Sour grapes

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Ok, I'm busted. I'm a degenerate gambler. It's either the markets or my cousin Bea and I cougaring at the track as we plunge our brains out on the ponies.
 
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Amazon just added McDonalds market cap in the month of January alone. Thanks to price-insensitive passive indexers.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Ok, I'm busted. I'm a degenerate gambler. It's either the markets or my cousin Bea and I cougaring at the track as we plunge our brains out on the ponies.
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well you certainly may have set a record for starting a thread talking about Bogleheads and then having the most posts 100% in contradiction to everything you read there, so I guess congrats on that!
 
While most of this thread could be well played trolling, it is a good read for new investors. The OP provides much of the unsound advise for market timing and waiting for value.

1st - There is always value to be found. New companies are breaking out all the time.

2nd - We can’t time the market. In the 2008-9 crash, everyone panicked. They pulled money out and lost a lot by being out of the market over the next few years. Then the market went to 17,000 and again people panicked because it was a “bubble”. Many friends of mine pulled out. Now the market has gone to 25,000+. Those market timers lost huge again due to fearing a bubble.

So far, everyone I’ve met that has attempted to time the overall market has failed. It can’t be accurately and reliably done.

The Boglehead mentality is the safest and most effective route for the risk involved.
 
So much of USG revenue is dependent on stocks going up. Corporate execs are compensated mainly thru stock options. There's your income tax right there. If stocks fall then US nominally defaults. Hence G5 central bank QE continues at ever rapid pace. It's all fungible. in spite of Fed tightening, BoJ, ECB, and PBoC have pedal to the metal.

If stocks were to fall 10% and stay there for a few months then pensions start blowing up. What has happened the last two years whenever stocks fell 10%? V-shaped recovering. Are other CBs covertly buying stocks besides the SNB and BoJ?

 
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Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Did I just get sucked into a top during January? Having sat out the market all these years, I had recently read all the books recommended by the Bogleheads and all my friends were bragging about how much money they making. I was missing out. Now I'm down and it looks like the market is going to negative 5000. Will I owe money if it goes below zero?
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Had you listened to the Bogleheads, you would have been in the market all along. Your poor, non evidence-based issue, not theirs.
 
slurpy15 said:
Had you listened to the Bogleheads, you would have been in the market all along. Your poor, non evidence-based issue, not theirs.
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Bogleheads have unrealized gains at risk of major haircut. They haven't made anything yet. Check out Steve Bregman.
 
OMG! He's a total fraud. Not evidence-based at all.

To each his own, I suppose.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Bogleheads have unrealized gains at risk of major haircut. They haven't made anything yet. Check out Steve Bregman.
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Since no Boglehead owns stocks with money they will need for at least 10 years, it doesn't matter if the prices drop in the short term. A true Boglehead doesn't know and doesn't care.
 
Mman said:
Since no Boglehead owns stocks with money they will need for at least 10 years, it doesn't matter if the prices drop in the short term. A true Boglehead doesn't know and doesn't care.
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Then you have to watch the deflator. If you ever get back nominally years after a crash, what are the real gains. Run that exercise with today's markets compared to the 2000 price levels. If you use BLS data which understates real CPI the S&P inflation adjusted from year 2000 would be equivalent to 2200 today. Today it's 2700. A crummy 22% gain in real terms after 18 years. Now if you use real CPI data you are actually underwater in real terms. And to make matters worse the tax man doesn't care about real gains, just nominal.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Then you have to watch the deflator. If you ever get back nominally years after a crash, what are the real gains. Run that exercise with today's markets compared to the 2000 price levels. If you use BLS data which understates real CPI the S&P inflation adjusted from year 2000 would be equivalent to 2200 today. Today it's 2700. A crummy 22% gain in real terms after 18 years. Now if you use real CPI data you are actually underwater in real terms. And to make matters worse the tax man doesn't care about real gains, just nominal.
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But that's just being stupid. If you were investing all along the way (like a Boglehead would) you'd have totally normal returns long term because you would've been investing at bottoms along the way like 2002 and 2003 and 2008. It's only the dollars invested exactly in 2000 that showed the return you quote. Then again you aren't even counting the dividends which probably averaged about 2% per year over that time frame, or an additional 36% (on top of the 22% you claim).


The moral of the story is you are either a troll or should not be trusted to invest your own money because you are basically totally wrong in your assessments and instincts.

If you want the actual numbers, here's a handy calculator. Every $ invested in S&P 500 in February 2000 and held til February 2008 returned 178%, or 92% when adjusted for inflation via CPI. Is that great? Of course not, but that's cherry picking from a market top and basically your current worst case scenario.

If you can't even figure out the correct data for returns in the past, you certainly shouldn't try to pretend you can call market tops and bottoms in the future.
 
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slurpy15 said:
Had you listened to the Bogleheads, you would have been in the market all along. Your poor, non evidence-based issue, not theirs.
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Mman said:
Since no Boglehead owns stocks with money they will need for at least 10 years, it doesn't matter if the prices drop in the short term. A true Boglehead doesn't know and doesn't care.
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The Physician Philosopher said:
Agreed. That's why I haven't responded to any of this.

If you want to read what's going on here... I recommend this post by The College Investor on Financial Whataboutism. It'll explain exactly what the OP is doing and why you can't combat it. Don't waste your time.
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It is obvious that he is trying to throw out every kind of advice that is counter to traditional Boglehead style advice. He likely knows there are many people on this forum that feel the Boglehead philosophy is best, so he wants a rise out of it. I'm not so sure its Whataboutism as much as just plain trolling.
 
slurpy15 said:
One wonders...what does OP get out of it? Why not follow the evidence?
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Bogleheads look into the rear view mirror oblivious to what's been driving asset prices. The macro view is forward looking and anticipates crises.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Then you have to watch the deflator. If you ever get back nominally years after a crash, what are the real gains. Run that exercise with today's markets compared to the 2000 price levels. If you use BLS data which understates real CPI the S&P inflation adjusted from year 2000 would be equivalent to 2200 today. Today it's 2700. A crummy 22% gain in real terms after 18 years. Now if you use real CPI data you are actually underwater in real terms. And to make matters worse the tax man doesn't care about real gains, just nominal.
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You're forgetting the CONSISTENT INVESTMENT part of things. The money that was there in 2000 was added in the years prior, and thus gained substantial value to reach its peak, and money would have been added in the following years to take advantage of market gains after the crash. People don't make one time buy and hold investments in the market and then just sit there like *******es, generally.
 
Mad Jack said:
Feel free to try it. Studies show over 90% of market timers fail to beat the average.
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It's not about timing. it's about enduring the gom jabbar. The animal chews it's leg off to escape a trap. The human feigns death & lies in wait to kill the captor. All you have to do is position for a tail event and wait. And there's a tail event coming...big time.

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Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Do you know why asset prices have gone up since 2009? And what will happen when the mother of all leveragings unwinds? Of course not. And this is why you'll get slaughtered.
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Kek why aren't you retired yet with your amazing financial skills? Show me the billions, Buffett.
 
Mad Jack said:
Kek why aren't you retired yet with your amazing financial skills? Show me the billions, Buffett.
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I could retire right now, but the interventions to save the system since 2008 prevent that. Have you noticed interest rates the last ten years. I've donated a pretty penny of lost interest to keep the banks afloat and collateral values elevated. But all these machinations will fail and I'll get my deferred interest back and then some.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
I could retire right now, but the interventions to save the system since 2008 prevent that. Have you noticed interest rates the last ten years. I've donated a pretty penny of lost interest to keep the banks afloat and collateral values elevated. But all these machinations will fail and I'll get my deferred interest back and then some.
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No one but a fool retires on interest alone. You foolishly invested and now you're paying the price.
 
ROFL. I think OP missed out on one of the great investment opportunities of our lifetimes...and is paying the price.
 
slurpy15 said:
So...you either can or can't retire right now. Which is it?
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I don't like eating into principal. I would have critical mass if real rates were above 2%. I refused to be lured out onto the risk curve chasing yield so I've done something else and have waited patiently.
 
slurpy15 said:
ROFL. I think OP missed out on one of the great investment opportunities of our lifetimes...and is paying the price.
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Are you still at the table? If haven't realized any gains then you haven't made anything. What's so dangerous about these times is that even if leave the casino table you have to decide where to park your gains.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Bogleheads look into the rear view mirror oblivious to what's been driving asset prices. The macro view is forward looking and anticipates crises.
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actually bogleheads use the best objective evidence to guide their decision making. Kinda like evidence based medicine. Are you a witch doctor or do you read actual real journals in your specialty? You are offering financial advice that is akin to asking your patient to continue smoking or to exercise less.
 
Mman said:
actually bogleheads use the best statistical evidence to guide their decision making. Kinda like evidence based medicine. Are you a witch doctor or do you read actual real journals in your specialty?
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Same reason I don't trust religious doctors- how can you be evidence-based in one area of your life and not another?
 
Bogleism is oblivious to the secular credit wave. Wall Street doesn't mind. CFPs love it for it absolves them of true fiduciary responsibility. When assets go pear-shaped asset managers can say, "Oh darling, you're in it for the long run. Now keep on investing money every pay period regardless of price like a good little boy/girl. You can't time the market, you know." What they're really thinking: Don't even think of selling, chump. I'm paid by AUM. Your money is mine! Of course, the markets were overvalued and the bulk of the money you shoveled in will never see any real gains. You're what's being harvested."
 
slurpy15 said:
Same reason I don't trust religious doctors- how can you be evidence-based in one area of your life and not another?
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If you want to be evidence-based you have to be cognizant of financial history. You have to go way back to capture an entire secular wave. Bogleism just popped up the last couple decades during one phase of this grand cycle which has been extended by G5 central bank balance sheet expansion. The Bogle philosophy has mispositioned entire generations ( Boomers, GenXers, and Millennials) for what's coming. This is why the Wave is what it is. The final phase is only experienced once in a typical human lifespan. The last people that suffered it have all died off for the most part. This is what the central banks have been protecting you from since 2008. But they will fail. In fact, the head of the central bank for central banks said so a couple years ago. Sovereign debt will be recognized as the most toxic asset of all. But there is a solution. I'm front-running it. You can see this coming as plain as day. The earmarks are showing up more frequently almost multiple times a day. The US media won't inform you of the happenings. It's too busy distracting the populace with fake news.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Bogleism is oblivious to the secular credit wave. Wall Street doesn't mind. CFPs love it for it absolves them of true fiduciary responsibility. When assets go pear-shaped asset managers can say, "Oh darling, you're in it for the long run. Now keep on investing money every pay period regardless of price like a good little boy/girl. You can't time the market, you know." What they're really thinking: Don't even think of selling, chump. I'm paid by AUM. Your money is mine! Of course, the markets were overvalued and the bulk of the money you shoveled in will never see any real gains. You're what's being harvested."
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you could at least pretend to understand the meaning of the words you type. Bogleheads aren't paying large fees. They are paying the tiniest fees around. Some of Vanguards funds charge less than 0.05%.
 
Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
We have a crisis every 10 years or so, And each is bigger than the previous. Why not be patient and wait for price to come to you? There will be a sale.
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There will in my lifetime be another crisis. It may be bigger than 2008. Or it might not be. Hell, for the last 80 years, we've had a recession approximately every 5 years, and we're ~9 years since the end of the last one, so you could even argue we're overdue.

In fact, I'll agree there's irrational exuberance in the market and too much money flowing in when it is overpriced relative to historic norms.

And yet... I still have all my money invested in passively managed index funds. Why?

Well, let's go back to that phrase irrational exuberance. Greenspan was absolutely correct when he uttered it... in 1996. It was a great phrase, one that Shiller used to title one of his books.

The problem is, that between when that phrase was uttered and the peak of the market 4 years later, it went up an additional 65%. Even with the dot com crash, it never dropped to as low as it was in 1996 when everyone was already irrationally exuberant. Now, we're 22 years later, and the market, by any and all measurements, has never been that low again. If you had the foresight then to know a crash was coming and sat out waiting for it to go below that point... you'd still be waiting.

You sit out now, and you might get "lucky" and have a crash come next week. But it might also come in three years and have the trough be above where you could buy in today.

I'd rather invest my money continuously, hold it, and see where the markets take me. It is the more historically successful strategy. On average. Good luck to you otherwise.

Dr. Galazkiewicz said:
Because I don't watch porn on the interwebz. I spend my time watching vids like
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I think I'd rather watch porn.
 
Raryn said:
it never dropped to as low as it was in 1996 when everyone was already irrationally exuberant. Now, we're 22 years later, and the market, by any and all measurements, has never been that low again.
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If have to adjust for inflation. Nominal gains are meaningless. Plus, there's a problem with investing continuously...volatility impairs the long term compounding. Spitznagel Blasts 'Buy-And-Hold': "It's More Like Hope & Prayer" From Here

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