The Interview Weibull

[petomed]

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For those of you who find comfort in numbers, see below. The assumptions are based on thing's I've read here and there. But make no mistake, it's all one big assumption. I'll update based on feedback.


Assumptions:

1. First possible day to receive II: 6/1/2021
2. Last possible day to receive II: 7/1/2022
3. 0 <= x <= 395 [days]
4. α = 3.0
5. β = 200
6. PDF = f(x,α,β)
7. CDF = f(x,α,β)
8. Peak odds of receiving an II occurs around Thanksgiving. This implies the PDF curve or instantaneous odds curve (solid line) is maximized around 11/25.
9. About half of all II's are handed out by Thanksgiving. Meaning the CDF curve or cumulative odds curve (dashed line) is ~50% by 11/25.

General Takeaways:

1. The odds of receiving an interview on the day of this post (9/8/21) are ~0.3%.
2. The odds of having received an interview by the day of this post (9/8/21) are ~11.4%.
3. The odds of receiving an interview on any single day of the ~395 day interview cycle are at most ~0.6%.
4. The odds of receiving an interview by New Year's day are ~70%.

 

[Goro]

My my, somebody was bored.

It doesn't work that way. If you app is poor, you get no IIs. If your app is great, you get plenty of IIs.

 

[petomed]

My my, somebody was bored.

It doesn't work that way. If you app is poor, you get no IIs. If your app is great, you get plenty of IIs.

Definitely. Perhaps my wording should have been more from the standpoint of interviews being handed out by admissions committees. The goal is to very subjectively capture the distributions for when those interviews are most likely to get sent out.