generally predictable. is that straddling the fence? i think that applicant demographics play a part in admissions, even with private schools. if former students from a particular undergrad have typically done well, then i'm sure that bodes well for anyone from that school.
also, i think a school would want to admit an applicant that they feel will more likely matriculate. thats why a school like BU would probably interview a 3.5 31 rutgers over a 3.9 38 Harvard. its also why u have a better shot at NYU iif ur from tristate/ New england vs. ohio.