SpaceX
Started by urge
I wouldn’t buy it first day. It will be nuts the first day.
Wait 1-2 months
Of course I say this buying Facebook ipo and it launched at $38/share It went up briefly to $50? The first day and dipped to $38 again. I got it at $38 and rode it DOWN to $19 before selling it months later lol….
I did buy Facebook again at $80 and $160/share
Spacex likely will launch at much higher than $130/share.
Wait 1-2 months
Of course I say this buying Facebook ipo and it launched at $38/share It went up briefly to $50? The first day and dipped to $38 again. I got it at $38 and rode it DOWN to $19 before selling it months later lol….
I did buy Facebook again at $80 and $160/share
Spacex likely will launch at much higher than $130/share.
Well done!
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Nay
In fact I'm actively looking for more ways to tilt my portfolio away from the tech growth sector, particularly AI.
I am a big fan of SpaceX and I'm typing this over Starlink connection right now, but if/when it finds its way into larger indexes I'll look for ways to tilt away from that too.
In fact I'm actively looking for more ways to tilt my portfolio away from the tech growth sector, particularly AI.
I am a big fan of SpaceX and I'm typing this over Starlink connection right now, but if/when it finds its way into larger indexes I'll look for ways to tilt away from that too.
The valuation is insane. But yes. It'll be hard to avoid. I'll always have some exposure to AI and soon SpaceX too, but I started tilting away from total market and toward value last year.
Of course, nobody knows anything ...
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SpaceX is currently trading at $130/share in the private market so I think the price is a fair market price at $135. Whether or not it’s worth that is debatable.
SpaceX will quickly (at 15 days?) be incorporated into Nasdaq Index and at a year into S&P 500. So it’s only a matter of time before anyone who owns an index fund owns SpaceX shares.
Given the above I’ll be buying shares of the IPO. My understand at this time is the shares are in 100 increments. Not sure how much I’ll buy, but something close to how much I’d own if it were immediately incorporated into the S&P 500. Once it gets incorporated into S&P 500 and I own some through indexes, I’ll sell existing SpaceX shares so I’m not overweight.
I think this makes sense? What do y’all think?
SpaceX will quickly (at 15 days?) be incorporated into Nasdaq Index and at a year into S&P 500. So it’s only a matter of time before anyone who owns an index fund owns SpaceX shares.
Given the above I’ll be buying shares of the IPO. My understand at this time is the shares are in 100 increments. Not sure how much I’ll buy, but something close to how much I’d own if it were immediately incorporated into the S&P 500. Once it gets incorporated into S&P 500 and I own some through indexes, I’ll sell existing SpaceX shares so I’m not overweight.
I think this makes sense? What do y’all think?
Prob wait a month or so, then jump in for the long haul. Never bet against Musk. SpaceX owns space and no one is even close. If they ever get data centers into space, its essentially game over.
I wouldn't bet against Musk (or the USA) but data centers in orbit is a stupid idea that will never happen at scale. There's just no good reason to accept the downsides when there's plenty of room on earth to build them that doesn't have the power, cooling, radiation, latency, obsolescence, disposal, and maintenance problems of being in orbit.
Its a fantastically ridiculous idea and I can't believe anyone is proposing it seriously much less taking it seriously.
Musk isn't dumb enough to believe it's viable, but I think he's happy to pay lip service to the idea, in the hopes of selling more launches funded by ... I don't know, it's hard to imagine who'd spend their own money on that.
I think people are crazy, I have a few grand that I could throw that way to hopefully make a quick buck.
Yup, the astronomical cost of launching tons of heavy, shielded servers into orbit completely negates any terrestrial energy or real estate savings. Musk is happy to pay lip service to wild ideas like orbital data centers bc if some heavily funded startup decides to try it, they have to pay SpaceX for the launch. The launch provider wins regardless of whether the payload's business model actually succeeds.
In any gold rush, the most reliable returns come from selling the shovels. In the space economy, launch providers and aerospace manufacturers are the shovel sellers
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People said building an electrical care company was impossible. People said building a car company was impossible. People said reusable rockets were impossible. People said landing on a boat was impossible. People said catching with chopsticks was impossible. People said FSD was impossible.
Musk will end as one of the most influential/important person in our lifetime and I do not think this is even debatable.
Bulls have made lots of $$$ and bears have been ravaged. Bet against him at your own risk.
Musk will end as one of the most influential/important person in our lifetime and I do not think this is even debatable.
Bulls have made lots of $$$ and bears have been ravaged. Bet against him at your own risk.
Technically FSD is not fully viable yet the was originally envisioned, but still very good. Given the government support/sponsorships it’s unlikely SpaceX will fully crash and burn. What is interesting to note the current market cap evaluation of SpaceX and its shell game of SpaceX/xAI/Twitter.
My sister paid $8k for FSD in her 2018 Model S which was promised just around the corner. Still waiting.
100%. Musk is the founder of 2 of the top 10 largest companies of all time. And a major investor in a third if you count OpenAI.
Do I have some issues with Elon Musk? Absolutely, but I can't knock the dude for quite literally reaching for the stars. I hate anyone who says "stick to sports" but if Elon sticks with the ideas the float around his head he could really move things forward. I'm not the most stock market savvy in the world but my initial question was how is Space X going to be profitable until they start sending people (tourists) to the Moon or Mars? There's actually a pretty fascinating docudrama on NatGeo about Space X's quest to send a team to Mars and quite frankly that's the Elon I'm a fan or, not the DOGE one.
Let’s just say SpaceX would not exist without feeding at the government trough.
The Ultimate ROI of SpaceX Is Tech Progress, Not Tax Payments
Debating whether SpaceX and similar firms should face higher tax bills is hardly unreasonable. Yet that misses the bigger picture. An important way taxpayers should assess the return on such public spending, like SpaceX contracts, is in the economic, technological, and strategic benefits these...
www.aei.org
DOGE’s Pentagon Budget Cuts Don’t Touch Elon Musk’s SpaceX
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth boasts he’s nixing contracts and grants amid DOGE’s cost-cutting campaign. But those trims won’t hit SpaceX.
theintercept.com
I don't disagree with any of that (except the weird hyperbole of "people" saying an electric car co was impossible - that's some selective memory).
Orbital data centers aren't IMPOSSIBLE. They're STUPID and POINTLESS.
I don't doubt the technical ability of someone making them. I doubt the economic case for actually doing it.
And Musk isn't going to buy them. He's not dumb. As noted above, he's selling shovels in a gold rush.
I'm just saying orbital data centers are fools gold.
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Kessler syndrome won't happen because of data centers in orbit, because nobody's going to put more than a couple of demos in orbit - and that only to grift some gullible venture capital from people making longshot bets on something they don't understand.
In any case, these veryLEO constellations are too low in orbit with too much atmospheric drag to cause an actual Kessler syndrome. It's more of a concern for higher orbits and all the junk up there already.
One year is just one of the requirements. SpaceX has to be profitable for the consecutive 4 quarters (accumulated) and profitable for the latest Q. This is not going to happen anytime soon.
Not saying anyone on here said it but Tsla Bears have historically said an electric car company would be nothing more than a niche product b/c of batter life, charging, cost, repair, expense, etc. Tsla is one of if not the best selling car model past 3 yrs.
I don't think it is debatable that he has done things we thought were "sci-fi" impossible
Unfortunately Tesla is losing ground to BYD worldwide.
This PHEV has a 900mi range and costs under $18k in most of the world.
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Not gonna debate Musk/Tesla as I know the haters will debate every pointless point. Comparing a BEV to PHEV is like apples and oranges.
Regardless, TSLA is not a car company. They just make it as a means to an end.
Regardless, TSLA is not a car company. They just make it as a means to an end.
LOL of course it's debatable .
Rapid full reuse of orbital rockets - that was the plan for the Space Shuttle five decades ago! People have been working on it for about as long as we've been alive.
It was hard, but nobody EVER thought it was "impossible" - at most, the SpaceX doubters thought that company was chasing an economic dead end, because they didn't have his vision to see a market beyond government propping up disposable launch vehicles.
The only reason nobody tried sooner than Musk was because there was a tiny, tiny market for launch and the government was happy to pay $billions upon $billions to repeatedly drop boosters in the ocean - why would any of the legacy space companies go differently?
Musk's genius was 1) having a plan for also creating the market for abundant cheap launch (Starlink), and 2) the fast iteration and tolerance for failure, also very different than legacy space, and 3) stepping away and letting Gwynne Shotwell actually do the hard parts of running SpaceX. (Even so, SpaceX was ONE Falcon 1 failure away from collapsing completely.)
If you're actually interested in the SpaceX story beyond the Musk cult, I'd recommend Eric Berger's book, Liftoff.
My money guy says buy. 🤷♀️ he’s done well so far so….:
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China EVs and even their Phev like Samsung phones have been known to highly inflate and manipulate tests to jack up stats like range.
Just google how Chinese test their range. Most estimates say the stated range is often times 30% if using the same USA testing range standard.
“
CLTC (China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle), which generates range estimates about 30% to 35% higher than the U.S. EPA ratings. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The gap comes down to how the tests are structured:
- U.S. EPA Standard: Heavily emphasizes high-speed highway driving, rapid acceleration, and runs climate control. This yields realistic, conservative, real-world highway numbers. [1]
- China CLTC Standard: Heavily skews toward low-speed, stop-and-go city driving with very gentle acceleration and no climate control running. This yields inflated, theoretical numbers that drop noticeably on a real-world highway”
And also google “battery locking” by the Chinese manipulation of software that further reduces range and also causes charging times to significantly increase almost 50% of time to charge.
Tesla, BYD, others deny they were summoned by Chinese regulators over battery locking concerns
The controversy also points to a broader issue in modern cars: Software can now change how a vehicle behaves long after it leaves the dealership.
I love how people always bring up BYD and how they are eating Tesla's Lunch. Just read the headlines without understanding the underlying companies.
China EVs and even their Phev like Samsung phones have been known to highly inflate and manipulate tests to jack up stats like range.
Just google how Chinese test their range. Most estimates say the stated range is often times 30% if using the same USA testing range standard.
“
CLTC (China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle), which generates range estimates about 30% to 35% higher than the U.S. EPA ratings. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The gap comes down to how the tests are structured:
- U.S. EPA Standard: Heavily emphasizes high-speed highway driving, rapid acceleration, and runs climate control. This yields realistic, conservative, real-world highway numbers. [1]
- China CLTC Standard: Heavily skews toward low-speed, stop-and-go city driving with very gentle acceleration and no climate control running. This yields inflated, theoretical numbers that drop noticeably on a real-world highway”
And also google “battery locking” by the Chinese manipulation of software that further reduces range and also causes charging times to significantly increase almost 50% of time to charge.
Tesla, BYD, others deny they were summoned by Chinese regulators over battery locking concerns
The controversy also points to a broader issue in modern cars: Software can now change how a vehicle behaves long after it leaves the dealership.autos.yahoo.com
Yeah and I get 190-200 mi range after I fully charge my Tesla to “265 miles”. What do you get?
“What Ponsin didn’t know was that Tesla employees had been instructed to thwart any customers complaining about poor driving range from bringing their vehicles in for service. Last summer, the company quietly created a “Diversion Team” in Las Vegas to cancel as many range-related appointments as possible.
The Austin, Texas-based electric carmaker deployed the team because its service centers were inundated with appointments from owners who had expected better performance based on the company’s advertised estimates and the projections displayed by the in-dash range meters of the cars themselves, according to several people familiar with the matter.“
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My financial guy is at Merrill Lynch and BoA is doing the ipo so we can buy it first cheaper (thanks for explaining aneftp) so I’m in for 100k. My guys done well so far… he said he may get in and get out…. We will see Friday. If it blows I guess I’ll keep working ;-)
