I've gotten this question alot specifically towards me lately for some reason. Tis' the season I guess. Because of that I'll expand upon once and for all why it's illogical to apply lower tier OOS heavy with above avg stats in a state with a >35% IS matriculation
For the purposes of this discussion we'll use the example of NE and assume OP is an NE resident. But it holds true for all states like this. You can look at this table to see where your state stands.
https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstablea5.pdf
Any state with a 35+% IS matriculation rate this holds true for. IMHO throw in Indiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and maybe even Michigan into this category(MI really depends on the quality of applicant).
1) You'll very likely get into your state school.
a) 3.6/28 is the average applicant stats in NE last year. SD on the MCAT 4.8
b) 3.7/30.4 is the average matriculant stats in NE last year. SD on the MCAT 3.3
c) Roughly around 40% of people who apply to U of Nebraska who are IS get accepted. Probably 30% of the pool you can throw out from the start as being non competitive(ie <26 MCAT as an ex).
d) The IS app/matriculant ratio for U of Nebraska is 2.9. For these lower tier OOS schools people on SDN freely recommend, it's usually 70+ OOS apps/matriculant. For the NYMC, Drexel types, it's 90+. That's a 25-30X difference.
Take away: You are very likely to get into your state school. IF you don't it likely means something went really wrong in the interview or you have a red flag. And if you do, Rush's and NYMC's of the world where your odds based off numbers alone are roughly 20X worse are rather unlikely to bail you out if that flaw is big enough U of Nebraska is passing on you at 3.9/514
2) The people who matriculate OOS in Nebraska are not the typical borderline applicants
a) Only 22 people matriculated OOS in NE last year. The IS number does include some people from Creighton(you should apply to Creighton if you are a NE resident with a 3.9/33).
b) 333 applicants from Nebraska applied last year. Applicant MCAT SD is 4.6. So about 16 people applied with a 37.2+. Probably as a rough estimate 30-35 applied with a 35+
c) There are about 3800 matriculants a year at schools with 35+ median MCATs. So about 1900 had 35+ MCAT scores. There are about 3800 applicants a year who apply with 36+ MCAT scores. 35+ and 36+ aren't a perfect match but you can perhaps ball park it as 40% of people with 35+ MCAT scores who apply end up at schools with 35+ MCAT medians.
d) That means roughly 12-14 people a yr in NE go to those big name schools out of 22 OOS matriculants. The remaining 8-10 could be a) URMs b) Ties to another state or school c) Part of a speical program(ie SMP BS/MD) d) a million other things.
e) Nebraska in general had 147 matriculants last year.
Take away: Most people who matriculate OOS are not typical applicants in NE. Either they are top applicants or have special circumstances. Maybe out of those 22 OOS apps, 5 or less were your typical applicant. 3-5/147 matriculants. That's 2-3% of them.
Overall everything about this process is stress inducing and the neuroticism gets out of hand alot. People think they need to apply everywhere because they hear the stories of people with big stats not getting anywhere. It takes away from looking at things practically and logically. That's all that is going on if someone with a 3.9/33-34 in NE decides they need to apply to 20+ lower tier schools. It's just not practical, a waste of time, money and energy. It doesn't do anything to boost your chances really and it takes away from focusing on OOS reaches meaning you basically lock yourself into going to a lower tier type.
There is no value or reason to apply to a bunch of lower tier OOS schools in a state like NE. How many people are going to turn down the in state tuition of Nebraska to fork over the extra money to go to Drexel or NYMC? If you are go ahead and apply. It's a judgment call. But few people will. Which is why only apply to OOS schools you know you would strongly consider turning down for your state school and that juicy tuition in a case like this.
There are many things that have 2% chances of occurring in life we never even consider or take for granted: being in that potential 2% who matriculate OOS as a regular/traditional applicant shouldn't be that 2% occurence you start deciding to worry about and do irrational things over.
