Score predictions and actual performance?

[theman1990]

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Ok so I take my Step 1 next Wednesday... I've been studying using the FA/Goljans/World Q-bank approach for over three weeks now... I thought I was ready but now I'm worried... My scores so far were:

USMLEWorld self assessment 1: 195 (before I'd yet cracked a book)

SA 2: 220 last wednesday, 2 weeks out from "The Real Deal"

USMLE Timed/totally random 48Q blocks average on never before used questions: ~63-65% for my most recent 10 blocks and no this doesn't include going back and changing answers afterwards... (predicts a 234 on the score predictor)

Ok, now the killer....

NBME 6: 220 Yes.... 220. Predicts 161. Begin worrying...... now.

So anyhow, in school I'm a mostly B's, a few A's student, with one C in Pharm. My three worst grades have been path, phys, and pharm. Needless to say those are what showed up on the NBME 6 bar graph as being low... very low.

So to those who may know... I'm good at reasoning my way through the usmle world questions. however the NBME seemed to be very "What is X" straightforward, which apparently hoses me. Does ANYONE have any input on how 'accurate' the world vs q-bank self assessments are compared to the ACTUAL step 1??

I'd not be worried if I dropped from the 220 to like 210 or something, but OMFG this has been a catastrophic fall. The tests have all been taken under 'test-like' conditions (as much as i can manage) so I can't understand WHAT went wrong???

 

[silas2642]

Ok so I take my Step 1 next Wednesday... I've been studying using the FA/Goljans/World Q-bank approach for over three weeks now... I thought I was ready but now I'm worried... My scores so far were:

USMLEWorld self assessment 1: 195 (before I'd yet cracked a book)

SA 2: 220 last wednesday, 2 weeks out from "The Real Deal"

USMLE Timed/totally random 48Q blocks average on never before used questions: ~63-65% for my most recent 10 blocks and no this doesn't include going back and changing answers afterwards... (predicts a 234 on the score predictor)

Ok, now the killer....

NBME 6: 220 Yes.... 220. Predicts 161. Begin worrying...... now.

So anyhow, in school I'm a mostly B's, a few A's student, with one C in Pharm. My three worst grades have been path, phys, and pharm. Needless to say those are what showed up on the NBME 6 bar graph as being low... very low.

So to those who may know... I'm good at reasoning my way through the usmle world questions. however the NBME seemed to be very "What is X" straightforward, which apparently hoses me. Does ANYONE have any input on how 'accurate' the world vs q-bank self assessments are compared to the ACTUAL step 1??

I'd not be worried if I dropped from the 220 to like 210 or something, but OMFG this has been a catastrophic fall. The tests have all been taken under 'test-like' conditions (as much as i can manage) so I can't understand WHAT went wrong???

The third years at our school have been telling us that the USWA overestimate your scores-- they're probably more for practice than a good assessment/prediction of your score. I've heard that the nice thing about them is that they actually provide explanations for the questions once you're done the exam.

I've been told that the NBME's are pretty dead on and are probably the best estimate of how you're going to perform. Our dean told us that if we take one the weak before the exam and fail or come close to failing it to contact her.

I'd be kind of worried now too... I think at this point I would postpone the exam and then start hitting first aid like there was no tomorrow.

 

[Purp]

Ok so I take my Step 1 next Wednesday... I've been studying using the FA/Goljans/World Q-bank approach for over three weeks now... I thought I was ready but now I'm worried... My scores so far were:

USMLEWorld self assessment 1: 195 (before I'd yet cracked a book)

SA 2: 220 last wednesday, 2 weeks out from "The Real Deal"

USMLE Timed/totally random 48Q blocks average on never before used questions: ~63-65% for my most recent 10 blocks and no this doesn't include going back and changing answers afterwards... (predicts a 234 on the score predictor)

Ok, now the killer....

NBME 6: 220 Yes.... 220. Predicts 161. Begin worrying...... now.

So anyhow, in school I'm a mostly B's, a few A's student, with one C in Pharm. My three worst grades have been path, phys, and pharm. Needless to say those are what showed up on the NBME 6 bar graph as being low... very low.

So to those who may know... I'm good at reasoning my way through the usmle world questions. however the NBME seemed to be very "What is X" straightforward, which apparently hoses me. Does ANYONE have any input on how 'accurate' the world vs q-bank self assessments are compared to the ACTUAL step 1??

I'd not be worried if I dropped from the 220 to like 210 or something, but OMFG this has been a catastrophic fall. The tests have all been taken under 'test-like' conditions (as much as i can manage) so I can't understand WHAT went wrong???

Breathe breathe breathe. I've noticed that the NBME's are a completely different beast from the UW questions. UW if you don't know something dead on, you can work around the question, knock off a couple choices etc.

W/ NBMEs in my experience from 4 & 6, like 65% of the questions are dead on know it or miss it, maybe 20% u can reason through. and then there are like 15% of the questions (for me) that i just had NO IDEA that had to do w/ some obscure megakaryocyte hepatic receptor or something.

I've also noticed that the questions VERY subtlely drop you hints for the answer, more subtle than UW did. I only noticed buzzwords and hints when I reviewed the questions and im like omg i should have gotten that.

And finally, since there are 65% of the questions that are gimmes its MUCH harder to get a higher score because a 75% is now the equivalent of like a 215 whereas if you got that in UW SA you'd get like a 245.

65% on UW to a 161 on NBME is indeed a huge drop though and you should consider pushing the test back a little bit if the next NBME doesn't rise.

 

[future_dr_house]

Take another to see if it was a fluke.

 

[BCon902]

NBMEs are fairly accurate in my case, both predicted 234 and 236 and actual was 239/99, I agree with the above, a lot of questions were know it or not.

 

[theman1990]

Take another to see if it was a fluke.

So I took the free 150 today and made a 79% (237 according to medfriends) which is about what I expected yesterday...

We had a major storm come through yesterday while taking NBME 6 and I lost my internet connection several times, but each time the test 'restarted' just like it should, so I assumed all was ok.

In retrospect I HAVE to wonder if data wasn't lost b/c I was 'guessing' about 230+ for NBME6, so the 160 seems a little.... odd. Ruined my day though, and I came about .000000001th of an inch from rescheduling and taking the first block off. Man I sure hope the free 150 and everything else is accurate for "predictive value"!!!!

 

[future_dr_house]

I'd think you'd get a 220 (by 220, I mean out of the weird 800 "only for NBME" scale) automatically when your credit card clears for the $45 Politely ignore that test and move on confidently. You're where you need to be.