Thoughts on this Step 1 Score Hypothesis

[collateraldamage]

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I recently took step 1 and was browsing different forums and what caught my eye was that Phloston and someone on another forum came up with an approximate % correct to get a certain score.

The formula came out to be: 3-digit # = (%Correct)x2.8

If you used this formula, the numbers would come out to be:

3-digit score / Missed per 322 / % correct / Missed per 46q block

270 / 11.5 / 96.4 / 1.64
260 / 23 / 92.9 / 3.29
250 / 34.5 / 89.3 / 4.93
240 / 46 / 85.7 / 6.57
230 / 57.5 / 82.1 / 8.21
220 / 69 / 78.6 / 9.86
210 / 80.5 / 75 / 11.5
200 / 92 / 71.4 / 13.14
190 / 103.5 / 67.9 / 14.79

Reasons that this formula might be a good approximation:
1. The 3-digit for passing (192) matches what is thrown around % correct wise (65-70%)
2. The % correct for every 10 points is slightly easier then the % NBME (reason why NBME is good score predictor and the reason why everyone says the real thing has better curve)

Reasons that this formula shouldn't hold too much stock:
1. If there are weighted questions then this wouldn't account for that
2. This formula takes every question into account (but there is wide range of experimental Q on exam)
3. The % correct for the higher scores seem too strict

Anyways, I brought this up to see what everyone's opinions are about this. Too harsh, too lenient, about right? Anyone have anecdotal evidence that refutes or supports the formula. Just killing time here. Best of luck.

 

[Tyler D]

5 incorrect per block and still u make it to 250...
that seems to lenient imo..
just my 2 cents..

 

[AlmostAnMD]

5 incorrect per block and still u make it to 250...
that seems to lenient imo..
just my 2 cents..

Is that sarcasm?? A 90% on each block is phenomenal imo

 

[Ionian]

It's exactly right. Even if it isn't you'll never know.

And even if you knew, that information is never going to help your score.

Your goal is to be in the top percentile, the exact number questions wrong/right has no meaning, it's how you did compared to everyone else.
The ones in the 97th percentile and up are the ones studying right now, not the ones analyzing some pointless math.

Now go back to studying.

 

[Flamen04]

How many experimental Qs are there in each exam?

 

[Ionian]

How many experimental Qs are there in each exam?

Are you serious?

There are probably like 3 people in the world that know the exact number of experimental Qs (if any), on each of the many (and high variable) forms.

-.-

Let's just say its 30. So when you walk out, thinking you missed 30, you can just chalk that up to experimentals and say you got a 100 if that makes you feel better.

 

[Flamen04]

Are you serious?

There are probably like 3 people in the world that know the exact number of experimental Qs (if any), on each of the many (and high variable) forms.

-.-

Let's just say its 30. So when you walk out, thinking you missed 30, you can just chalk that up to experimentals and say you got a 100 if that makes you feel better.

Sweet! I should get a 270 then cuz I thought Step 1 was pretty easy

 

[Donald Juan]

How many experimental Qs are there in each exam?

It really doesn't make any difference. For some reason, there is a trend that everyone on here always thinks the off the wall questions are experimentals, but never thinks the easy ones are. In reality there is no reason to think that a hard question must be experimental, or that an easy question isn't.

I remember the same thing on here years ago when I was taking my MCAT...

 

[WilburSK]

The NBME curves are quite a bit harder than stated in this post. I wonder if there is more wriggle room on the real deal

 

[operaman]

There's a little more leniency at the high end. I'm almost certain I missed ~30 questions and scored in the mid 260s.

 

[notbobtrustme]

It really doesn't make any difference. For some reason, there is a trend that everyone on here always thinks the off the wall questions are experimentals, but never thinks the easy ones are. In reality there is no reason to think that a hard question must be experimental, or that an easy question isn't.

I remember the same thing on here years ago when I was taking my MCAT...

true, but the reasoning is pretty sound, IMO. Questions that are experimental are more likely to be things you've never seen rather than things you've been exposed to over and over for the past 2 years, simply because the point of experimentals is introducing new material to the test in a graded manner. I highly doubt that anyone expects us to know what Rubenstein-Taybi syndrome is right now, but if many people see the same material over and over, eventually medical school curriculum catches up.

An experimental question regarding the pathophysiology of the RAA system, on the other hand, doesn't make much sense because this system is hammered over and over in our medical education. Sure, it might have a weird way of wording it, but I wager that kind of question would be legit rather than an experimental, mainly because that is **** that we have to know.

 

[WilburSK]

Any other thoughts on this? My mentality is that I have 5 questions that I can miss per block. Do you think if I succeeded at this goal, I could get a 250?

 

[lymphohystiocytosis]

Don't be absurd. Pretty sure I missed way more than 5 per block and I got a 255.

Just take the damn test already.

 

[WilburSK]

haha…i like that response. i only ask cause the i missed about 5 per block (21 total) on nbme 13 and i got a 247. i wondered if there was more leeway on the real deal cause quite a few people get 24o+

 

[Donald Juan]

haha…i like that response. i only ask cause the i missed about 5 per block (21 total) on nbme 13 and i got a 247. i wondered if there was more leeway on the real deal cause quite a few people get 24o+

It doesn't matter. Regardless of how it is actually scored, people that consistently make 240's on NBMEs usually make that on the test.