Ya but that has nothing to do with predictability or being a "crapshoot". If I had unlimited funds, time, and patience (along with starts that are approximately average), I could reasonably assume that I would get into at least one school. I would be able to apply to every single school. If I was a broke-@$$ that could only afford to apply to one school with the same stats, then I would have a much less chance, statistically, at being admitted. With my stats and the fact that I was financially and otherwise able to apply to 10 schools, I was able to reasonably assume that I would be admitted to at least one school (even though I applied super late). I was right. And I might even have yet another acceptance of a waitlist that I'm on right now. Numerically screening schools will typically tell you what their automatic cutoffs are for numbers if you ask them. That is if they don't already have them posted on their website. If you don't meet those requirements then you shouldn't waste your time applying to those schools. The essays you write on yoru primary AMCAS may not be looked at before the point that they decide to send you a secondary, but they will most likely be accounted for in the "entire package" when the school is deciding whether to invite you for an interview or not. Then when you do get invited for an interview you can come on SDN, read your applications over, think about reasonable questions they might ask and you'll easily be able to assume what kinds of questions they may ask. If, by past experience, you know that you're also a likable person who knows how to talk/interview well on top of knowing what may be asked of you, then you will probably be able to say you did well on the interview. Save one school, I've been able to predict what will happen to my application at every school I applied to.