The Numbers

[exPCM]

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Originally posted by aprogdirector on a different forum but I think it is interesting data.
There were 338 derm positions in last year's match (combining both PGY-1 and PGY-2 offerings).

Of those 338, 328 spots went to US grads, 1 went to a USIMG, 1 to a DO, 7 to non-US IMG's, and 1 was unfilled. So, 97% went to US grads.

But, there were about 17,000 US grads last year (new and repeat applicants, ignoring those who withdrew or did not submit a rank list). 328/17,000 = 1.9%

There were ~5000 US IMG's in last year's match -- I included those who withdrew or no ROL as I guess that many of them took prematches. 1/5000 = 0.02%

So, you about 100x more likely to get a derm spot as a US grad, but the baseline chance is around 2%.

 

[Ischemia]

Originally posted by aprogdirector on a different forum but I think it is interesting data.
There were 338 derm positions in last year's match (combining both PGY-1 and PGY-2 offerings).

Of those 338, 328 spots went to US grads, 1 went to a USIMG, 1 to a DO, 7 to non-US IMG's, and 1 was unfilled. So, 97% went to US grads.

But, there were about 17,000 US grads last year (new and repeat applicants, ignoring those who withdrew or did not submit a rank list). 328/17,000 = 1.9%

There were ~5000 US IMG's in last year's match -- I included those who withdrew or no ROL as I guess that many of them took prematches. 1/5000 = 0.02%

So, you about 100x more likely to get a derm spot as a US grad, but the baseline chance is around 2%.

Well, assuming that those spots are absolutely completely randomly filled only by people coming out of US medical schools, then I suppose it does give a baseline chance of ~2%. But what an inane way of breaking down the numbers. This is completely uninformative.

What is somewhat telling is how many people apply for dermatology and then get it. I don't remember the numbers anymore as I'm a couple years outside the match, but it was something like 600 apply to only derm for those 328 spots. This means that more than 50% of those applying will match into derm.

 

[dermRus]

If we are talking numbers, lemme jump in too!

Ischemia is totally right in that the first set of statistics are pretty uninformative because they hold little relevance. You have to look at how many apply and then get it.

The other piece of the puzzle is that people that put down a backup (either prelims, transitionals, or another specialty) will not be counted as "unmatched" and will go under the radar when looking at statistics. With this in mind, the actual number of applicants is going to be higher than what any of the easily available statistics are going to show. We will always underestimate the total number of derm applicants...and this means that we will overestimate the actual match success.

However, using a baseline rate of 2% is interesting but way too low of an estimate because it is not relevant.

 

[Holistic]

Let me do a little math to ease yalls anxiety. The way I see it, there are probably about 520-550 total applicants because in that UNC rejection it specifically told us 519 apps, so these 4 times as many numbers being thrown around seems far fetched since most people pan apply, and UNC is a program most everyone applies to. So here are some other misconceptions regarding the charting outcomes. People who match a back up are still considered unmatched to DERM for the NRMP stats. Therefore, US seniors had a 70% chance of matching Derm, I dont know where these 1000 apps numbers come from because the numbers just dont seem to add up. The table on charting outcomes for last year on pg 35 shows numbers for distinct specialties ranked. it lists 1,2,3,4. The 1 group only ranked DERM and not an intern year as a backup because yes the NRMP counts prelim medicine as a distinct specialty if it is in the primary rank list as a backup if you dont match derm. However, it does not count in the supplemental list. So, the people who ranked 2 specialties on that chart that went unmatched didn't match derm, but they count as matched in the backup specialty stats, not in the derm stats. So again, people who match a backup, but not DERM count as unmatched in derm and if there are so many more people applying than spots why did UNC only get 519 apps. This is just my opinion, correct me if I am wrong.

 

[oracle07]

I don't think you can assume >90% of applicants applied to UNC.
I didn't.
I applied widely but by no means "pan-applied"
I also know of at least 2 residents who applied to <10 programs and still matched (which I personally think is crazy lucky).
Some people have a strong regional preference and definitely do not pan apply.

 

[sore eye asses]

For the love of God, someone please devise an equation that reveals the true number of applicants this year. That way we'll all be better off because...wait, why would we be any better off with this info?

I guess I would sleep easier tonight if I knew that only 564 people applied to derm this year.

However, if 614 applied, I'd probably just kill myself.

 

[starryskies]

.

 

[Long Dong]

sore eye asses: your posts are really keeping me going these days. im just chugging along, counting up my rejections, and then i see your post that "penn state just took a dump on my chest" and my will to live is renewed.

Agreed this guy/girl is pretty funny, even the name alone gets a laugh. Some one I'd like to work with and be around, because there is enough up tight divas in this field as it is.

 

[xyzyx]

The numbers thrown around by the first few posters are not relevant... they are citing the total number of applicants to all specialties. The Match % for derm depends on how many are applying to derm as some of you pointed out. That percentage has actually remained surprisingly stable over the last 4 or 5 years.

In fact, the most recent match, if anything, had a slightly more encouraging match %. 🙂

You should refer to Charting Outcomes 2009 document released by NRMP.
On Table 1 (which is on page 7 of that document... I have v3, if that makes a difference).

For dermatology:
Total positions offered 338
Total number of applicants 567

US Seniors:
Matched: 286
Not Matched: 125

Independent Applicants:
Matched: 48
Not Matched: 108

That comes out to...
US Seniors: 69.6% match into derm (if derm is their preferred specialty)
Independent Applicants: 30.8% match into derm (if derm is their preferred specialty)

These numbers are very encouraging for us.... In the past 3 years or so, the US Seniors match rate was steady at 60%.

Just to clarify:
This data is NOT confounded by the fact that almost all applicants will list prelims after derm programs, because obviously there are NOT going to be 125 US seniors who don't match into a prelim even. That table in the document I referred to is based on the number of people who match into their preferred specialty. (Of course there might be a few who listed another specialty AHEAD of derm, but those are going to be a very small minority, and probably will impact the % very little).

 

[sore eye asses]

sore eye asses: your posts are really keeping me going these days. im just chugging along, counting up my rejections, and then i see your post that "penn state just took a dump on my chest" and my will to live is renewed.

The sad thing is, if Penn state offered me an interview under the condition that the PD does, in fact, take a dump on my chest, I'd probably do it. This process has made worms meat of my dignity.

 

[Urticaria]

The numbers thrown around by the first few posters are not relevant... they are citing the total number of applicants to all specialties. The Match % for derm depends on how many are applying to derm as some of you pointed out. That percentage has actually remained surprisingly stable over the last 4 or 5 years.

In fact, the most recent match, if anything, had a slightly more encouraging match %. 🙂

You should refer to Charting Outcomes 2009 document released by NRMP.
On Table 1 (which is on page 7 of that document... I have v3, if that makes a difference).

For dermatology:
Total positions offered 338
Total number of applicants 567

US Seniors:
Matched: 286
Not Matched: 125

Independent Applicants:
Matched: 48
Not Matched: 108

That comes out to...
US Seniors: 69.6% match into derm (if derm is their preferred specialty)
Independent Applicants: 30.8% match into derm (if derm is their preferred specialty)

These numbers are very encouraging for us.... In the past 3 years or so, the US Seniors match rate was steady at 60%.

Just to clarify:
This data is NOT confounded by the fact that almost all applicants will list prelims after derm programs, because obviously there are NOT going to be 125 US seniors who don't match into a prelim even. That table in the document I referred to is based on the number of people who match into their preferred specialty. (Of course there might be a few who listed another specialty AHEAD of derm, but those are going to be a very small minority, and probably will impact the % very little).

Just as a note, I don't think this data includes everyone who applied, just everyone who submitted a rank list, and only those who ranked derm as their #1 specialty. I don't know how big of a difference this makes, but I'm assuming there must be people out there that did not get any derm interviews, thus not being able to submit a rank list that included derm programs. Hopefully this number is small, but it may be where the discrepancy in % matched is coming from.

 

[basupran]

Derm, an applicant matching into a backup is considered unmatched. As per the NRMP, the 1st ranked program is assumed to be the specialty of choice. If the student does not match into the specialty of their 1st choice (within the same field), then it is considered the student is unmatched.

Below is an excerpt from the 2009 COITM pub.
"For the purposes of this report, match success is defined as a
match to the specialty of the applicant’s first-ranked program,
because that is assumed to be the specialty of choice. Lack of
success includes matching to another specialty as well as failure
to match at all. No distinction was made based on whether
applicants matched to their first, second, third, or last choice."

The other piece of the puzzle is that people that put down a backup (either prelims, transitionals, or another specialty) will not be counted as "unmatched" and will go under the radar when looking at statistics. With this in mind, the actual number of applicants is going to be higher than what any of the easily available statistics are going to show. We will always underestimate the total number of derm applicants...and this means that we will overestimate the actual match success.

 

[dermhopefully]

What year is that supra? Man I hope I match derm, and I hope I work with fellow gearheads like you.

 

[basupran]

What year is that supra? Man I hope I match derm, and I hope I work with fellow gearheads like you.

The gearheads go into ortho (where I am headed). I have actually met quite a few gearheads in Gen Surgery as well. Best of luck with derm.