Slaughtered in the markets...what's your next move?

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I have been sitting on the sidelines for the past 2 years with a large amount of cash in a money market earning over 5 percent. What should I do? Should I put money into VTI VOO JEPQ VSTAX FSKAX now or something else
 
jsaul said:
I don't need that money for anything now and foreseeable future
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Then any of the above indexes would be good. I don't see a practical need for ETFs so would probably go with a mutual fund like VTSAX or FSKAX if you use vanguard or fidelity, respectively. The expense ratio difference is negligible.

My limited understanding of JEPQ is that it is dividend heavy which may not be ideal for a non-tax advantaged account.
 
This stock market for sure is going down further
Buffett with large cash holdings
Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it goes down 30-40%
10M does seem little- driving by Alta Wyoming or Briggs Idaho- small houses for like 3-4 M
 
Baron Samedi said:
Then any of the above indexes would be good. I don't see a practical need for ETFs so would probably go with a mutual fund like VTSAX or FSKAX if you use vanguard or fidelity, respectively. The expense ratio difference is negligible.

My limited understanding of JEPQ is that it is dividend heavy which may not be ideal for a non-tax advantaged account.
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If the money is not in a tax deferred account, ETFs have a huge advantage. Mutual funds are structured in such a way that they throw off taxable capital gains every year unlike ETFs. The ETF corresponding to a mutual will have the same appreciation without the tax liabilities.

The other thing I dislike about mutual funds is that they are valued and traded once a day. ETFs are traded constantly like stocks. A lot can happen overnight...
 
since i started investing in 1989...


djia 8 5 24.GIF


i think ill survive...
 
pastafan said:
If the money is not in a tax deferred account, ETFs have a huge advantage. Mutual funds are structured in such a way that they throw off taxable capital gains every year unlike ETFs. The ETF corresponding to a mutual will have the same appreciation without the tax liabilities.

The other thing I dislike about mutual funds is that they are valued and traded once a day. ETFs are traded constantly like stocks. A lot can happen overnight...
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On an index fund, the tax differences are negligible. On actively managed funds, I agree that it can make a difference.

In regard to your second point, I'll just leave this here: https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/
 
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jsaul said:
I have been sitting on the sidelines for the past 2 years with a large amount of cash in a money market earning over 5 percent. What should I do? Should I put money into VTI VOO JEPQ VSTAX FSKAX now or something else
Click to expand...
reposting here
Volatility spikes like this are historically bullish and forward returns are off the charts. In order to have a bear market or a real correction of any kind, the prices of stocks need to fall. But none of the new lows lists are getting longer. With the $VIX basically tripling overnight for the first time in stock market history, one would think you'd see more stocks hitting new 52-week lows. But you didn't see many at all.
Investing now in a bull market is never a bad play, but if you're waiting for a correction this isn't it... yet...
 
Gauss said:
reposting here
Volatility spikes like this are historically bullish and forward returns are off the charts. In order to have a bear market or a real correction of any kind, the prices of stocks need to fall. But none of the new lows lists are getting longer. With the $VIX basically tripling overnight for the first time in stock market history, one would think you'd see more stocks hitting new 52-week lows. But you didn't see many at all.
Investing now in a bull market is never a bad play, but if you're waiting for a correction this isn't it... yet...
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So you disagree with Berkshire Hathaway?
 
SpineandWine said:
So you disagree with Berkshire Hathaway?
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How many of the Warren Buffett cash experts are calculating his “record cash levels” as a percentage of total assets? The reason they’re leaving that part out is because it makes it easier to fool dumb people. Don’t be dumb people.
 
I bought 20k in NVDA at $100. On the first big dip down to $102 I bought $110 calls for 8/16. Felt pretty smart the next morning. Figured this thing's going back to $125 easy. Then I went to do a procedure and the whole damn market collapsed.
 
pastafan said:
If the money is not in a tax deferred account, ETFs have a huge advantage. Mutual funds are structured in such a way that they throw off taxable capital gains every year unlike ETFs. The ETF corresponding to a mutual will have the same appreciation without the tax liabilities.

The other thing I dislike about mutual funds is that they are valued and traded once a day. ETFs are traded constantly like stocks. A lot can happen overnight...
Click to expand...
That is only a huge advantage is you know with absolute certainty your tax rate will not be higher in the future.
 
Do u all think there's a crash coming? I have some money piled up. But not sure if I should average it in now or wait for a correction. Thoughts
 
PinchandBurn said:
Do u all think there's a crash coming? I have some money piled up. But not sure if I should average it in now or wait for a correction. Thoughts
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You can't time the market. It should be based on your financial security needs.

Consider a scenario where you lose your job AND all your investments lose 50% of their value for 10 full years and then slowly creep back up. That should strain you but not destroy you. If that wouldn't put a strain on your daily life, you need to invest more. If that would destroy you, get yourself a better cushion.
 
PinchandBurn said:
Do u all think there's a crash coming? I have some money piled up. But not sure if I should average it in now or wait for a correction. Thoughts
Click to expand...

When do you need the money? If your horizon is 20 years, invest in the market.

Low cost broad market funds.

Statistically, lump sum investing wins out over dollar cost averaging about 2/3rds of the time. But if you will be greatly bothered if the market drops, psychologically it may be better to dollar cost average.

Regarding market correction. That is difficult to predict. The US market went down a decent bit in the last several days but is still higher than a year ago.

No one can predict anything so if you want to invest, just invest
 
What is considered a “crash” vs a correction? It seems like everyone panicked last week but the S&P is still up 19% YTD
 
DJIA is now 200 points higher than when it was when it supposedly crashed on august 5th.

Stay on target.


the data suggests lump sum investing is better but that presupposes that one has a huge lump sum to invest.

If one is salaried, one does not have a huge lump sum to invest, unless they happenchance somehow get a huge amount.
 
powermd said:
I bought 20k in NVDA at $100. On the first big dip down to $102 I bought $110 calls for 8/16. Felt pretty smart the next morning. Figured this thing's going back to $125 easy. Then I went to do a procedure and the whole damn market collapsed.
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Looking like your calls might end up ok.

I bought another 10 NVDA shares last week at $99 and then $98. That is currently up 18% in a week. Of course that is nothing compared to the ROI on the NVDA shares I bought back in 2020 at $10. Very frustrated I was just a resident with minimal investing money back then, wanted to buy a ton of it.

Now it will crash tomorrow probably
 
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mdo1738 said:
Looking like your calls might end up ok.

I bought another 10 NVDA shares last week at $99 and then $98. That is currently up 18% in a week. Of course that is nothing compared to the ROI on the NVDA shares I bought back in 2020 at $10. Very frustrated I was just a resident with minimal investing money back then, wanted to buy a ton of it.

Now it will crash tomorrow probably
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Sold my calls yesterday for $7.35, up about 2x. Not going to chance it in this market with a Friday experiation! I've been a subscriber to Cody Willard's newsletter since 2010 and he was hot of NVDA from under $10. At the time I was thinking- the company that makes graphics accelerators for gamers?? Yeah. I did that with a lot of Cody's picks.... FB, TSLA, many more. Currently he likes PFE a lot if you can get it for $27.50.
 
hyperalgesia said:
Put it all in DJT haha
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how the orange tub of goo can rake in billions from a that POS trump media company is insane. lots of suckers out there. this whole thing is a con for him.

www.propublica.org

Exec at Trump Media Jumped the Line for U.S. Visa After Company Lobbied GOP Lawmaker

A former aide to Rep. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, said she intervened on the company’s behalf even though she thought it was inappropriate. “It was specifically the congressman that suggested I needed to deal with it.”
www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
 
SSdoc33 said:
how the orange tub of goo can rake in billions from a that POS trump media company is insane. lots of suckers out there. this whole thing is a con for him.

www.propublica.org

Exec at Trump Media Jumped the Line for U.S. Visa After Company Lobbied GOP Lawmaker

A former aide to Rep. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, said she intervened on the company’s behalf even though she thought it was inappropriate. “It was specifically the congressman that suggested I needed to deal with it.”
www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
Click to expand...
You're not a sucker if you invest and he wins the election and you make millions...
 
or it will go the way of much of trumps businesses. who remembers trump vodka. trump airlines. trump university. trump casinos. trump board game. trump bottled (supposedly tap) water. trump fragrances. trump mortgage LLC.


if he loses, the stock - which was up at what, $66 per share? - will crater to $19 per share.

oh wait that has already happened.
 
If you google “does the stock market go up more with Republican presidents or Democratic presidents?” You’ll see a host of articles and reviews on this subject.

It seems that the data can be massaged to make either party look like the “better” one in this regard.

I think the bigger risk is having an aligned house/senate/exec—having them all R or all D makes it much more likely to have relatively extreme policies actualized.
 
actually, all the citations on the first page of the search - 8 of them (combining 2 from motley fool and the wikipedia one) all say that stock market returns are better under democrat president.

even the one article "favoring" republican presidents (reasearchaffiliates.com) says that it is just unlucky that republican presidents were at the hub during great economic upheaval while admitting that the stock market does better during democrat presidencies

of note the article lacks introspection as it gives dem presidents credit yet does not impugn whether the republican president may have contributed to the economic collapse, and it does not include the recent covid influenced downturn.



the first article sparces the information the best.

of all the scenarios, the best one for stock market growth is a Democrat Executive with Republican Congress.

the worst is a Republican President and a Democrat Congress.

unified president and congress are high, in the middle and roughly equal.
 
Yes but there are some challenges here… the R and the Ds flipped their views and policies over time…so trying to do a binary comparison isn’t that helpful. If you look at more recent numbers…then yes you’re correct…but it’s not a particularly long timespan to look at.

In aggregate, it seems unwise to use the party of the presidential candidate as a significant forecasting tool for somebody’s financial planning.
 
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