The applicant pool continues to increase

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dshnay

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“The AMCAS application opened on Wednesday, June 4th for applicant submission. As of August 1st, almost two months into the 2009 entering class cycle they have 20,661 submitted applications, up 1.3% from last year on this date. Over half, 12,764, have been verified and sent to the medical schools. As of August 1st, they had 6,323 applications awaiting verification and their current processing time is 16 business days, which can significantly change week by week. The average medical school designations by applicants are currently 15. “

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This isn't surprising. I'm actually a bit shocked that it is up only 1.3%, considering 1.3% of 20,661 is only about 200.
 
That's 268 new applications.. yeah, I thought it would be in the thousands
 
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Does anyone know how many new medical school seats are available for this year? It would interesting to know if the number of spots has risen faster than the number of applicants.
 
Is a 1.3% difference considered statistically significant?
 
Well, this might mean nothing. It might just mean that people have gotten smarter about applying early. Let's not forget that with all the new computer-based MCAT dates, people have way more chances to get the MCAT done with early and to be able to apply as early as June or July. Just a couple of years ago, it was April or bust.
 
Is a 1.3% difference considered statistically significant?


It depends how many new seats are available in each entering class. If schools have about 1-2 extra seats this year, then it's not significant at all. :)
 
Is a 1.3% difference considered statistically significant?

Statisical signifcance comes from the likelehood that a difference from a sample population is the result of a difference in the true population. These AMCAS applicant numbers are not samples, so, yes.
 
Wow, is there nothing we will not over analyze.

Dshnay, where did you get those numbers anyways? Do they just post it on their site?
 
Wow, is there nothing we will not over analyze.

Dshnay, where did you get those numbers anyways? Do they just post it on their site?

i received a mass email from my premed advisor.
 
i received a mass email from my premed advisor.

The first rule of being a premed is understanding that premed advisors know nothing about anything. They are good at forwarding random stuff to you to try and dissuade you from applying and thus giving them more work.
 
The first rule of being a premed is understanding that premed advisors know nothing about anything. They are good at forwarding random stuff to you to try and dissuade you from applying and thus giving them more work.

:laugh::laugh: Is that true? can someone start a poll on 'my opinion of how much my pre-med advisor knows' or something? We should start a database on which schools, if any, have good pre-med advisors. That would be a service to the premed world ...
 
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Statisical signifcance comes from the likelehood that a difference from a sample population is the result of a difference in the true population. These AMCAS applicant numbers are not samples, so, yes.

Well, unless of course we're using the applicant numbers through the first of August as a measure for the total number in the applicant pool this year, in which case statistical significance is debatable. However, any application of statistical tools relies upon the sample population being randomly selected from the pool of all current and future applicants this season, which is of course unlikely to be the case.

On another note, I agree with the above posters on taking anything not on the AAMC website itself with a grain of salt.

OK, enough being extremely geeky. I have to go have a life, and, uh, fill out more secondaries.
 
:laugh::laugh: Is that true? can someone start a poll on 'my opinion of how much my pre-med advisor knows' or something? We should start a database on which schools, if any, have good pre-med advisors. That would be a service to the premed world ...


The pre-med adviser from my undergrad is supposed to be "the best pre-med adviser in the country", as in, she's the one who's written all the articles and books and stuff on post-bac programs and admissions-related things (I think I saw her name in my kaplan book/msar, she's just one of those people). Nevertheless, she was totally incorrect in giving me advice about what would count as BCPM and what wouldn't. Which messed my gpa up like whoa. So...yeah. Otherwise she's been really useful.
 
Well, unless of course we're using the applicant numbers through the first of August as a measure for the total number in the applicant pool this year, in which case statistical significance is debatable. However, any application of statistical tools relies upon the sample population being randomly selected from the pool of all current and future applicants this season, which is of course unlikely to be the case.

On another note, I agree with the above posters on taking anything not on the AAMC website itself with a grain of salt.

OK, enough being extremely geeky. I have to go have a life, and, uh, fill out more secondaries.

:laugh::) Of course. I assumed you at least we're not making that mis assumption! Cant comit to no more extreme geekiness, dont have any secondaries yet, but I support you in your efforts ...

Edit: Wow, i checked out your mdapps profile. I dont think you have a chance at fufilling your promise. Are you for real? Props, i expect you to cure cancer for us someday.
 
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Wow! You guys are awsome. Going to have to take some time answering though ...
 
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I suspect that this small increase may be due to slightly more applicants adhering to the "apply early" recommendation and, as mentioned, the numerous MCAT dates makes it easier for applicants to do so.

Nothing is certain until the AMCAS application deadline arrives & then we'll know the true size of this year's pool.
 
:laugh::) Of course. I assumed you at least we're not making that mis assumption! Cant comit to no more extreme geekiness, dont have any secondaries yet, but I support you in your efforts ...

Edit: Wow, i checked out your mdapps profile. I dont think you have a chance at fufilling your promise. Are you for real? Props, i expect you to cure cancer for us someday.

Sure hope I'm real. It'd be an awful shame if it turned out I'd been living an elaborate lie all this time.

But what LizzyM said. Adcom members know a lot more than us lowly premeds :laugh:
 
I suspect that this small increase may be due to slightly more applicants adhering to the "apply early" recommendation and, as mentioned, the numerous MCAT dates makes it easier for applicants to do so.

Nothing is certain until the AMCAS application deadline arrives & then we'll know the true size of this year's pool.

Well, this might mean nothing. It might just mean that people have gotten smarter about applying early. Let's not forget that with all the new computer-based MCAT dates, people have way more chances to get the MCAT done with early and to be able to apply as early as June or July. Just a couple of years ago, it was April or bust.

Is it sad that I'm really proud of myself for having made the same argument as LizzyM?
 
Is it sad that I'm really proud of myself for having made the same argument as LizzyM?

No, just for copying that argument and posting to commemorate it :D.

In my experience, it can happen without agreement with adcoms on more important matters ...:(
 
“The AMCAS application opened on Wednesday, June 4th for applicant submission. As of August 1st, almost two months into the 2009 entering class cycle they have 20,661 submitted applications, up 1.3% from last year on this date. Over half, 12,764, have been verified and sent to the medical schools. As of August 1st, they had 6,323 applications awaiting verification and their current processing time is 16 business days, which can significantly change week by week. The average medical school designations by applicants are currently 15. “

Who wants to still make the argument that August is not late?
 
Who wants to still make the argument that August is not late?

ha. the pre allo forum is so amusing. Just last week there was a thread with people trying to argue that submitting SECONDARIES in august was considered late.

i'm glad to see someone has their head on straight
 
Who wants to still make the argument that August is not late?
It's not late, but why not submit ASAP? I honestly see no excuse for not submitting the first day possible. If you do your research, you would know there's absolutely nothing holding you back.
 
It's not late, but why not submit ASAP? I honestly see no excuse for not submitting the first day possible. If you do your research, you would know there's absolutely nothing holding you back.
$$$ could be a factor, so could an MCAT retake. A vacation could affect your submission too. Enjoying your summer might do it to.
 
$$$ could be a factor, so could an MCAT retake. A vacation could affect your submission too. Enjoying your summer might do it to.

taking a class, trying to get some more volunteer hours to go on the app, going to a friends' wedding, earning rent ...
 
Yep, I will. That's 40% of the applicants. I'm still in the "August is average" camp.

I am not arguing that August is NOT average - it just isn't early, and if it is not early, it is not good...

To be successful in this game, you don't want to be average in any respect. Your goal is to be ABOVE average, and while there may not be much an applicant can do about GPA and MCAT at this point, submitting the primary and secondaries as they become available is something the applicant controls to a major extent...
 
$$$ could be a factor, so could an MCAT retake. A vacation could affect your submission too. Enjoying your summer might do it to.

Or transcripts could be holding you up.....:mad:

That's two years running for me that I wasn't able to submit day one because of mitigating factors. For some people it's just not feasible.
 
or a research letter of rec ...for a position you are currently holding. some things are more important to wait for than to just rush and do things half baked.
 
I am not arguing that August is NOT average - it just isn't early, and if it is not early, it is not good...

To be successful in this game, you don't want to be average in any respect. Your goal is to be ABOVE average, and while there may not be much an applicant can do about GPA and MCAT at this point, submitting the primary and secondaries as they become available is something the applicant controls to a major extent...

This notion seems a bit over the top. I submitted my stuff early and still haven't received secondaries to all of the schools I applied to. The sky will not fall if you submit your AMCAS in August. So Adcoms won't let you ride your white horse to the interview if you didn't get your secondaries in until early September, it's a long process. Submitting in August and late July is normal. Submitting in June (myself included) is anal, a good practice, but anal.
 
Who wants to still make the argument that August is not late?

I do. The popular wisdom on SDN is that if you aren't at least verified by early August, you're never getting into med school and you might as well get a job at McDonald's. But if you look at the numbers in that press release, only 20,000 or so applications were in (of which 12,000 or so were verified) as of 8/1. There are about 42,000 apps per year total, so less than half of them are in as of 8/1, and only 29% are verified. That means that 71% of apps are "late," according to SDN standards. That's a pretty strict definition of "late." I tend to look at it a little differently, saying that the first 29% are "early" (not merely "on time,") the next third are "average," and that last third is "late"--which I would agree is not a great position to be in.

I'm sure that applying early is a good thing, but it can't be everything. Otherwise, why wouldn't the AMCAS deadline be a lot earlier than it is?
 
I do. The popular wisdom on SDN is that if you aren't at least verified by early August, you're never getting into med school and you might as well get a job at McDonald's. But if you look at the numbers in that press release, only 20,000 or so applications were in (of which 12,000 or so were verified) as of 8/1. There are about 42,000 apps per year total, so less than half of them are in as of 8/1, and only 29% are verified. That means that 71% of apps are "late," according to SDN standards. That's a pretty strict definition of "late." I tend to look at it a little differently, saying that the first 29% are "early" (not merely "on time,") the next third are "average," and that last third is "late"--which I would agree is not a great position to be in.

I'm sure that applying early is a good thing, but it can't be everything. Otherwise, why wouldn't the AMCAS deadline be a lot earlier than it is?

Interviews are doled out on a "first come, first served" basis. Even being a tad late can dramatically reduce your chances at an interview, hence dramatically reducing our chances at acceptance. Pritzker openly admits this is the case - early cycle applicants get interview invites at more than 10 times the rate of "late" applicants - the later your app, the fewer remaining invite slots, thus the more competitive the already extremely competitive process becomes...

Believe what you want about this, and argue about the semantics of "late vs early," but there is "early" and then there is "not early" and it is pretty clear which one of those you want to be...

Also - although only 29 percent are verified as of 8/1, if you do not submit your primary until August, you can be assured that your app will not be complete until the 50th percentile at best, and likely even worse than that...I call that "late" - you want to call it "average" - have it your way, but being "average" sucks in this competitive process...
 
It should be pretty obvious to everyone at this point that flip is the local med school application alarmist, but I thought I should just make it clear that you don't have to submit your application on June 1 to be competitive. You also don't have to completely avoid C's and score above a 35 to be competitive. Similarly, you don't need to get into WashU to be a good doctor. You will be just fine if you submit your application in August as long as you turn your secondaries around promptly.
 
It should be pretty obvious to everyone at this point that flip is the local med school application alarmist, but I thought I should just make it clear that you don't have to submit your application on June 1 to be competitive. You also don't have to completely avoid C's and score above a 35 to be competitive. Similarly, you don't need to get into WashU to be a good doctor. You will be just fine if you submit your application in August as long as you turn your secondaries around promptly.

Define "fine."

So the "truth" probably lies somewhere between my "alarmist" raves and your pollyannaish "August is fine," right?
 
Interviews are doled out on a "first come, first served" basis. Even being a tad late can dramatically reduce your chances at an interview, hence dramatically reducing our chances at acceptance. Pritzker openly admits this is the case - early cycle applicants get interview invites at more than 10 times the rate of "late" applicants - the later your app, the fewer remaining invite slots, thus the more competitive the already extremely competitive process becomes...

I'm sure you're right about Pritzker, and I'm sure everyone who's interested in that school is aware of it. (I'm not applying there myself.) But are you suggesting that they're typical of ALL med schools? Remember, Pritzker is the same school that cut their class size from 112 seats to 88 IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR'S APP CYCLE, without giving applicants any prior notice. If all other med schools run admissions like that, we're screwed from the get-go anyway.
 
While SDN is a bit doom and gloom when it comes to applications and med school in general, I think that there's a lot of truth to it. Obviously you can apply the day before the deadline, you may even get in applying that late, but there's no question that it hurts your chances. Simply put, the earlier you apply the fewer people you're competing against and the greater chance you have of an acceptance. That's not to say that you're screwed if you apply in August or September, but your chances are less than if you applied in July. Sometimes we can't do anything about it (for example I just got my last rec letter yesterday after asking over 3 months ago) but that's why you're supposed to get all your ducks in a row during the school year rather than during the app cycle.
 
I'm sure you're right about Pritzker, and I'm sure everyone who's interested in that school is aware of it. (I'm not applying there myself.) But are you suggesting that they're typical of ALL med schools? Remember, Pritzker is the same school that cut their class size from 112 seats to 88 IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR'S APP CYCLE, without giving applicants any prior notice. If all other med schools run admissions like that, we're screwed from the get-go anyway.

Yes.

All rolling admissions schools who start passing out interview slots ASAP undoubtedly go through a similar pattern - it is easier for an applicant to get an interview invite "early" in the cycle than "late." It is a mathematical reality.
 
Yes.

All rolling admissions schools who start passing out interview slots ASAP undoubtedly go through a similar pattern - it is easier for an applicant to get an interview invite "early" in the cycle than "late." It is a mathematical reality.

Of course your chances of an interview are higher if you apply early. But my point is that the gradient at most schools is probably not as extreme as the 10x quoted for Pritzker and other super-elite institutions.
 
Of course your chances of an interview are higher if you apply early. But my point is that the gradient at most schools is probably not as extreme as the 10x quoted for Pritzker and other super-elite institutions.

If you had the data, you could probably figure it out - for instance, if you knew how many interview slots "School X" had to offer, and when they started offering those, and when those filled up, etc.

Smarter and easier to apply "early" to give yourself your best chance.
 
anyone know the final number of applicants for the 2008 cycle?
 
Smarter and easier to apply "early" to give yourself your best chance.

I applied a couple of weeks ago. But I don't think it's fair or reasonable to scare the **** out of people who might not have submitted yet, because they still may have a chance. I'm not saying that they shouldn't hurry up, but it's not as if life ends on June 15th.

Your app is in, so you're fine by your own standards. Relax and let the rest of the world sort itself out.
 
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