SDNers represent

[Infinitydrop]

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what % of applicants you think?

 

[RogueUnicorn]

100% of those that matter duh

 

[GoSpursGo]

Less than you think.

 

[bannie22]

i think we need a poll here.
but its easy. i see that some of our polls that are more specific to the applicaion year gets around 100-200 votes.

so id say the active members are around 100-200 +/- another 100 or so

with how many? 20000 apps per year... maybe 1%?

 

[Infinitydrop]

40,000 actually
Good idea on the polls, I don't know how to set one of those up though

 

[bannie22]

create a new thread and at the bottom u can choose to open a poll, and create thread, it will bring u to a page to create poll options. but who knows. we would all jsut be guessing

 

[Depakote]

We actually ran the numbers once:

We did a poll regarding this a little earlier this year.

Pre-Allo gets about 6800 unique hits a day.

we had ~500 responders, ~300 were applying this cycle.

Compare this to the ~39,000 applicants in the 2006 cycle.

It's safe to estimate that we get roughly 10-15% of the applicant pool.

Here's where we broke down the official numbers from our survey:

 

[GoSpursGo]

We actually ran the numbers once:




Here's where we broke down the official numbers from our survey:

That... is actually more than I expected 😳

 

[bannie22]

We actually ran the numbers once:




Here's where we broke down the official numbers from our survey:

sorry but tahts quite fail.

=P
300 of 30000 is not 10% LOL😱

 

[Infinitydrop]

you mean 1%?
300 in 39,000?

 

[GoSpursGo]

I think he's extrapolating the nonresponders from the responders; clearly, there are many, many users who utilize this forum each day who simply did not participate in the poll. If you assume that 60% (300/500) of all of the users who come here on a given day (6800) are applying this year (4,080), then that would work out to 10.4% of all applicants (4080/39000).

Now go away if you don't like listening to a math/stats nerd pick apart the methods 😛

Obviously, this poll has a number of problems that can't really be solved:

1)You have to assume that the responders to the poll are representative of everyone who clicks onto pre-allo. That assumption, intuitively, seems false. Clearly, the most active users seem to be the ones who are applying this year, so they might be more inclined to look at more threads and/or contribute to polls such as this one. Furthermore, the poll lacks an appropriate option for users (like me) who hit this forum but have already applied, meaning that that portion of users who hit this forum on a daily bases are obligately nonresponders. Intuitively, it seems like the overall percentage of people who use pre-allo on a given day that are applying might be lower than 60%.

2)On the other hand, a user needn't log on every single day in order to be active on the boards. Surely, the same 6800 users who come on aren't the same from day to day. If you look across a longer time period of say a week or a month, I'm sure the number of unique hits is significantly higher than 6800. Therefore, even if the percentage of users who come onto the site that are applying this year on a given day might be less than 60% because of 1), the raw number of applicants who wind up hitting the site might be higher because of this second effect.

3)I feel like SDN has grown in popularity over the years as more people have heard about it; therefore, in 2009, I would expect that our number of hits has gone up.

So... that's where the 10-15% comes from, and that's why it may or may not be a great estimate 🙂

 

[Contrarian]

10-15% would not surprise me at all. I thought it would be slightly higher, even as high as 30%.

 

[bannie22]

^ there are not that many ppl on these boards...

well, when i was considering the amount of sdners, i was only talking about those that were active. because those are the true sdners, compared to people who just come here once and ask for their chances or what not...

1) there is not supposed to be a poll option for you, because we are only interested in the percentage of students per year... -.-

 

[GoSpursGo]

1) there is not supposed to be a poll option for you, because we are only interested in the percentage of students per year... -.-

Right, but we're still included in the 6800 hits/day, so if you're going to extrapolate the poll results across all of the hits, you have to account for us.

 

[Depakote]

I think he's extrapolating the nonresponders from the responders; clearly, there are many, many users who utilize this forum each day who simply did not participate in the poll. If you assume that 60% (300/500) of all of the users who come here on a given day (6800) are applying this year (4,080), then that would work out to 10.4% of all applicants (4080/39000).

Now go away if you don't like listening to a math/stats nerd pick apart the methods 😛

Obviously, this poll has a number of problems that can't really be solved:

1)You have to assume that the responders to the poll are representative of everyone who clicks onto pre-allo. That assumption, intuitively, seems false. Clearly, the most active users seem to be the ones who are applying this year, so they might be more inclined to look at more threads and/or contribute to polls such as this one. Furthermore, the poll lacks an appropriate option for users (like me) who hit this forum but have already applied, meaning that that portion of users who hit this forum on a daily bases are obligately nonresponders. Intuitively, it seems like the overall percentage of people who use pre-allo on a given day that are applying might be lower than 60%.

2)On the other hand, a user needn't log on every single day in order to be active on the boards. Surely, the same 6800 users who come on aren't the same from day to day. If you look across a longer time period of say a week or a month, I'm sure the number of unique hits is significantly higher than 6800. Therefore, even if the percentage of users who come onto the site that are applying this year on a given day might be less than 60% because of 1), the raw number of applicants who wind up hitting the site might be higher because of this second effect.

3)I feel like SDN has grown in popularity over the years as more people have heard about it; therefore, in 2009, I would expect that our number of hits has gone up.

So... that's where the 10-15% comes from, and that's why it may or may not be a great estimate 🙂

Thanks for posting that, that was the logic we used.