can't have a good faith discussion here. Only 60% of peds onc fellows are getting assistant professor jobs - my best guess is they are getting on average less than 1 offer per gradAre you saying rad onc job offer numbers are made up? I don’t have the exact histogram in front of me, but I don’t see anything above that speaks to job offers per grad. In rad onc, the median is 2 job offers. And 25% of all grads get 1. And about 5% get zero. This is most recent ARRO data. P
Man I thought I was supporting what you were saying, that it is not an absolute **** show yet.Agree with balance, but no one is getting MedGator jobs right? Maybe neurosurgeons?
MedGator isnt giving their job away in 10 years to the likes of me. Let's not get this twisted.
I think you're being completely reasonable, and I hope if people are hearing specific things which sound ridiculous, they're spelled out so we know what's floating around the gossip universe.I feel like I'm being gaslighted into talking about how it's not as bad of an oversupply as people think, even though i agree it's an oversupply.
I think this is spot on, which is why I find it so discouraging, just thinking about human nature.On one hand, I’m sure there are people having a hard time.
On the other, there are all sorts of open jobs paying median salary. Not great, but not a pittance.
It’s going to get bad. If we say it’s “so bad” now, there are data points that make the argument weak. @medgator - how has your income been last few years ? Me? I don’t have an amazing job, but my base is the highest it’s ever been. I have friends doing a pretty well.
So, some balance in the discussion is warranted maybe ?
I think relative oversupply means there is near full employment, without it being necessarily good employment.Larry David lets no one win. Let's not pretend that great PP jobs are not going to sell themselves away eventually. Let's focus on helping residents.
Is anyone making $500k+ BE out of training? Seems rare. All of those jobs afaik require BC with some experience.I think relative oversupply means there is near full employment, without it being necessarily good employment.
Breadline gross oversupply would be literally a substantial portion of us not working in radiation oncology even if we wanted to. I don’t believe the data suggests we are there yet.
Getting >$500k for 40 hours is still happening. And there are open jobs available.
Don’t think of me saying that things are fine. They are not. There are a few open jobs in SE Michigan. Y’all don’t want to work here for whatever reason. But, if you get let go wherever you are, I can guide you to one of those jobs.
I think that’s why “breadline hysteria” is going to cause eye rolls by many.
Yes, there are. Upmc system is an exampleIs anyone making $500k+ BE out of training? Seems rare. All of those jobs afaik require BC with some experience.
Nothing would suggest that situation would be the same for someone entering residency training this month
Ah. Yes.Is anyone making $500k+ BE out of training? Seems rare. All of those jobs afaik require BC with some experience.
Nothing would suggest that situation would be the same for someone entering residency training this month
This is right!Ah. Yes.
So I think we're all generally aware of the sentiment that there are certain jobs where someone who is board certified/with experience is preferred over a new grad. At least on SDN, we kind of abstractly talk about it.
The "problem" (not really a problem, just, reality I guess) is there historically has been very little discussion or understanding about various "job market subdivisions".
As a new grad, your job market is limited mostly by your training program, as in, its reputation and its network. We can pretend your research year projects matter (kidding, occasionally they might) but we all know that certain jobs are only really available if you come out of the right school. Even so, I think this is the most generalized and equitable market, and what I think we're all usually referring to.
After that...well, it depends on the job you took out of residency. Again, using personal experience as anecdote, how I've been received feeling out jobs post-certification with a certain type of experience is VASTLY different than how I was received as a new grad.
Then, getting into mid-career, the market changes again. If you were an academic breast specialist for 15 years, it's probably going to be difficult to get a "good" community generalist gig, if you wanted. Alternatively, you might find yourself completely walled out of academics if you've been in the community for 15 years and want to move to a different city but there's only "academic" jobs available.
We (myself included) are pretty ham-fisted when talking about "the job market" as if it's a monolith.
I am still half-convinced there will always be almost zero unemployment simply because the predatory/exploitative jobs will always been an option, like a sausage grinding carousel.
Are we arguing? Over what? Tell me how 60% of a graduating class getting asst prof jobs leads to proof positive that the average total offers per grad is 1. You are offering, as you admit, your “best guess” of this based on a paper from 2017. First, things may have changed since then, and second, I was quoting the most contemporaneous data available. Is it true that there could be a specialty whose grads get less than a *median* of 2 offers. Sure… I am not the repository of all graduating class workforce data from all specialties. I have not seen that data however, but I do know that 2 is close to zero and that job offers have to be a positive integer or zero. I read through the link you provided; it did not touch on this point at all.If you look at the peds onc job market data and conclude that rad onc clearly has less job offers per graduate, then we can't have a good faith discussion here. Only 60% of peds onc fellows are getting assistant professor jobs - my best guess is they are getting on average less than 1 offer per grad
Does the rad onc market suck? Yes. Is it going to get worse? Yes. Does that mean I can make up any statement about a bad rad onc market that I think "ought" to be true? No.
Anyone want to corroborate that this actually is happening anywhere else (even mayo??)
this is hilarious - you are doing your best rad onc chairman impression - "oh but the data doesn't explicitly contradict what I am saying so I will just go against all common sense and use classic the data is out of date excuse"Are we arguing? Over what? Tell me how 60% of a graduating class getting asst prof jobs leads to proof positive that the average total offers per grad is 1. You are offering, as you admit, your “best guess” of this based on a paper from 2017. First, things may have changed since then, and second, I was quoting the most contemporaneous data available. Is it true that there could be a specialty whose grads get less than a *median* of 2 offers. Sure… I am not the repository of all graduating class workforce data from all specialties. I have not seen that data however, but I do know that 2 is close to zero and that job offers have to be a positive integer or zero. I read through the link you provided; it did not touch on this point at all.
Huh? I said rad onc grads get the fewest job offers per grad. Which is that 50% of rad onc grads get 2 offers or less (the median is 2), based on 2021 data. You said your "best guess" is that peds onc grads have an average of 1 job offer... from a 2017 paper that has zero data about job offers per grad. You seem to be countering the below objective observationsthis is hilarious - you are doing your best rad onc chairman impression - "oh but the data doesn't explicitly contradict what I am saying so I will just go against all common sense and use classic the data is out of date excuse"
with a "best guess" that ped onc grads get an average of 1 job offer per grad. But there is zero pertinent data to back up this guess, yes?Objectively, rad onc has swelled its board certified MD ranks more, relatively, than any other specialty in the US over the last twenty years. Rad onc has had the greatest year over year relative decline in salary over the last ten years than any other specialty. Rad onc grads get significantly fewer job offers than residents in any other specialty. Rad onc’s board certification process is more onerous than any other specialty. The amount Medicare gives each rad onc in part B falls every year, and more cuts via APM are on the way. Rad onc is the least competitive specialty in the match. Of all the oncological subdisciplines, rad onc has the biggest annual percent decline in utilization. Thirty years ago, the average rad onc saw 300 new patients a year… now, it’s 200. And falling.
Rad onc grads get significantly fewer job offers than residents in any other specialty (except maybe peds onc, data TBD).
If I tried to publish a Phase III RCT comparing job outcomes and Arm A had RadOnc while Arm B had Peds Heme/Onc, Vinay Prasad would have a 45 minute podcast rant about the imbalance.Have we reviewed the Aerospace Medicine or Undersea and Hyperbaric Medicine job markets?
These are important data points.
We create demand for Hyperbaric Medicine on a daily basis!Have we reviewed the Aerospace Medicine or Undersea and Hyperbaric Medicine job markets?
These are crucial data points.
I don't know, but these fields, just like Radonc or PhD programs ranging from physics to literary criticism are prone to the same academic forces that eventually push their trainees from having good, real, academic prospects right out of training to being the equivalent of adjunct faculty after several years of post-doc positions or instructorships.I have never met anyone in niche specialties like Peds Heme/Onc who were surprised by their job market, or feel misled by leadership. There's a clear line between RadOnc/EM/Path and Peds Heme/Onc or like...Medical Genetics or whatever.
North Korea style propaganda: radoncs have it good! better than PhD academics and 100% academic ped onc. Problem comes when medstudents rotate through every other specialty where seniors are getting 10+ job offers on average.I don't know, but these fields, just like Radonc or PhD programs ranging from physics to literary criticism are prone to the same academic forces that eventually push their trainees from having good, real, academic prospects right out of training to being the equivalent of adjunct faculty after several years of post-doc positions or instructorships.
Academia as a whole is itself an industry that eats it's young. Most kids shouldn't even be getting undergrad degrees.
Typically, in their desired geography.North Korea style propaganda: radoncs have it good! better than PhD academics and 100% academic ped onc. Problem comes when medstudents rotate through every other specialty where seniors are getting 10+ job offers on average.
KO and hip go together like tuna fish and cigarettes … you know thisYeah I tweeted that to KO. He had to have known …
Meet Robert
He has IIIB NSCLC
10 years ago, chemoRT is the 1st line option almost every time
Now… chemoRT, we hardly knew ye
Meet Robert
He has IIIB NSCLC
10 years ago, chemoRT is the 1st line option almost every time
Now… chemoRT, we hardly knew ye