this is a complicated question. i think that most people will agree that the top 15 or so programs tend to match highly qualified medical students that come from top institutions. some may argue that the reason for this is that the top institutions also have top ophthalmology programs. thus, contacts, LORs and phone calls come from people within the field that matter. i have also noticed that highly qualified medical students coming from middle teir medical schools with top ophtho programs (USC, iowa, u of miami, jefferson) also fare will in the match probably for many the same reasons listed above. does this mean that you can't match in ophthalmology if you don't go to harvard or hopkins? NO! it just means you have to be a bit more strategic about the whole process, i.e. consider doing away rotations, research, etc.
to answer OP's question. does this mean that Applicant A with all high passes from a school that is ranked #29 is going to fare better in the match than Applicant B who is AOA from a school that is ranked #59? No and if someone has told you this, than they are looking at this whole process in an overly simplistic manner. so much of the match is based upon factors outside of school rank (LORs, personal statement, how you do on the interview) and factors that are out of your control. i think i have commented on this before but some years, programs may want to take more women than men, some programs favor their own applicants, some programs favor applicants outside of their own institution. your involvement in research at one program was not enough, but at another program was too much for them to take you seriously. the answer to all of this is, apply early and apply to abroad range of programs. concentrate less on the numbers and rankings and more upon your personal statement and CV and what you can bring to the table. remember if you score above a 230 on USMLE, are in the top 1/2 to 1/4 of your class, and receive approximately 10 or so interview invitations you have statistics on yourside in that you will match into an ophthalmology residency program.
Good luck!