It depends on the school. Our state school has a 98% acceptance rate to first-choice matches for residency, which means that most graduates do residencies at Hopkins/Vanderbilt/Berkeley/Ivy type schools. Does that mean you should choose it over Harvard Med School? Not necessarily. Given the choice, I would, but that's ONLY because I'm a non-trad who would rather pay $20,000 a year and stay local (where I've established my life already) than pay 3-4 times that and move elsewhere. I'm also ready to start a family and not gunning for a "top" residency.
If my own kid had a choice between a top med school and our highly prized state school, I'd work around the clock to make sure money wasn't the deciding factor. Given your stats, it sounds like (if you score 35+ on the MCAT) you're young and the sky is your limit. My instinct was initially to scoff at your early acceptance, but I understand your concerns.
If you go to this state school (and if it's the one I think it is), you probably have a great shot at whatever residency you want, assuming your GPA and USMLE scores are top-notch. But you may be selling yourself short, if you have a 3.9 from an Ivy and already scored a 31 on a practice MCAT...and you can deal with the price tag attached to a top med school. I'm sure you'll get where you want to be, regardless of what you decide. You sound like you're bright and very motivated, and you'll succeed whether you choose to matriculate here this year, or elsewhere next year.
Good luck in whatever you decide, and congrats on your achievements!
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So, the thing about "first choice" for residencies is that it's only first among the places you were allowed to rank. If I apply to top residency programs, but am never interviewed, I am not allowed to rank any of them first. I wouldn't think Berkeley has a top residency program though. They are being held-back a bit by their non-existence 🙂
Anyway, didn't mean to jump on that comment, just wanted to clear that up.
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