The ultimate COVID thread

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So to the investment gurus out there, do you see this as a significant event, are you just going to ride this out or are you altering your investments expecting a downturn?
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JobsFan said:
So to the investment gurus out there, do you see this as a significant event, are you just going to ride this out or are you altering your investments expecting a downturn?
Click to expand...

Changing course would be a mistake. Stop looking for 6 months to a year.


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No one can time the market.

The expectations are lower, but did you not see that the Chinese injected a **** ton of money into the economy? Which one ends up on toP?

who knows.
 
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JobsFan said:
not reliably - no doubt about that.
but I think COVID19 will cause significant impact.
Click to expand...

What would you change now and why? When will you get back in? You have to be right twice. Looking at indices: VTSAX and SP500 are up over the last week, month, year, 5 years. VTIAX is down over the last week but is also extremely volatile and I don’t know if the down is due to coronovirus or just typical volatility. I guess you could invest in something health care with the intent that the vaccine will cause that sector to roar, but probably not...you’d likely have to pick the right company that develops the vaccine. Good luck with that.

Benign negligence is the WCI philosophy. I think that applies in this situation.


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I sold most of my retirement funds and put 50% of the proceeds to buy into a small company called "Medical Products Ltd" (based in Georgia). :thumbup:
 
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Not changing anything, of course. See the last 72 threads about market timing in the face of the terror-of-the-day.

You can believe the world economy will continue to grow over the next 20-50 years, and can sit back and take your share without thinking or worrying. If you're anxious that this might be untrue, you can save more, spend less, and/or position yourself to need less if it all goes to hell.

Or you can believe you know something the market doesn't, despite all evidence to the contrary, and confer in serious tones with "gurus" about when to time the market ...

One set of beliefs is rational, and one is not.
 
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i’ve found it interesting how there is nothing clinical on this topic on this board.

i wonder how much media attention this is getting in the US, we are on asia’s doorstep - it’s a pretty big deal
 
JobsFan said:
i’ve found it interesting how there is nothing clinical on this topic on this board.
Click to expand...
Here are my clinical though in a thread titled COVID 19 econ:

Droplet isolation with N95 mask just in case.

Lung protective strategy on ventilation.

Make sure the venous cannula isn't up against a wall when you put them on VV ECMO.
 
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Whatever you do, remember nobody has it worse than Mednax "partners" who lost 20% of their equity just today. Most buy-ins are 250k, so just like that $50k drained away in one day...Mednax stock has to be one of the most useless equity stakes in the world.
 
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USCTrojan11 said:
Whatever you do, remember nobody has it worse than Mednax "partners" who lost 20% of their equity just today. Most buy-ins are 250k, so just like that $50k drained away in one day...Mednax stock has to be one of the most useless equity stakes in the world.
Click to expand...
In general, owning stock in the company where you are an employee is foolish. If you got that stock as part of your employment, it's best to dispose of it as soon as you are contractually able to. Having a large chunk of your net worth in one company, and having your income depend on that same company, is the ultimate anti-diversification. Add a dash of emotional connection (positive or negative) to the decision to keep or sell that particular equity, and it's just begging for things to end in tears.
 
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Neopolymath said:
I believe N-95 can filter 0.3 micron but the virus is 0.08 micron anyways.
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I don't think they've conclusively established how the novel coronavirus is transmitted, if it's primarily large droplet borne (probably) or if it's airborne like TB, measles, smallpox, legionnaire's disease, etc. There's evidence that some flu and coronaviruses might be transmissible on droplet nuclei, which can remain suspended in air for a long time, but it appears that this is "possible within the realm of physics" as opposed to "common" ....

Definitions vary but most put "droplets" at > 5 um and "droplet nuclei" at > 1 um though I've seen > 0.5 um also. An N95 mask ought to be fine if it fits properly. I'm in no hurry to test this out myself.

Anyway, point being, airborne virus transmission via free-floating individual virus bodies, not carried by dust or water droplets, doesn't seem to be a thing. So I think the 0.08 um size of one virus entity isn't an important number.
 
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pgg said:
I don't think they've conclusively established how the novel coronavirus is transmitted, if it's primarily large droplet borne (probably) or if it's airborne like TB, measles, smallpox, legionnaire's disease, etc. There's evidence that some flu and coronaviruses might be transmissible on droplet nuclei, which can remain suspended in air for a long time, but it appears that this is "possible within the realm of physics" as opposed to "common" ....

Definitions vary but most put "droplets" at > 5 um and "droplet nuclei" at > 1 um though I've seen > 0.5 um also. An N95 mask ought to be fine if it fits properly. I'm in no hurry to test this out myself.

Anyway, point being, airborne virus transmission via free-floating individual virus bodies, not carried by dust or water droplets, doesn't seem to be a thing. So I think the 0.08 um size of one virus entity isn't an important number.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately the virus can be transmitted by patients who have not yet developed symptoms, so when are you going to put an n95 on?
 
JobsFan said:
Unfortunately the virus can be transmitted by patients who have not yet developed symptoms, so when are you going to put an n95 on?
Click to expand...
Only on the rare occasions when I get out of MOPP 4, I'm not crazy. :)

I hear you but that's a separate issue. I'm just saying that at this point it seems pretty likely that a properly worn N95 will do the trick, provided you're not licking your fingers after touching contaminated surfaces or letting people cough in your eyeballs. Only so much you can do. :(
 
AdmiralChz said:
What’s your point here? Trying to desperately show us how we are all so wrong?
Click to expand...
No, highlighting this is a significant event and it will have some fallout.

I am one of the least financially literate people here, but I‘m sure the old mantra of time in the market, not timing the market is the right thing to do...
 
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yeah no one can time the market. This was me > 2 years ago:

dchz said:
I'm 31, a resident that is maxing out Roth IRA every year.

100% of my investments are sitting in cash.

"no one can time the market", but i'm timing the market.

The plan is to go in 100% on the lowest cost index fund when the market corrects.
Click to expand...


the S&P 500 has gained about 40% since i posted that. All my roth still sitting in cash. :1poop:
 
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JobsFan said:
No, highlighting this is a significant event and it will have some fallout.

I am one of the least financially literate people here, but I‘m sure the old mantra of time in the market, not timing the market is the right thing to do...
Click to expand...
There's a giant chasm of a gap between recognizing that [world event] can impact a segment of the economy, and turning that recognition into consumer-investor level stock market trades that will profit from that event.

Unavoidable pitfall #1 is that by the time you have recognized the event, everyone else has too, and that event is factored into prices. You, sitting at home, reading the news on the internet, simply can't and don't get actionable information in time.

Unavoidable pitfall #2 is that believers in market timing see volatility surrounding these events (in retrospect, of course) and interpret that volatility as some kind of missed opportunity to make rational trades. Everything is obvious in retrospect. They look at volatility and think Gee I could have predicted that (or even Gee I did predict that). And they convince themselves that they have the insight to predict future moves because history is obvious. Fear of missing out makes them take risks that are objectively reckless.

The only reliable bridge an individual can take across that chasm is illegal insider trading, where an individual has non-public data (e.g. earnings reports before release).

Market returns are there for the taking. Take them. If they're not good enough for your goals, you have rational options
1) spend less
2) save more
3) need less
4) earn more

Market timing is gambling, and the house has an advantage. If you're going to jump in and out of positions with United Airlines because the coronoavirus is affecting tourism and the world looks a little darker outside, you might as well put that cash on 17 black at the MGM Grand, wait for the spin, and collect your winnings or mourn your losses. You'll get your result immediately, and you'll even know the odds going in.
 
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dchz said:
yeah no one can time the market. This was me > 2 years ago:




the S&P 500 has gained about 40% since i posted that. All my roth still sitting in cash. :1poop:
Click to expand...

It's a good lesson to learn in the very early years of your investing career. :)

My big market timing moves as a student and resident also lost a ton of money. Of course, "a ton" of money to me then is a day's paycheck now ... it's an education I paid for, except instead of my tuition going to a university my tuition went to the endless void of E*Trade.
 
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pgg said:
It's a good lesson to learn in the very early years of your investing career. :)

My big market timing moves as a student and resident also lost a ton of money. Of course, "a ton" of money to me then is a day's paycheck now ... it's an education I paid for, except instead of my tuition going to a university my tuition went to the endless void of E*Trade.
Click to expand...

FWIW, i knew this would be the outcome a good portion of the time. The total amount that I would have earned/lost is about 1 week's paycheck as an attending. Looking back at the decision. I still believe it was +EV (schilling index was high, everything felt like a bubble etc).

Either way I HAD to see it. It's like as a scientist, i knew drinking baking soda probably won't make my workouts better. But I just had to try it once, it's out of my system now, but everything is still in cash lol.
 
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dchz said:
FWIW, i knew this would be the outcome a good portion of the time. The total amount that I would have earned/lost is about 1 week's paycheck as an attending. Looking back at the decision. I still believe it was +EV (schilling index was high, everything felt like a bubble etc).

Either way I HAD to see it. It's like as a scientist, i knew drinking baking soda probably won't make my workouts better. But I just had to try it once, it's out of my system now, but everything is still in cash lol.
Click to expand...

I had done a few individual stock purchases early on of companies I didn’t evaluate properly, because I thought I knew better based on news or products.

I keep one investment in my portfolio to remind me that I have lost using that strategy.
 
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dchz said:
FWIW, i knew this would be the outcome a good portion of the time. The total amount that I would have earned/lost is about 1 week's paycheck as an attending. Looking back at the decision. I still believe it was +EV (schilling index was high, everything felt like a bubble etc).

Either way I HAD to see it. It's like as a scientist, i knew drinking baking soda probably won't make my workouts better. But I just had to try it once, it's out of my system now, but everything is still in cash lol.
Click to expand...
Sounds like it's not out of your system if you're still all in cash. Just do it man. Throw it all into something other than cash. You're literally LOSING money due to inflation. You could throw it all into a Target date retirement fund, s&p500, VTSAX, or any other low cost total market fund. You're young with a very long investment horizon. Even if you have 50k in your Roth IRA and it loses half its value, you'll be just fine.

www.whitecoatinvestor.com

Dollar Cost Averaging Is For Wimps

Learn what dollar-cost averaging IS and ISN'T and why there are better ways to reduce risk. Manage emotions, avoid regret, and skip the hassle of DCA.
www.whitecoatinvestor.com www.whitecoatinvestor.com
 
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@dchz, do NOT try to time the market. The only reason not to be 100% (not considering the emergency funds) in stocks, at your age, is to sleep well at night. Set it to a S&P 500 or total stock market index or target fund, and forget it for 30 years.

And lump sum investing beats DCA most of the time, because the market goes up 80% of the time (at least historically).

Especially as a trainee, invest all the money you can afford in stocks. This is all peanuts when compared to your attending salary, but it gets really big after 30-40 years, through the magic of compounding. Bonds have been dangerous, because one could lose money if interest rates go up (and there isn't much space for them to go down). Invest as much as it would allow you to sleep well at night, even if the market drops 50-60%.
 
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369F887D-30C3-465B-9280-DBCC7AEFAF03.jpeg
 
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Wowsers, been awhile since we had a 3% gap down. Hopefully we can get a correction over the next week or so so I can start adding again
 
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JobsFan said:
www.wsj.com

Dow Industrials Close 1,000 Points Lower as Coronavirus Cases Mount

Investors around the world stepped up their retreat from stocks and piled into haven assets like government bonds and gold, reflecting escalating worries that the coronavirus will crimp global growth.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
:corny:
Click to expand...
It's the retroscope, man. Beware.

pgg said:
Everything is obvious in retrospect. They look at volatility and think Gee I could have predicted that (or even Gee I did predict that). And they convince themselves that they have the insight to predict future moves because history is obvious.
Click to expand...

Here's my bet: you won't bump this thread with another popcorn icon in 6 months if the market is up 5% from today.

The risk is seeing what you expect to see and you think it validates your belief that you can predict these moves before they happen. Confirmation bias is real and it's dangerous to investors.
 
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dchz said:
yeah no one can time the market. This was me > 2 years ago:




the S&P 500 has gained about 40% since i posted that. All my roth still sitting in cash. :1poop:
Click to expand...

if you have pile of cash, today might be a good day to add. DOW 2.5% down on futures
 
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JobsFan said:
not reliably - no doubt about that.
but I think COVID19 will cause significant impact.
Click to expand...
If it goes global we are looking at 5 million dead Americans, 117 million dead globally if it spreads to maximum predicted levels (60%), half that if control measures limit it to Spanish Flu penetration levels. The economic impact of a global pandemic could cause a global depression. If it is contained early, which is looking to be exceedingly less likely, the prediction is an end to widespread infection by the end of April, with economic impacts lasting months instead of years.
 
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There is a lot of work going on right now to deal with the Coronavirus:

www.clinicaltrialsarena.com

Coronavirus treatment: Vaccines/drugs in the pipeline for COVID-19

Coronavirus drugs: Here are five major coronavirus vaccines and drugs being developed for the treatment of Wuhan coronavirus. coronavirus medicine; corona virus cure; coronavirus cure update, coronavirus cure, coronavirus vaccine update, cure for coronavirus, coronavirus treatment update
www.clinicaltrialsarena.com www.clinicaltrialsarena.com
 
abolt18 said:
Sounds like it's not out of your system if you're still all in cash. Just do it man. Throw it all into something other than cash. You're literally LOSING money due to inflation. You could throw it all into a Target date retirement fund, s&p500, VTSAX, or any other low cost total market fund. You're young with a very long investment horizon. Even if you have 50k in your Roth IRA and it loses half its value, you'll be just fine.

www.whitecoatinvestor.com

Dollar Cost Averaging Is For Wimps

Learn what dollar-cost averaging IS and ISN'T and why there are better ways to reduce risk. Manage emotions, avoid regret, and skip the hassle of DCA.
www.whitecoatinvestor.com www.whitecoatinvestor.com
Click to expand...
FFP said:
@dchz, do NOT try to time the market. The only reason not to be 100% (not considering the emergency funds) in stocks, at your age, is to sleep well at night. Set it to a S&P 500 or total stock market index or target fund, and forget it for 30 years.

And lump sum investing beats DCA most of the time, because the market goes up 80% of the time (at least historically).

Especially as a trainee, invest all the money you can afford in stocks. This is all peanuts when compared to your attending salary, but it gets really big after 30-40 years, through the magic of compounding. Bonds have been dangerous, because one could lose money if interest rates go up (and there isn't much space for them to go down). Invest as much as it would allow you to sleep well at night, even if the market drops 50-60%.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's not totally out of my system. LOL

I still think it's + EV to be in cash and my (very small) portfolio is gonna be riding on that assumption... Let's all just enjoy the ride with me and laugh at it later.
 
Today is 02/24/2020, there is no way I'm buying in on the way down right now. My investment horizon is so long that this won't matter, but it'll be a fun sweat!!!

I'm gonna quote this in a few years to look back on how good this move was....
 
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nimbus said:
Why would I invest in an evil pharmaceutical company? Especially one in California run by immigrants? They’re just trying to give us autism.
Click to expand...

And besides, viruses have feelings too.
 
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Goro said:
This too shall pass.
Click to expand...
of course it will, my point was this will be a significant event.

hope you all hold your nerve and don’t sell in the down turn.

i agree that attempting to time the market is generally a bad idea, but for me this time it was just too clear. a virus causing an economic disruption in the worlds most important economy (china) which was being underestimated by the market.

of course i still need to get back in ...
 
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The market was overheated to begin with. Another 3-4 percent decline from these prices and I’ll start adding to my positions. A correction is long overdue and I still think the Coronavirus has not been priced in to these levels. The economic impact for the next 2 quarters will be significant. Still, by summer or early fall I would expect a snap back rally to occur. The bigger long term impact to stocks is Bernie Sanders. That is definitely not priced in yet. A Bernie victory in November may result in a 20 percent decline
 
Hot takes from blamemda. Little does he realize stonks only go up!
 
Donald Pump says the stock market is looking good to him right now!
 
I like adding a little bit of equities today. I expect another 3-5 percent decline from here. China’s central bank is pumping in liquidity. Earnings will be impacted this quarter and next quarter.

If you have cash to invest start looking again at equities. You may want to dip your toe today today or tomorrow. Again, another 5 percent down from here is likely over the next week or two.
 
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