I recommend going to the top 5 school, if for no other reason than if, in the future, you don't get the residency of your choice after going to the top 5, you can't blame it on the bossa nova. If you go to the state school, though, you may later look back and wonder what might have been.
(Plus, the people at top schools are smarter, more interesting, and will go more places in the long run. This is GENERALLY true. Yes, some state schoolers will end up at Mass General and win Nobels in Medicine, Peace, and Econ, and some Harvard grads will drop out of life and end up winos, but GENERALLY speaking, the contacts you make at a top 5 school will prove more beneficial in the long run. That, and you'll have more interesting conversations with smarter people at top schools. That's been my experience, anyway.)
Also, going to a great med school helps a ton with competitive residencies. It's true that the fields you're interested in are not especially competitive, but they are competitive in the state of California, and top programs in any field, be it Family Med or Psych, are always competitive. Wouldn't you rather have the luxury of doing heme/onc wherever you like, rather than having to settle?
Sure, a 240 on Step I with a 4.0 GPA from a state school is better than a 205 and a 2.0 from Hopkins (duh; the same logic applies to applying to med school from undergrad), but, assuming that you're going to have the same numbers either way, you're much better off going to the big-name place. In fact, at some big-name med schools, almost no one gets a C in any class, or the classes are pass-fail, while some state schools for unexplained reasons take it upon themselves to torture their students when it comes to grades. So your numbers might actually turn out better from a top 5 school.
Finally, residency programs in California - and most other "hot/cool/hip" states, like Hawaii, Arizona, and Florida - are notorious for favoring applicants from their own state. If you've lived in Cali your entire life but go to med school in, say, Kentucky, you'll be all right applying to Cali residencies. But if you're not from Cali, then going to a Cali school can make all the difference. This, at least, was the experience of many of my friends.
Just my observations.
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