Secondaries This Late

[Avicenna]

Are secondaries sent now (this late in the application) less likely to score IIs? How much less likely? I've been sitting on some that were sent out early August.

How late is it in the game?

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[medbunny56]

following

 

[WedgeDawg]

Depends on the strength of your application.

Overall: the number of interviews you'll get submitting now is likely to be less than the number of interviews you would have gotten if you had sent them out in, say, July

Effect: depends on the strength of your application. An exceptional application may still generate several IIs at this point. A weak application may struggle to generate one.

Chances for acceptance: diminished proportional to the effect size

Number of IIs you will get = A - BX where A is the number you would have gotten with July 1st submissions, B is a constant, and X is the effect size.

I don't understand your third statement. You submitted some secondaries in August, but what do you mean sitting on - you haven't heard anything from them? Or you had them finished in August but just sent them out?

 

[bananafish94]

That depends on a great many factors. If you have unbelievably good stats and an incredible life story, you'll probably be offered an interview regardless of when you submit. If you are closer to average, there are less interviews remaining which probably makes it less likely to get an interview. How much this affects it will depend entirely on the school!

 

[Avicenna]

Depends on the strength of your application.
I don't understand your third statement. You submitted some secondaries in August, but what do you mean sitting on - you haven't heard anything from them? Or you had them finished in August but just sent them out?

No I mean sent from the med school to me, not sent back to the med school.

How bout an avg applicant with a 70 LizzyM

 

[WedgeDawg]

No I mean sent from the med school to me, not sent back to the med school.

Unless the secondary explicitly states it (i.e. UCSF, Wake Forest) the turnaround time means absolutely nothing. Someone who received a secondary July 1 and sent it out Aug 1 is going to be in better shape timing wise than someone who received a secondary August 28th and sent it back August 29th. Someone who got a secondary August 1 and submitted it on the 29th is going to be in exactly the same boat as the person who got it the 28th and submitted it the 29th.

 

[efle]

Depends who you ask. SDN tends to be hyperneurotic and talk about Sept as very late and hugely disadvantageous to be marked complete. But, people in admissions say you're actually totally on time if you hit complete in early Sept - some schools don't even send out their premed committee letters/packets until this month. I'd think of it as "missed a potential advantage from being early" rather than "now super late and disadvantaged." You need to be getting complete status ASAP though if you're still working on secondaries, of course.

Some people even contest the idea that being late is significantly disadvantageous - LizzyM has talked about how the cutoff for an II is pretty static across the cycle in her opinion. The fact that many interview invites go out early (at some places most have already been sent) can be attributed to the fact that superstar/high stats applicants tend to be on top of their crap, complete early, and reviewed early. You'll see lots of premed resources talk about how interviews are scored more often in the early months, but I've never seen data like this presented after controlling for LizzyM/app quality.

At most schools, apps aren't even reviewed in order of complete date. If you submit to WashU tomorrow with an 80 LizzyM I'd bet you end up getting an interview invite decision made on your app before a 72 LizzyM complete a month ago.

TL;DR it depends. Don't get too freaked out about hitting complete in Sept.

 

[NotaCop]

n = 1

LizzyM = 68, balanced. White male, nothing exceptional on my app
submitted 24 secondaries all in september and 1st week of october
ended up with 5 IIs (oct, jan, 3 in march)
4 WL 1 accept
knew for a fact I was interviewing for the WL at 2 schools in march

Moral: you're not early, but you have a chance. Get them in and make them good. It's a long cycle

 

[libertyyne]

Depends on the strength of your application.

Overall: the number of interviews you'll get submitting now is likely to be less than the number of interviews you would have gotten if you had sent them out in, say, July

Effect: depends on the strength of your application. An exceptional application may still generate several IIs at this point. A weak application may struggle to generate one.

Chances for acceptance: diminished proportional to the effect size

Number of IIs you will get = A - BX where A is the number you would have gotten with July 1st submissions, B is a constant, and X is the effect size.

I don't understand your third statement. You submitted some secondaries in August, but what do you mean sitting on - you haven't heard anything from them? Or you had them finished in August but just sent them out?

I like how you outline a theoretical way to look at this, however who knows what the effect size will be ? it could be zero!

 

[Dagrimsta1]

Still submitting myself. Chill out and gettem done!