SF Match stats question re "Avg. # offers per applicant"?

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yeux

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Hey all, on the SF match website is says Avg. # offers per applicant is 4.4 is this the average number of interview offers per applicant or something else?
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I read once (here?) that this number spoke more to how the match algorithm works and reflects where applicants fell on their rank list. Offers would be more like "pairings" that were made but then broken as higher ranked applicants overtook and replaced the initial offer. But... this could definitely be a misunderstanding on my part. You should call the SF Match and ask and report back!
 
Super66 said:
I read once (here?) that this number spoke more to how the match algorithm works and reflects where applicants fell on their rank list. Offers would be more like "pairings" that were made but then broken as higher ranked applicants overtook and replaced the initial offer. But... this could definitely be a misunderstanding on my part. You should call the SF Match and ask and report back!
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This makes more sense to me. Most people seem to have a fair number of interviews, and I know several people with 20 or 30+ interview offers. I'm obviously more likely to see people with more offers on the trail, but I think with the mass applying, 4 interviews/applicant is probably not the average.

Can we also set something else straight? The stats on SF Match are downright confusing, which has led many people (including PDs) to think that the match rate is much higher than it really is for US Seniors. For example, last year there were 726 CAS participants, 634 rank lists, 467 matched (429 US seniors, 25 US grads, 13 IMGs). Where it gets confusing is they give the "Percent Matching" (92% US seniors, 5% US grads, 3% IMGs) and people interpret this as Match rate for US seniors, US grads, and IMGs.

What this really means is 92% of students who matched were US seniors, which can be calculated from 429/467. The actual match rate for US seniors is not given, but can be estimated very roughly from the total number of CAS participants. It's probably somewhere in the 70s, which is much lower than the 90+% I keep hearing from people. I wish SF Match would just give us these numbers, but I thought I would at least bring this up. Not trying to freak people out, but I think it's good to know for future applicants.
 
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It's pointless to agonize over these stats anyways. Like you can assume and calculate and in the end things just play out and there isn't anything you can do. It's hard to have limited control over this situation. So we grasp at anything to try and avoid the reality of the match. it all tends to work out in the end. good luck everyone.


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so i just called and asked SF match about what "avg. # of offers per applicant meant" and gave them the ideas that had been bounced around here. The guy that I talked to said that it meant the average number of programs that ranked an applicant. That is to say, last year on average each applicant was ranked by 4.4 programs at least somewhere on the program's rank list. Hope that helps
 
Yeah, like I said...

That's not helpful. Since some programs go waaaay down on their lists and others never go past 10-15 to fill 4-5 spots. You just don't know.


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cdg0404 said:
so i just called and asked SF match about what "avg. # of offers per applicant meant" and gave them the ideas that had been bounced around here. The guy that I talked to said that it meant the average number of programs that ranked an applicant. That is to say, last year on average each applicant was ranked by 4.4 programs at least somewhere on the program's rank list. Hope that helps
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I find that even more confusing. Does that mean that since most people are interviewing at 7 to 10 places that programs often don't even add them to their rank list?
 
yea idk. sounded weird to me too but thats what the SF Match guy said on the phone, maybe he's wrong. i was just curious and thought I would pass it along, but guess theres no point in us worrying about ambiguous stats at this point
 
cdg0404 said:
yea idk. sounded weird to me too but thats what the SF Match guy said on the phone, maybe he's wrong. i was just curious and thought I would pass it along, but guess theres no point in us worrying about ambiguous stats at this point
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Thanks for calling and sharing!
 
gregoryhouse said:
I find that even more confusing. Does that mean that since most people are interviewing at 7 to 10 places that programs often don't even add them to their rank list?
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I have heard from people that it is not uncommon to only rank approximately half of the people that interview. But I also only heard this from 2 chief residents and my home institution, so this may not be true at all programs.
 
Cheyf said:
I have heard from people that it is not uncommon to only rank approximately half of the people that interview. But I also only heard this from 2 chief residents and my home institution, so this may not be true at all programs.
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I can't find equivalent data for ophthalmology, but looking at NRMP survey data, most Program Directors report ranking almost all (~80%+) their applicants even in competitive specialties like otolaryngology and derm.

2016 NRMP Program Director Survey
www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/.../NRMP-2016-Program-Director-Survey.pdf

Studies show that 90% of ophtho applicants match in their top 4 or 5 choices (depending on the study), and three-quarters match in their top 3, which would make 4.4 seem a bit odd as an average in terms of where people fall on their rank lists. Comparing data to other specialties, it also seems low for the number of places people rank because most people seem to rank around 10 in most specialties. I'm as confused as everyone else!
 
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