The "Fauci Effect" and its impact on applicants (not applications)

[southernhope1]

Lots of folks have been speculating that the increase in *applications* is due to Zoom interviews and the time to put in more applications. But this new article also notes that *applicants* are up 18 percent(!!!) this year over last year. (a normal rise is 3%) Med Schools Are Seeing A Surge Of Applications. It's Called The 'Fauci Effect'

So it's not your imagination....this is a tough year beyond all others.

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[Rachapkis]

The perfect storm: being a doctor is a secure profession in precarious economic times--check; doctors are featuring in starring roles in the most prominent issue currently facing us--check; people on the fence have time to deal with the onerous application process and less travel is required to gain admission--check. That said, I would not be surprised that those who were most prepared and likely to gain admission would have applied even if the pandemic had not occurred.

 

[Lucca]

Interestingly, many are speculating that those on the other side of the pipeline currently practicing will be either retiring earlier than planned or leaving medicine altogether due to burnout, lack of support, mental health, and/or financial pressure from lost income (many if not most docs dont work in hospitals and any practice that is not associated with a big hospital system and relies on outpatient, elective care has faced very financially challenging times).

Doctors Are Calling It Quits Under Stress of the Pandemic (Published 2020)

Thousands of medical practices are closing, as doctors and nurses decide to retire early or shift to less intense jobs.

www.nytimes.com

Covid-19: Doctors may quit without proper post-pandemic support, defence body warns

The government must create a national plan to provide doctors with the mental wellbeing support they will need following the covid-19 pandemic, the Medical Protection Society (MPS) has said. Without support and time to recuperate, many doctors may leave the profession or suffer in silence with...

www.bmj.com

and then there's this:



at the same time, @Rachapkis is right. Economically, going to professional school is very attractive right now and medicine has a lot of visibility. It's also not a great time to do gap years because most gap year plans were completely derailed by the pandemic, so I can see many who were planning on applying later "speeding up" the process. This year has been horrible for everyone, but certainly not a good time to be a pre-med either.

 

[HopeP]

So class of 2025 would be
~21K + unusual high deferral of 2024
or
~21K - unusual high deferral of 2024.
How this may impact class of 2026, 27 as 60% of applicants don't get in, suspect that number would be ~66% as 18% more applicants this year.

 

[Goro]

Lots of folks have been speculating that the increase in *applications* is due to Zoom interviews and the time to put in more applications. But this new article also notes that *applicants* are up 18 percent(!!!) this year over last year. (a normal rise is 3%) Med Schools Are Seeing A Surge Of Applications. It's Called The 'Fauci Effect'

So it's not your imagination....this is a tough year beyond all others.

Has nothing to do with Dr Fauci. Apps go up when the economy tanks.

 

[Lucca]

Has nothing to do with Dr Fauci. Apps go up when the economy tanks.

I'm not sure seeing Fauci work 20 hour days / 7 days a week to be ignored by half the country and even have some call for his beheading is necessarily inspiring the next generation of physician-scientist-public servants

 

[HopeP]

I'm not sure seeing Fauci work 20 hour days / 7 days a week to be ignored by half the country and even have some call for his beheading is necessarily inspiring the next generation of physician-scientist-public servants

I see it differently, zoomer generation is unlike boomer and believes in activism irrespective of profession they choose as carrier.

 

[Blueprint Med School]

Lots of folks have been speculating that the increase in *applications* is due to Zoom interviews and the time to put in more applications. But this new article also notes that *applicants* are up 18 percent(!!!) this year over last year. (a normal rise is 3%) Med Schools Are Seeing A Surge Of Applications. It's Called The 'Fauci Effect'

So it's not your imagination....this is a tough year beyond all others.

Medicine tends to be relatively recession-proof and apps bump during economic down times. Not to mention doctors are rock starts right now. If you look at the numbers post dotcom bubble, it never came back down.

David D, MD - USMLE and MCAT Tutor
Med School Tutors

 

[HopeP]

Has nothing to do with Dr Fauci. Apps go up when the economy tanks.

Also wonder what kind of spike was there, dozen years back great recession time.

 

[LizzyM]

MBA applications are up, too. It is the economy. When jobs are harder to find, people will apply for higher ed. People who would have worked for consulting firms for a year or two, people who had taken the MCAT and all the pre-reqs but who would have done something interesting for a year or two (including Peace Corps) are choosing to go straight to AMCAS.

 

[la flame]

Medicine tends to be relatively recession-proof and apps bump during economic down times. Not to mention doctors are rock starts right now. If you look at the numbers post dotcom bubble, it never came back down.

David D, MD - USMLE and MCAT Tutor
Med School Tutors

I wonder if Nursing schools have gotten an increase in numbers as well. It's way easier to apply to these schools and nurses were also seen as all-stars this pandemic. This goes for RT programs as well.

 

[southernhope1]

Several folks asked whether there have been similar spikes in applicant numbers during past economic bad times. Here's the annual number of applicants, as tracked by the AAMC:

Total Applicants
2011 - 43,919
2012 -- 45,266
2013- 48,014
2014 - 49,480
2015 - 52,549
2016 - 53,042
2017 - 51,680
2018- 52,777
2019 - 53,370
So it goes up and down....the AAMC actually says that it's flat, overall.
Then you get to this year...I haven't seen final numbers yet but Medscape reported yesterday: "Medical school applicants for next year's enrollment cycle are up 17% from this time last year, according to an analysis by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).For comparison, last year applicants had increased only 1.1% from the year before."

*Applications* are up much more, of course, but I tend to weigh applicants as a more important barometer.

 

[HopeP]

Several folks asked whether there have been similar spikes in applicant numbers during past economic bad times. Here's the annual number of applicants, as tracked by the AAMC:

Total Applicants
2011 - 43,919
2012 -- 45,266
2013- 48,014
2014 - 49,480
2015 - 52,549
2016 - 53,042
2017 - 51,680
2018- 52,777
2019 - 53,370
So it goes up and down....the AAMC actually says that it's flat, overall.
Then you get to this year...I haven't seen final numbers yet but Medscape reported yesterday: "Medical school applicants for next year's enrollment cycle are up 17% from this time last year, according to an analysis by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).For comparison, last year applicants had increased only 1.1% from the year before."

*Applications* are up much more, of course, but I tend to weigh applicants as a more important barometer.

By looking these numbers it is hard to believe that economy is sole culprit here. In just 10 years it spiked ~25% and last 5 years it is static in ~52-53K range.

More meaningful chart since 1980 https://www.aamc.org/media/9581/download. According to that after Y2K bubble, 2000-2002 cycles, applicants are actually dip, contradicting economy slump theory.

 

[southernhope1]

More meaningful chart since 1980 https://www.aamc.org/media/9581/download. According to that after Y2K bubble, 2000-2002 cycles, applicants are actually dip, contradicting economy slump theory.

If i'm reading this correctly, 2002 would have been the golden year to apply in this century.

 

[LizzyM]

By looking these numbers it is hard to believe that economy is sole culprit here. In just 10 years it spiked ~25% and last 5 years it is static in ~52-53K range.

More meaningful chart since 1980 https://www.aamc.org/media/9581/download. According to that after Y2K bubble, 2000-2002 cycles, applicants are actually dip, contradicting economy slump theory.

The 2001-2002 application cycle was underway at the time of 9/11 which is when things began to slump economically. However, that year was also the first year that AMCAS was electronic and it was a nightmare. If some people decided to sit that one out as they heard of the troubles that early applicants were experiencing, I wouldn't be at all surprised. That is really an inflection point between a steady decline in applicants and a subsequent rise. I wonder how much of that decline can be attributed to the uncertainty that the Clinton healthcare plan engendered (1993-onward).

 

[deomnibusdubitandum]

Applying for medical school isn't an impromptu decision. Given that the pandemic didn't start until earlier this year, I suspect that there would have been a high number of applicants regardless.

 

[HopeP]

The 2001-2002 application cycle was underway at the time of 9/11 which is when things began to slump economically. However, that year was also the first year that AMCAS was electronic and it was a nightmare. If some people decided to sit that one out as they heard of the troubles that early applicants were experiencing, I wouldn't be at all surprised. That is really an inflection point between a steady decline in applicants and a subsequent rise. I wonder how much of that decline can be attributed to the uncertainty that the Clinton healthcare plan engendered (1993-onward).

Conquer with the environment back 2001 cycle. At the same time, assuming AMCAS still allowed old whatever process to apply, also people are slow to adopt changes of that mass especially internet was infancy for this kind of use, would have still followed old process instead of sitting out. Irrespective it is hard to prove that economy is sole/primary culprit for rising number of applicants in last 2 economic slumps (Y2k and Housing/Wall St). Rather it seems economy slump is just a tailwind force to an existing underlying factors.

 

[Goro]

Several folks asked whether there have been similar spikes in applicant numbers during past economic bad times. Here's the annual number of applicants, as tracked by the AAMC:

Total Applicants
2011 - 43,919
2012 -- 45,266
2013- 48,014
2014 - 49,480
2015 - 52,549
2016 - 53,042
2017 - 51,680
2018- 52,777
2019 - 53,370
So it goes up and down....the AAMC actually says that it's flat, overall.
Then you get to this year...I haven't seen final numbers yet but Medscape reported yesterday: "Medical school applicants for next year's enrollment cycle are up 17% from this time last year, according to an analysis by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).For comparison, last year applicants had increased only 1.1% from the year before."

*Applications* are up much more, of course, but I tend to weigh applicants as a more important barometer.

You need to look at the years 2001-2003 (the tech bubble) and 2008-2011 (the Great recession. Your data set isn't including the worst economic years of this century.

The decline seen in after 2016 was due to a demographic decline in the numbers if post-Millennials. Simply fewer people in that age group.

At my school we're up 20% over last year and we might very well start rationing seats by early Jan...that's the earliest it's ever happened!

 

[r2med]

So people who are not pre-meds just suddenly got passionate this year and applied? How is that even possible to complete pre-reqs etc? We as premeds work all life long to complete pre-reqs and gather competitiveness and here comes a set inspired by Fauci and by economic downturn - easily applying? I think that is impossible. MBA apps - sure - there is probably much lss pre-reqs, but MD apps - is it possible?

 

[np2002]

Idk ya'll. Me, my friends, and every single Gen Z I know don't give a **** about the economy, or even understand it. As someone above mentioned, we care a lot more about activism and making the world a place that we want to grow up in, esp after boomers completely turned this country upside down into a capitalist hell, and made it unlivable for most people.

I know a TON of people now going into immigrant law, environmental law, joining the ACLU, etc and I would bet those numbers have raised significantly over the last year. I personally want to go into medicine because it's so blatantly clear to the world that we have horrific gaps in access to quality healthcare across racial/ethnic/SES groups. Social media/the internet is making younger generations hyperaware towards the inequalities and disparities in our country and I think many of us want to be a part of the change.

I'm sure some people care about choosing a career that is stable through a ****ty economy. I just personally don't know a single person my age who thinks that way when choosing a career path lol

Editing to say: If you were to ask me what I would consider a stable career path through a bad economy, I would prob say social media influencer 🤢

 

[Goro]

Idk ya'll. Me, my friends, and every single Gen Z I know don't give a **** about the economy, or even understand it. As someone above mentioned, we care a lot more about activism and making the world a place that we want to grow up in, esp after boomers completely turned this country upside down into a capitalist hell, and made it unlivable for most people.

I know a TON of people now going into immigrant law, environmental law, etc and I would bet those numbers have raised significantly as well. I personally want to go into medicine because it's so blatantly clear to the world that we have horrific gaps in access to quality healthcare across racial/ethnic/SES groups. Social media/the internet is making younger generations hyperaware towards the inequalities and disparities in our country and I think many of us want to be a part of the change.

I mean maybe SOME people care about choosing a career that is stable through a ****ty economy??? I just personally don't know a single person my age who thinks that way when choosing a career path lol

Always best to avoid the sin of solipsism.

So people who are not pre-meds just suddenly got passionate this year and applied? How is that even possible to complete pre-reqs etc? We as premeds work all life long to complete pre-reqs and gather competitiveness and here comes a set inspired by Fauci and by economic downturn - easily applying? I think that is impossible. MBA apps - sure - there is probably much lss pre-reqs, but MD apps - is it possible?

Passionate? Maybe.

Desperate? More probably

 

[battie]

I wonder if Nursing schools have gotten an increase in numbers as well. It's way easier to apply to these schools and nurses were also seen as all-stars this pandemic. This goes for RT programs as well.

Veterinary medicine applications are up 20% as well this application cycle.

 

[r2med]

Always best to avoid the sin of solipsism.


Passionate? Maybe.

Desperate? More probably

But how do they complete all prereqs, volunteering, shadowing, mcat etc in just three months after covid hit?

 

[Goro]

But how do they complete all prereqs, volunteering, shadowing, mcat etc in just three months after covid hit?

Who say's they've done that? Increase in apps doesn't mean that all the requisite parts of the app are in place.

 

[HopeP]

Who say's they've done that? Increase in apps doesn't mean that all the requisite parts of the app are in place.

It is highly likely that people who had planned for gap year were pushed over the cliff due to shutdown of EC activities, had applied anyway. Downside of that is more re-applicants will be in coming years. Wonder, how many cycles it may take to flush out this spike or this -61K applicants is the next step going forward.

 

[Goro]

It is highly likely that people who had planned for gap year were pushed over the cliff due to shutdown of EC activities, had applied anyway. Downside of that is more re-applicants will be in coming years. Wonder, how many cycles it may take to flush out this spike or this -61K applicants is next step going forward.

Seems reasonable!

 

[HopeP]

You need to look at the years 2001-2003 (the tech bubble) and 2008-2011 (the Great recession. Your data set isn't including the worst economic years of this century.

The decline seen in after 2016 was due to a demographic decline in the numbers if post-Millennials. Simply fewer people in that age group.

At my school we're up 20% over last year and we might very well start rationing seats by early Jan...that's the earliest it's ever happened!

2001-2003, tech bubble, total number of applicants went down.

2008-2011, great recession, very marginal impact if any, pretty much static,

Has nothing to do with Dr Fauci. Apps go up when the economy tanks.

Agree with first part, that it mayn't have to do anything with Dr Fauci, 2nd part, economy, numbers are not in agreement.

This makes me thinking that underlying factors those have been affecting admissions for such a long time are finally breaking out and may go out of control and 2-3 gap years would be a new rock star.

 

[Osteosaur]

Applications shot up in 2010 during the recession too. When post-graduate job prospects are poor professional and grad school applications shoot up.

I hope to God no one is trying to emulate faucii lmao.

 

[HopeP]

Applications shot up in 2010 during the recession too. When post-graduate job prospects are poor professional and grad school applications shoot up.

I hope to God no one is trying to emulate faucii lmao.

2010 Med school applicants numbers seems in disagreement, in a grand schema of 40K+ applicants, a +/- 2% is insignificant, but 17% spike this year is certainly far more significant and past economic slumps are in disagreement with curent spike attributed to economy.

 

[Goro]

2010 Med school applicants numbers seems in disagreement, in a grand schema of 40K+ applicants, a +/- 2% is insignificant, but 17% spike this year is certainly far more significant and past economic slumps are in disagreement with curent spike attributed to economy.

Maybe it's a phenomenon more pronounced at DO schools, because this is what we've seen

 

[HopeP]

Maybe it's a phenomenon more pronounced at DO schools, because this is what we've seen

May be DO schools applications goes up (that is true for MD as well, as more and more applicants apply to more and more schools), not necessarily mean applicants are going up due to economy.
The article states "The number of medical school applicants is up 18 percent this year over last year, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges, or AAMC". It doesn't differentiate MD vs DO applicants. I don't have numbers to back up the claim, but I suspect DO only applicants are far less than MD only applicants for a typical year, most are applying to both (but that only counts as single applicant). If DO schools are seeing more applications than previous years, I think because more and more applicants apply to more and more schools, but economy is a non-factor.

 

[Mad Jack]

Lots of folks have been speculating that the increase in *applications* is due to Zoom interviews and the time to put in more applications. But this new article also notes that *applicants* are up 18 percent(!!!) this year over last year. (a normal rise is 3%) Med Schools Are Seeing A Surge Of Applications. It's Called The 'Fauci Effect'

So it's not your imagination....this is a tough year beyond all others.

Applications always go up in uncertain economic times

 

[HopeP]

Applications always go up in uncertain economic times

In uncertain economic times, it may go up with applications, disagree with applicants as data proves otherwise. This year 18% spike in applicants is certainly alarming. Who knows how much spike in applications that would cause. Few schools are already reporting 50% spike.

 

[deleted555445]

i wonder, of these 18% extra applicants, how many applied to schools that are "MCAT blind" or were considering going MCAT blind this year? there may be a sizeable group of people who never took the MCAT who normally would have waited until they had a good score to apply who decided to shoot their shot at the small subset of schools that didn't require the MCAT. Stanford, specifically mentioned as increasing by 50%, is one of those schools. the UC's early on indicated they might go that way, but as far as i know they only were MCAT optional for II's?

i wouldn't be surprised if applications didn't increase as much as applicants because some people thought they'd take advantage of the situation and only applied to the few schools that were offering this option.

 

[HopeP]

i wonder, of these 18% extra applicants, how many applied to schools that are "MCAT blind" or were considering going MCAT blind this year? there may be a sizeable group of people who never took the MCAT who normally would have waited until they had a good score to apply who decided to shoot their shot at the small subset of schools that didn't require the MCAT. Stanford, specifically mentioned as increasing by 50%, is one of those schools. the UC's early on indicated they might go that way, but as far as i know they only were MCAT optional for II's?

i wouldn't be surprised if applications didn't increase as much as applicants because some people thought they'd take advantage of the situation and only applied to the few schools that were offering this option.

'MCAT Blind' schools would certainly see increase in applications, resulted in disproportionately increase (50% for Stanford) to applicants increase (18%), in a loose term one can say 32% is attributed to 'MCAT Blind' factor. Still it doesn't justify 18% spike in all applicants due to economy. Wonder why one would shoot the shot at school like Stanford caliber, it is hard to fathom that 18% suddenly believes they are capable to apply at Stanford and only missing part is MCAT. Non-UC adcoms also claim similar phenomenon for their respective MD and DO schools which are 'not MCAT blind'. Mystery remains, what are primary factors for 18% spike in applicants?

 

[KnightDoc]

i wonder, of these 18% extra applicants, how many applied to schools that are "MCAT blind" or were considering going MCAT blind this year? there may be a sizeable group of people who never took the MCAT who normally would have waited until they had a good score to apply who decided to shoot their shot at the small subset of schools that didn't require the MCAT. Stanford, specifically mentioned as increasing by 50%, is one of those schools. the UC's early on indicated they might go that way, but as far as i know they only were MCAT optional for II's?

i wouldn't be surprised if applications didn't increase as much as applicants because some people thought they'd take advantage of the situation and only applied to the few schools that were offering this option.

Actually, ALL of the reports so far are that applications increased far more than applicants. You neglected to take into account the fact that virtual interviews encouraged people to apply to more schools than usual, since it costs little in time and no money to attend interviews. In fact, several schools (i.e. Vanderbilt) have clued into this and are extending their cycle to issue more IIs in anticipation of the likelihood that yields will drop across the board as top tier candidates are attending more interviews, including interviews they would have turned down in years past due to the cost and inconvenience of attending after receiving a few As.

 

[r2med]

Increase in number of applications per applicant is understandable.

 

[Startingover123]

Increase in number of applications per applicant is understandable.

So what is up 20% applicants or applications? Virtual interviews accounts completely for applications.

 

[KnightDoc]

So what is up 20% applicants or applications? Virtual interviews accounts completely for applications.

Reports are that applicants are up 18%; applications are up more (25%+).

 

[r2med]

So what is up 20% applicants or applications? Virtual interviews accounts completely for applications.

18% is number of applicants, which is what is not understandable

 

[LizzyM]

I do believe that in good economic times, some people choose to take a gap year job rather than apply despite having everything needed to make the application. When there is no job on the horizon, it may seem better to make the application straight away.

Again, keep in mind that the 2001-2002 cycle was beset with problems related to being an online application for the first time. It would not surprise me if some people baled based on the glitchiness of the application portal. We also had the shutdown of air traffic, including no overnight shipping/mail which discouraged some people from submitting applications/having transcripts sent, etc.

 

[KnightDoc]

18% is number of applicants, which is what is not understandable

But it IS understandable. The same thing is happening with law and business school. Opportunities are scarce for recent graduates, so they look to professional schools.

The gotcha, as you pointed out in a prior post, is that a successful application takes years to build. That doesn't mean people aren't free to try. The successful few will be the ones, as @LizzyM suggested, who could have been successful in any circumstance but would have pushed back for a year if a gap year opportunity hadn't vaporized, or people who would have taken a second gap year if that was an option, or non-trads who recently lost a job and are otherwise good to go. The rest of them will learn the hard way that a successful application requires a lot more than a 3.7 GPA and a 511.5 MCAT, 10 hours of virtual shadowing and a few dozen hours at a food bank or suicide hotline.

 

[Startingover123]

But it IS understandable. The same thing is happening with law and business school. Opportunities are scarce for recent graduates, so they look to professional schools.

The gotcha, as you pointed out in a prior post, is that a successful application takes years to build. That doesn't mean people aren't free to try. The successful few will be the ones, as @LizzyM suggested, who could have been successful in any circumstance but would have pushed back for a year if a gap year opportunity hadn't vaporized, or people who would have taken a second gap year if that was an option, or non-trads who recently lost a job and are otherwise good to go. The rest of them will learn the hard way that a successful application requires a lot more than a 3.7 GPA and a 511.5 MCAT, 10 hours of virtual shadowing and a few dozen hours at a food bank or suicide hotline.

Ya that’s a good point. Do you think next cycle is back to normal?

 

[KnightDoc]

Ya that’s a good point. Do you think next cycle is back to normal?

Great question!! Remember, I'm just a premed, so please don't take anything I say as gospel. I pushed my own cycle back from this year to next because I was worried about my relative lack of ECs due to the shutdown last spring, as well as the interruption to my MCAT and resulting interference in completing apps last summer, and that was without taking into account the crazy increase in applicants this cycle.

No, I think it will take a few years to get back to "normal" because a lot of people are going to fail this year and be reapplicants next year. (By definition -- an 18% increase in applicants this year will mean applicants go from 53,000 to 62,500, and the number of unsuccessful applicants will go from 31,000 to around 40,500, or 65%.) Ultimately they will fall away as the economy gets back to normal and they realize med school isn't in the cards for them, but next year will be too soon for that since vaccines will still be being administered next spring.

They shouldn't be strong competition for good first time applicants, since they will have whatever stigma comes from being a reapplicant, and won't be any better next year with most things still shut down. I do, however, think EC expectations will be lower for the next few years, since a larger and larger portion of the pool just won't have had the opportunities to collect hours that everyone had before last March, and after probably next spring. At least I'm counting on this, since it was one of the primary reasons I didn't apply this cycle! JMHO. This will, however, help some reapplicants just like it will first time applicants.

 

[HopeP]

I do believe that in good economic times, some people choose to take a gap year job rather than apply despite having everything needed to make the application. When there is no job on the horizon, it may seem better to make the application straight away.

Again, keep in mind that the 2001-2002 cycle was beset with problems related to being an online application for the first time. It would not surprise me if some people baled based on the glitchiness of the application portal. We also had the shutdown of air traffic, including no overnight shipping/mail which discouraged some people from submitting applications/having transcripts sent, etc.

Agree with the theory in principal, but the numbers in 2 economic downturns doesn't support that at least for medical schools.
2001-2002 circumstances certainly caused reduction in applicants. so one can discard that cycle as anomaly. However 2002-2003 cycle saw further reduction in applicants (`1200).
Just created a delta between 2 consecutive years to understand the economy impact and that also not in agreement.

It clearly shows rising trend before internet bubble, during internet bubble it went -ve (discard 2001-02 for circumstances that @LizzyM had described), contradicts popular theory.
Same thing before housing crisis, more applicants in pre-crisis years, during crisis years it went flat (should expect more applicants as suggested by popular theory). Last column for this year is a lone ranger in last 30 years, 18% spike is nowhere comparable in last 30 years. It is hard to justify that based on economy. I hope ~61K applicants is not a new normal for next 5 years, just like how ~52K was a normal in last 5 years.

I predict current cycle applications will top 1M first time ever in US history.

 

[r2med]

But it IS understandable. The same thing is happening with law and business school. Opportunities are scarce for recent graduates, so they look to professional schools.

The gotcha, as you pointed out in a prior post, is that a successful application takes years to build. That doesn't mean people aren't free to try. The successful few will be the ones, as @LizzyM suggested, who could have been successful in any circumstance but would have pushed back for a year if a gap year opportunity hadn't vaporized, or people who would have taken a second gap year if that was an option, or non-trads who recently lost a job and are otherwise good to go. The rest of them will learn the hard way that a successful application requires a lot more than a 3.7 GPA and a 511.5 MCAT, 10 hours of virtual shadowing and a few dozen hours at a food bank or suicide hotline.

So we think there are ~10k "stupid" applicants that don't know there are pre-reqs? How did this go past the aamc verification?

Re: gap year, let's understand from the sdn population how many were originally planning to apply next year but applied early.

 

[KnightDoc]

So we think there are ~10k "stupid" applicants that don't know there are pre-reqs? How did this go past the aamc verification?

Re: gap year, let's understand from the sdn population how many were originally planning to apply next year but applied early.

No, I think there are several thousand people who rushed a last minute app due to COVID who don't have all the other things successful applicants have (research, shadowing, clinical and non-clinical experiences in sufficient hours, over a sufficient period of time, to be successful).

For the record, AAMC verification only verifies that what you say you have on your primary actually maps to official transcripts (courses and grades). Prereqs aren't verified until matriculation, since you can complete them right up until that time. MANY people complete at least some prereqs while applying.

I think it is EXTREMELY unlikely that 4,000 highly competitive applicants (40% of 10,000) suddenly materialized out of nowhere due to COVID to displace 4,000 other applicants who have been planning this cycle for years. JMHO, but I'm pretty sure I'm right.

Think about it -- whose gap year plans were disrupted? Seniors, that's who. They were applying anyway, just now without gap year plans to talk about. People already in a gap year who had their plans disrupted? Okay, and I'm sure some of them will actually be competitive, but nowhere near 4,000, or 10,000. Others are in gap years for a very good reason, and reacting to COVID by rushing an application will only serve to give them a head start on being a reapplicant.

 

[r2med]

No, I think there are several thousand people who rushed a last minute app due to COVID who don't have all the other things successful applicants have (research, shadowing, clinical and non-clinical experiences in sufficient hours, over a sufficient period of time, to be successful).

For the record, AAMC verification only verifies that what you say you have on your primary actually maps to official transcripts (courses and grades). Prereqs aren't verified until matriculation, since you can complete them right up until that time. MANY people complete at least some prereqs while applying.

I think it is EXTREMELY unlikely that 4,000 highly competitive applicants (40% of 10,000) suddenly materialized out of nowhere due to COVID to displace 4,000 other applicants who have been planning this cycle for years. JMHO, but I'm pretty sure I'm right.

Those several thousand are what I summarized as "stupid". I really doubt that many people just rushed in hoping for the best. But to your last point, because the admission system is crazy, it is most certainly possible that some or many of these so-called applied just like that people would have found a spot that would have otherwise gone to someone who has been preparing for a while.

Aamc should conduct a survey. Any aamc peeps on Sdn?

 

[r2med]

Seniors who planned gap year was due to lack in competitiveness. Doubt if they rushed into applying. I have not seen one such post in any of the threads I am following on sdn

 

[HopeP]

Add this as well, as per same article, only 5% of Stanford applicants didn't have MCAT score, yet 50% spike in applications, from a school point of view that is same as 45% increase in applicants, excluding 'MCAT blind' factor. So the magic number 40% will dip to 33% as medical seats are static for this cycle applicants.