The Official August 2015 MCAT Thread

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vsantav

vsantav

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Registration opens up sometime today so I thought I'd go ahead and make this thread. Anyone else taking it in August?
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Asclepius3149 said:
Hey guys, I took the MCAT this past August. I'm taking a gap year and applying next cycle. I don't have much of a frame of reference so if anyone could give me some serious input concerning what type of schools at which I will be a competitive applicant I would really appreciate it!

Undergrad: Ohio State University
cumGPA: 3.71
scGPA: 3.65

MCAT: 516 (95th percentile)
Chem/Phys: 129 (93rd percentile)
CARS: 127 (81st percentile)
Bio/Biochem: 130 (97th percentile)
Psych/Socio: 130 (97th percentile)

Research Experience: 2 years wet lab, 1 year clinical, 1 publication (primary author)
~100 hours shadowing
~90 hours clinical volunteer experience (including 2 international service trips)
3 employment experiences (O.Chem TA, Physiology TA, part time summer job at OSU)
Leadership experience: Founded a research mentorship program at OSU, Planned move-in logistics at OSU, President of my fraternity, etc.

I really have no clue where to start when making my "list" of where to apply so literally any and all input would be greatly appreciated!
Click to expand...

Competitive literally everywhere. Increase volunteering over gap year.
 
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billeboi31 said:
I updated the MCAT Score Predictor spreadsheet to include reported July exams. The sample size from May/June was only 46, but now n=118 with the new July scores. I went back and tested the ranges on these exams - ~90% of the actual scores fell within the "Narrow" range from the predictor, and most of the outliers out-performed the predicted range. Not too shabby. But just as a reminder to trust your conscience/prep over some spreadsheet, one person who scored 77% on CARS from the AAMC FL got a 130 on CARS on the MCAT, whereas another who scored 98% got a 126. Likewise, someone who scored a 73% on P/S got a 132 and another with an 81% got a 122.

That being said, it seems like the predictor is actually pretty dang reliable for AAMC FL scores in the 70-90% range. Oh, and it got a face-lift :thumbup:
Click to expand...
NOOOOO this brought me down a point!!!!
 
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Bro, do you even stats? Law of Large Numbers. That data is BS.


(I hope it's not)
 
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I feel like it's really hard to know how accurate this predictor is just because we have no idea when everyone actually took the practice FL... like personally I took it 2 weeks before my actual exam, but I know a lot of people took it just a few days before their actual exam. Ahhhhhhh 5 more days ppl
 
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Pre-med-to-med said:
How accurate is the predictor? How many people had their scores in the narrow range ?
Click to expand...

Agreed, it's hard to look at all of this data together without knowing when the AAMC FLs were taken. In my opinion, 2 weeks out will hardly be different than 3 days out when you spend months on content and the last several weeks on practice tests. But since somebody asked, I do have some stats on the accuracy of the predictor. I went back and checked the 122 scores used to make the predictor (they come from @Xenith's compilation sheet) to see how many actual MCAT scores fell within the Likely/Narrow range.

103 of the 122 actual scores were either predicted within the "Narrow" range or above it. That's about 84%. 65 (53%) fell exactly within the range, 38 above (31%), and 19 below (16%). When you average together how far above or how far below the range those actual scores were, it comes to +0.35. So there's a greater deviation above the predicted range than below it. Remember, we're mostly talking about 507s that were predicted as 508-511, or 524s that were predicted as 518-522. So peanuts here.

But 84% within/above and +0.35 deviation should make you pretty happy if the predictor is giving you a range that you like and as long as nothing crazy happened during the actual MCAT.
 
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I literally have a test the same day as scores come out. Guess I'm not going to get any sleep the night before.
 
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TexasSurgeon said:
Mine predicts 508-511. I'm ok with that but I wish it were higher :/
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My predicted score was in that range too! I took the FL like 2 and a half weeks before the real exam. I honestly would be so happy if it's anywhere within that range. My friend used the predictor and they scored 10 points lower than their predicted score so...
 
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billeboi31 said:
Agreed, it's hard to look at all of this data together without knowing when the AAMC FLs were taken. In my opinion, 2 weeks out will hardly be different than 3 days out when you spend months on content and the last several weeks on practice tests. But since somebody asked, I do have some stats on the accuracy of the predictor. I went back and checked the 122 scores used to make the predictor (they come from @Xenith's compilation sheet) to see how many actual MCAT scores fell within the Likely/Narrow range.

103 of the 122 actual scores were either predicted within the "Narrow" range or above it. That's about 84%. 65 (53%) fell exactly within the range, 38 above (31%), and 19 below (16%). When you average together how far above or how far below the range those actual scores were, it comes to +0.35. So there's a greater deviation above the predicted range than below it. Remember, we're mostly talking about 507s that were predicted as 508-511, or 524s that were predicted as 518-522. So peanuts here.

But 84% within/above and +0.35 deviation should make you pretty happy if the predictor is giving you a range that you like and as long as nothing crazy happened during the actual MCAT.
Click to expand...
Wait so my range was 508-511. Does that mean I have a high chance of getting a 507? :O
 
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TexasSurgeon said:
Wait so my range was 508-511. Does that mean I have a high chance of getting a 507? :O
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Like a 16% chance of getting below 508 (according to the predictor). I'm sure you'll be fine and score above a 508. Not completely sure but I'm sure most of the variation comes from scores around 520 because missing 1 extra question in each section can have a dramatic effect, whereas scores around 510 won't have as significant of a drop off if you miss one more question than you did in the FL.
 
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I'm studying abroad this semester, so I will get my score when I wake up on the 23. I think that will help with the anxiety lol
 
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billeboi31 said:
Agreed, it's hard to look at all of this data together without knowing when the AAMC FLs were taken. In my opinion, 2 weeks out will hardly be different than 3 days out when you spend months on content and the last several weeks on practice tests. But since somebody asked, I do have some stats on the accuracy of the predictor. I went back and checked the 122 scores used to make the predictor (they come from @Xenith's compilation sheet) to see how many actual MCAT scores fell within the Likely/Narrow range.

103 of the 122 actual scores were either predicted within the "Narrow" range or above it. That's about 84%. 65 (53%) fell exactly within the range, 38 above (31%), and 19 below (16%). When you average together how far above or how far below the range those actual scores were, it comes to +0.35. So there's a greater deviation above the predicted range than below it. Remember, we're mostly talking about 507s that were predicted as 508-511, or 524s that were predicted as 518-522. So peanuts here.

But 84% within/above and +0.35 deviation should make you pretty happy if the predictor is giving you a range that you like and as long as nothing crazy happened during the actual MCAT.
Click to expand...
Thanks for calculating this. According to the predictor, getting a 71% correct is 128 on the actual exam, correct?
 
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I think what most people forget is that any single test cannot be a good predictor of your performance on the MCAT, even if we had scaling from AAMC. Those of us from the old MCAT should know very well that even back then when we had the official scaled scores on those full lengths (which we don't even have now), any single of those FLs was not a good predictor and it was only when we averaged 4-8 of those that we had a good idea of where we were +/-2. It's simply naive to bank too much on that predictor file. Yes, it gives you a good idea, whether or not for instance you are in the low 500s or high 500s range but any further than that, I wouldn't put my faith in it. As a side note, I have 2 friends who scored below their "wide-range" prediction, yet alone the "narrow range" one.... and n=150 is an infinitely small sample size compared to the hundreds of thousands people who take the MCAT.
 
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TheAnonymous said:
I think what most people forget is that any single test cannot be a good predictor of your performance on the MCAT, even if we had scaling from AAMC. Those of us from the old MCAT should know very well that even back then when we had the official scaled scores on those full lengths (which we don't even have now), any single of those FLs was not a good predictor and it was only when we averaged 4-8 of those that we had a good idea of where we were +/-2. It's simply naive to bank too much on that predictor file. Yes, it gives you a good idea, whether or not for instance you are in the low 500s or high 500s range but any further than that, I wouldn't put my faith in it. As a side note, I have 2 friends who scored below their "wide-range" prediction, yet alone the "narrow range" one.... and n=150 is an infinitely small sample size compared to the hundreds of thousands people who take the MCAT.
Click to expand...

I agree. if there are 20,000 total 2015MCAT test takers, that's less than 1% of test takers. Not saying the predictor can't be accurate, it just needs more statistical variation and significance.
 
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Rishikish said:
I agree. if there are 20,000 total 2015MCAT test takers, that's less than 1% of test takers. Not saying the predictor can't be accurate, it just needs more statistical variation and significance.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And then there are saying how this formula predicts 85% or something of the sample correctly - forgetting the fact that the formula was derived from that sample itself. You can try it's predicting power if you apply it to another sample of, let's say 100 people and see if it works or not. Again this is not to say that their formula is useless - I think given the circumstances it's by far the best tool that we have but I think it's naive to take it any more serious than a guiding tool
 
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Rishikish said:
I agree. if there are 20,000 total 2015MCAT test takers, that's less than 1% of test takers. Not saying the predictor can't be accurate, it just needs more statistical variation and significance.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more. Improving practice test to practice - even if it's 498-502-505 on TPR or Kaplan - should give you more confidence than any single-test predictor.
 
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billeboi31 said:
I updated the MCAT Score Predictor spreadsheet to include reported July exams. The sample size from May/June was only 46, but now n=118 with the new July scores. I went back and tested the ranges on these exams - ~90% of the actual scores fell within the "Narrow" range from the predictor, and most of the outliers out-performed the predicted range. Not too shabby. But just as a reminder to trust your conscience/prep over some spreadsheet, one person who scored 77% on CARS from the AAMC FL got a 130 on CARS on the MCAT, whereas another who scored 98% got a 126. Likewise, someone who scored a 73% on P/S got a 132 and another with an 81% got a 122.

That being said, it seems like the predictor is actually pretty dang reliable for AAMC FL scores in the 70-90% range. Oh, and it got a face-lift :thumbup:
Click to expand...

So according to the predictor a 63% in B/B scores as a 127. I've never seen such a generous scale. How are you guys determining this?
 
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struggling said:
So according to the predictor a 63% in B/B scores as a 127. I've never seen such a generous scale. How are you guys determining this?
Click to expand...

The MCAT predictor is explained earlier in the thread. Somebody in another thread made it with a tiny sample size, so I updated it using 122 AAMC FL and actual MCAT scores that were posted through @Xenith's compilation sheet. Then I constructed equations for lines of best fit using all 122 scores for each section and included them as formulae that estimate how your AAMC FL compares to others' and what they ended up getting on the actual MCAT.
 
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For the people that have taken the exam would you recommend doing the Khan Academy passages? I plan on doing the biology and psych/soc passages since I hear they are good. I'm wondering if you guys felt the Physics/Chem ones were useful as well? Any insight would be appreciated.
 
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nolookpass said:
For the people that have taken the exam would you recommend doing the Khan Academy passages? I plan on doing the biology and psych/soc passages since I hear they are good. I'm wondering if you guys felt the Physics/Chem ones were useful as well? Any insight would be appreciated.
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KA is good for P/S, since there were some terms I didn't know until I looked at KA vids (especially sociological terms). I didn't use KA for B/B and C/P that much and I felt pretty prepared (although I still have three days to receive scores, so we'll see).
 
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nolookpass said:
For the people that have taken the exam would you recommend doing the Khan Academy passages? I plan on doing the biology and psych/soc passages since I hear they are good. I'm wondering if you guys felt the Physics/Chem ones were useful as well? Any insight would be appreciated.
Click to expand...
P/C not so much but they were good for anatomy and physiology for B/B, I found. Good also for biochem IMO.
 
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2 and a half more days you guys!!!!! to make time go by faster, I've been eating and sleeping a lot, and also watching a lot of netflix. Tomorrow I plan on going shopping, and then monday=school, and then it would be tuesday tadaaaaa!!
 
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Thpinky said:
2 and a half more days you guys!!!!! to make time go by faster, I've been eating and sleeping a lot, and also watching a lot of netflix. Tomorrow I plan on going shopping, and then monday=school, and then it would be tuesday tadaaaaa!!
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Life's hawd doin' time.

The bolded made me laugh.
 
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TheAnonymous said:
Exactly. And then there are saying how this formula predicts 85% or something of the sample correctly - forgetting the fact that the formula was derived from that sample itself. You can try it's predicting power if you apply it to another sample of, let's say 100 people and see if it works or not. Again this is not to say that their formula is useless - I think given the circumstances it's by far the best tool that we have but I think it's naive to take it any more serious than a guiding tool
Click to expand...

This exactly. You can't test the predictive power of a tool by applying it to the sample it was derived from, since that is circular reasoning. To see how predictive it is, you would have to apply it to a separate validation data set. This is the same reason r^2 cannot be considered a measure of the 'predictive power' of a correlation.

The fact that it doesn't even 'predict' its own discovery data set with great success makes me think the predicted ranges are too narrow. 90 or 95% CI's would be better imo.
 
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EverStriving said:
This exactly. You can't test the predictive power of a tool by applying it to the sample it was derived from, since that is circular reasoning. To see how predictive it is, you would have to apply it to a separate validation data set. This is the same reason r^2 cannot be considered a measure of the 'predictive power' of a correlation.

The fact that it doesn't even 'predict' its own discovery data set with great success makes me think the predicted ranges are too narrow. 90 or 95% CI's would be better imo.
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Yeah but so anyway we should just wait patiently instead of trying to predict scores 2 f*cking days before they're released.
 
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Don't you people have homework/jobs? I'm about as neurotic as they come, but way too busy to obsess about scores every day on here :D
 
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Pusheen said:
Don't you people have homework/jobs? I'm about as neurotic as they come, but way too busy to obsess about scores every day on here :D
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Class doesn't start until Thursday. I think not being in school has actually made the wait easier tbh. Haven't thought about tests, volunteering, or any premed things at all this last month.
 
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yungspleen said:
Class doesn't start until Thursday. I think not being in school has actually made the wait easier tbh. Haven't thought about tests, volunteering, or any premed things at all this last month.
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Meanwhile I'm freaking out because I have volunteering and research and shadowing and grading and a test and a paper and a lab report and omg I can't do this :(:(
 
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Oh wait sorry I just realized I'm totally used to being highly stressed and don't care anymore.
 
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