Look at the applicants/matriculants data...OOS vs IS and compare that to total.
For example, if a public SOM received 4000 apps for 200 seats, and 20% (800) of apps were IS, then 3200 apps were from OOS.
Then if you look at matriculation numbers and if you're seeing 80% IS and 20% OOS, you might feel hopeful, but really, your app would have to be especially noteworthy (tie to the state, some hook) for the school to even pick yours out of the 3200 for an interview, and end up being one of those 40 OOS who matriculate.
Obviously, the 800 instate applicants have the much better chance. Likely at least half of those instate applicants will be interviewed. Maybe only 200 OOS (6.25%) will be issued an II
Oh, and yes about UWash...if you're not from a WWAMI state then you have virtually no chance.