The ultimate COVID thread

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BLADEMDA said:
Until the curve flattens and levels off the markets will be volatile and unlikely to trade much higher:

View attachment 300285
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stock is spiking up today. i think the bottom is over. investors are done with the panic phase. with trillions pumped in by the fed, and unlimited bond purchase, theres now no need to fear this virus anymore.
 
anbuitachi said:
stock is spiking up today. i think the bottom is over. investors are done with the panic phase. with trillions pumped in by the fed, and unlimited bond purchase, theres now no need to fear this virus anymore.
Click to expand...

The spike up is big boys crushing the options market for all the people who shorted or hedged when it was too late. Once those are cleared out the S&P at the very least is going to test the lows of this month before a longer term move higher.
 
anbuitachi said:
stock is spiking up today. i think the bottom is over. investors are done with the panic phase. with trillions pumped in by the fed, and unlimited bond purchase, theres now no need to fear this virus anymore.
Click to expand...
Fear the Fed. Worse than any virus.
 
nimbus said:
How did we end up with more cases than China? And soon to be more deaths?

They went first. They and several other countries showed us how to contain it. Now our crisis is worse than theirs. We didn’t have to figure anything out on our own. All we needed to do was cheat off them by copying them.
Click to expand...


You actually believe the Chinese Communist Party?

The same one that lied to the WHO about coronavirus not being very infectious, or able to spread between humans?

Did you see the news about riots in Wuhan? Maybe you're not seeing the full picture.
 
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You can't make this stuff up:

"“You should come to Chinatown. Precautions have been taken by our city. We know that there is concern about tourism all throughout the world, but we think it’s very safe to be in Chinatown. I hope that others will come,” said Pelosi at a dim sum restaurant Monday afternoon."

😆😆😆
 
hankbb02 said:
I know that's what Faux News is telling you to think but I would be cautious about throwing that line of rhetoric around when Trump sound like he can't string a sentence together. I listened to a Trump interview with CNN 20 years ago and he sounded like he wasn't an idiot.
Click to expand...

Age related cognitive decline, or something worse? Goldwater rule be damned, BTW
 
www.yahoo.com

Markets May Have Found What They're Looking For

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The global stock market rallied on Monday for the fourth time in five days. The MSCI All-Country World Index is up 15.9% since March 23, led higher by gains in the U.S. Does this mean the carnage is over? Nobody can say for sure, and for every Wall Street firm saying yes...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Markets May Have Found What They're Looking For


1585623103844.png


a huge sign market is coming back strong.
 
anbuitachi said:
www.yahoo.com

Markets May Have Found What They're Looking For

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The global stock market rallied on Monday for the fourth time in five days. The MSCI All-Country World Index is up 15.9% since March 23, led higher by gains in the U.S. Does this mean the carnage is over? Nobody can say for sure, and for every Wall Street firm saying yes...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Markets May Have Found What They're Looking For


View attachment 300383

a huge sign market is coming back strong.
Click to expand...
Catching a falling knife, dead cat bounce also come to mind!!

I hope it does, but I really can't see it. We're about 3 weeks off the worst of this yet. If this happened in 3 weeks time then yeah sure, but now is way too early. A massive stimulus plan was just chucked at the economy and It barely rallied 5% after being down 25% in the last 3 weeks. We gotta good way to go yet methinks! I'll still buy tho soon. In 35 years time when my reckoning comes ill probably be right!!
 
Newtwo said:
Catching a falling knife, dead cat bounce also come to mind!!

I hope it does, but I really can't see it. We're about 3 weeks off the worst of this yet. If this happened in 3 weeks time then yeah sure, but now is way too early. A massive stimulus plan was just chucked at the economy and It barely rallied 5% after being down 25% in the last 3 weeks. We gotta good way to go yet methinks! I'll still buy tho soon. In 35 years time when my reckoning comes ill probably be right!!
Click to expand...

but stocks arent really based on how many deaths there are. there were plenty of bad news ttoday and stocks still went up, and futures look up too.
the people who feel the deaths the most are us clinicians.
 
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Ezekiel2517 said:
Click to expand...


Sir, please do not politicize the issue by highlighting that our commander-in-chief who is in charge of fighting a deadly nationwide pandemic makes the same mistakes as a 4th grader doing his first book report, sir.




 
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Newtwo said:
Id say we'll easily see 3k per day for a couple weeks in the states at the peak in about 2 weeks time.
what do you think?
Click to expand...



I would feel relieved if it plateaued at that level. Unless there is a medical breakthrough, I don’t see any indication why it would.


76B137ED-A14C-44AC-9EDD-EED2CCA8DC5F.jpeg
 
Is there any reason to think all of your big cities will be any different to Madrid, Milan, nyc?
ie 800 dead per day in every large city ... not all at the same time, but at some point in this pandemic.
 
nimbus said:
I would feel relieved if it plateaued at that level. Unless there is a medical breakthrough, I don’t see any indication why it would.


View attachment 300399
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I know it's not the "true" case number, but the diagnosed case rate looks like it may be decelerating indicating that people might be taking distancing more seriously

Screenshot_20200330-235650_Chrome.jpg



Could be just a lull though until the idiots in Florida cause like 3m cases cause they refuse to stay the F inside.
 
vector2 said:
I know it's not the "true" case number, but the diagnosed case rate looks like it may be decelerating indicating that people might be taking distancing more seriously

View attachment 300400


Could be just a lull though until the idiots in Florida cause like 3m cases cause they refuse to stay the F inside.
Click to expand...


Yes the count is testing constrained. Lots of people with symptoms who want to be tested are still being told to tough it out at home unless they are high risk or a HCW. If they do get tested, they are in the midst of weeklong turnarounds and not included in the count.
 
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dchz said:
Not gonna lie, I believed him.

Thought to myself: damn Soeul is bigger than NYC metro and BeiJing Combined.
Click to expand...

Don't feel bad. His ability to bluster and occasionally project as if he knows a lot about something when in fact he knows pretty much nothing about anything is a large part of how he gained support.
 
vector2 said:
I know it's not the "true" case number, but the diagnosed case rate looks like it may be decelerating indicating that people might be taking distancing more seriously

View attachment 300400


Could be just a lull though until the idiots in Florida cause like 3m cases cause they refuse to stay the F inside.
Click to expand...
What I haven't seen explained is what happens after the daily new cases significantly decreases. When we eventually go out and play doesn't this disease keep spreading until we have herd immunity or a good vaccine?

Everyone understands the concept of flatten the curve under the health care capacity and a potential shortage of ventilators. Except that everything I read and every physician I talk to says vent patients are doing horribly so it's as if vent capacity is not as critical as it appears. If it came down to preserving vents for those with a better than poor chance of surviving I don't think it would change the number of deaths by much at all.

So what I'm asking can someone explain the public health concept of how staying inside for months at a time (which will not cease all spread of the virus) will significant lower the final number of deaths, other than buying time for a cure or vaccine? Or is buying time the primary purpose? Thanks
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
What I haven't seen explained is what happens after the daily new cases significantly decreases. When we eventually go out and play doesn't this disease keep spreading until we have herd immunity or a good vaccine?

Everyone understands the concept of flatten the curve under the health care capacity and a potential shortage of ventilators. Except that everything I read and every physician I talk to says vent patients are doing horribly so it's as if vent capacity is not as critical as it appears. If it came down to preserving vents for those with a better than poor chance of surviving I don't think it would change the number of deaths by much at all.

So what I'm asking can someone explain the public health concept of how staying inside for months at a time (which will not cease all spread of the virus) will significant lower the final number of deaths, other than buying time for a cure or vaccine? Or is buying time the primary purpose? Thanks
Click to expand...

Healthcare capacity. Once we know healthcare system can cope with surge then things will open up. That’s the number that matters in responding to this. Not deaths, not number of people infected.
 
anbuitachi said:
www.yahoo.com

Markets May Have Found What They're Looking For

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The global stock market rallied on Monday for the fourth time in five days. The MSCI All-Country World Index is up 15.9% since March 23, led higher by gains in the U.S. Does this mean the carnage is over? Nobody can say for sure, and for every Wall Street firm saying yes...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Markets May Have Found What They're Looking For


View attachment 300383

a huge sign market is coming back strong.
Click to expand...

while that may be correct, that graph is a perfect example of how to mislead people with an inappropriately labeled Y axis.
 
anbuitachi said:
why? whats inappropriate about it?
Click to expand...

because if the Y axis started at 0 and went up to 2600, that straight vertical line up would barely be a blip instead of appearing to be like a 5x increase from the previous baseline
 
nimbus said:
I would feel relieved if it plateaued at that level. Unless there is a medical breakthrough, I don’t see any indication why it would.
Click to expand...
JobsFan said:
Is there any reason to think all of your big cities will be any different to Madrid, Milan, nyc?
ie 800 dead per day in every large city ... not all at the same time, but at some point in this pandemic.
Click to expand...

no country in the world has surpassed 1k dead per day in the official count. not sure why USA will. perhaps we will but most likely not
 
anbuitachi said:
no country in the world has surpassed 1k dead per day in the official count. not sure why USA will. perhaps we will but most likely not
Click to expand...

we are going to be awfully close by the end of this week
 
Mman said:
we are going to be awfully close by the end of this week
Click to expand...

wont be surprised if we surpass 1k a day. cause its US. we are always #1. but i dont believe we will surpass 3k/day
though i think if counts are accurate, india has a good chance of surpassing everyone
 
anbuitachi said:
wont be surprised if we surpass 1k a day. cause its US. we are always #1. but i dont believe we will surpass 3k/day
though i think if counts are accurate, india has a good chance of surpassing everyone
Click to expand...

The MyPillow guy just prayed for everyone at the White House yesterday, so I think we’ll see a drastic reduction in cases today. It’ll probably be cured by tomorrow.
 
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  • Goldman Sachs has revised its coronavirus projections, seeing an even bigger impact on GDP and employment.
  • The firm sees the jobless rate topping out at 15% and GDP sagging by a record 34% in the second quarter.
  • That will be followed, though, by a 19% rebound in the third quarter that would be the highest on record, Goldman said


So, when do I buy more stocks? I still think the market will re-test near 2200 at some point in the next 4 weeks. I could easily be wrong and instead we trade in the 2500-2650 range until May. If we do not re-test 2200 then the market will likely stabilize in May before going higher in June. The key is to keep track of the case load/death rate from Covid 19 and look for a leveling off. Once the market smells "the worst is over" stocks likely go higher to 2800.
If I miss buying equities in that short interval of 2500-2650 then I will buy at 2800 once the vast majority of investors/traders see the "all clear sign."
 
Goldman sees the main propulsion coming from fiscal and monetary support greater than expected. Congress has recently passed a $2 trillion rescue package aimed at a variety of targets, and Goldman expects another measure on the way specifically aimed at supporting state governments. The Federal Reserve also has taken its benchmark interest rate to near zero and has rolled out a number of other programs aimed at supporting the economy.

In addition, measures taken to contain the coronavirus spread, specifically through social distancing and increased testing, will “result in sharply lower new infections over the next month, and our baseline is that slower virus spread and adaptation by businesses and individuals should set the stage for a gradual recovery in output starting in May/June,” Goldman wrote.

However, that won’t happen without sharp contractions in manufacturing, particularly autos as well as consumer spending, that will be offset by food and beverage production and medical equipment.

“We expect manufacturing to recover somewhat more rapidly than services, as factories are likely to reopen more quickly than non-essential services firms,” Goldman wrote.

The firm’s estimates come amid a plethora of downbeat forecasts of how bad things could get in the near term and the uncertainty of how sharp the recovery will be.
 
1585662567109.png


IMHO, if the market re-tests that 2200 level you should be buying stocks. Another possibility is we bounce around 2500-2700 for the entire month of April. The odds favor another move lower the first 2 weeks of April but we shall see what happens.
 
anbuitachi said:
no country in the world has surpassed 1k dead per day in the official count. not sure why USA will. perhaps we will but most likely not
Click to expand...

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info


Worldwide daily deaths went from 71 on March 1 to 3700+ today. The United States currently has over 500 deaths per day. Our growth in cases and deaths seems to track the worldwide numbers. It seems likely to me that the United States be over 3000/day sometime in April unless we find an effective treatment.
 
vector2 said:
Sir, please do not politicize the issue by highlighting that our commander-in-chief who is in charge of fighting a deadly nationwide pandemic makes the same mistakes as a 4th grader doing his first book report, sir.




Click to expand...


There's a lot of stupidity coming from that 100-IQ fellow.

"It's a 'good job' if nobody else dies." Um, no, that would be supernatural and miraculous.

Also, nothing wrong with My Pillow guy participating in the press conference, given that his company has stepped up to produce 50k N95s/day. That's industrial heroism. It's a wonderful national example.

Correction: masks are not N95
 
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radsisrad said:
"It's a 'good job' if nobody else dies." Um, no, that would be supernatural and miraculous.
Click to expand...

When he said that obviously it was hyperbole for significantly reduced deaths would be a good job. You know it. I know it. Don't be disingenuous.
 
nimbus said:
www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info


Worldwide daily deaths went from 71 on March 1 to 3700+ today. The United States currently has over 500 deaths per day. Our growth in cases and deaths seems to track the worldwide numbers. It seems likely to me that the United States be over 3000/day sometime in April unless we find an effective treatment.
Click to expand...

The reports that the white house were looking at (some look quite reasonable) showed a peak in deaths around 2200/day on 4/15. I think that number is a bit conservative but the problem will be that the peak will be more a plateau since all our cities will be peaking at different times due to the initial spread pattern. Detroit, Chicago, NOLA will be the first wave after NYC. Then the next group of cities (Miami, Boston, ATL, etc) will follow and we will have a peak that lasts 3-4 weeks as opposed to one and done.
 
radsisrad said:
Also, nothing wrong with My Pillow guy participating in the press conference, given that his company has stepped up to produce 50k N95s/day. That's industrial heroism. It's a wonderful national example.
Click to expand...

He is not making N95 masks, he is making cotton masks which will not do anything to prevent a HC worker from getting exposed. They are more useful for people to avoid spraying it around the room, not to protect you from them.
 
Mman said:
He is not making N95 masks, he is making cotton masks which will not do anything to prevent a HC worker from getting exposed. They are more useful for people to avoid spraying it around the room, not to protect you from them.
Click to expand...

Furthermore, even if he were making n95s, the concept that that would be some kind of industrial heroism is laughable. I certainly would appreciate the fact there will be more masks, but let's look at the reality. 1. The guy's business is likely way down because no one is buying a stupid 50 or 100 dollar pillow or whatever during a recession. 2. It's not like he's manufacturing and donating the masks for free. 3. He likely demanded this 1/3 jesus, 1/3 trump praise, 1/3 my pillow plug infomercial before agreeing to do anything.
 
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