For what it's worth, I think reputation is more important than the SDN consensus, and less important than what most mothers think.
For what it's worth, the majority of people who matched at my #1 choice for residency came from "top 10" institutions. I'm happy with my #2, but I think that if I had gone to one of the "top 10" schools that accepted me, I would probably have gotten one of those spots. My scores were nearly the highest applying in my specialty, my letters strong but not from huge names (which seems to matter more than I thought last year), and my clinical evals universally strong. I didn't know that my #1 would be my favorite until interview day, so I did my away rotations at a different program (that I ended up not liking) and couldn't make connections that way.
Reputation isn't everything, but it can make the process easier. Beyond a vaguely defined top 10-20, I don't think it matters.