Too many medical schools opening in the near future?

[Python Forever]

Recently saw this post in premeddit. It looks like just between 2019-2021, there will be 7 new DO schools opening ( for school details), and recently Kaiser MD and California U MD have opened up.

However, it doesn't look like the number of residency spots have increased at the same rate as the # of medical student spots.

What does this potentially mean for the future of MD/DO? It doesn't look like the # of new MD schools is increasing as much as # of new DO's, so perhaps there will be little to no effect on MD graduates. But what about DO's?

Will this potentially make DO much more selective, at least at the more established schools? Something like greater # of newer DO schools -> higher competition/demand for the older DO schools -> stats creep on those accepted.

I guess it's something more along the lines of "newer DO's will struggle more while older/established DO's see little to no effect"?

Someone suggested that medicine may be going the way of law (saturated market), but I don't ever see that happening due to the sheer amount of time/commitment/stats required to really have a shot at becoming a doctor, PCP or otherwise.

This isn't to create some MD/DO debate. If you want to argue over which degree is more suited to becoming a pediatric prenatal onconeurosurgeon who only operates on the left side of the brain on Thursdays when the blood moon is up, please do so somewhere else.

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[ciestar]

Whoot! Whoot! Whoot! Whoot! Whoot! Whoot! Six New Schools on COCA Agenda

PCOM-Moultrie GA, VCOM-Monroe LA, MNCOM-Gaylord MN, SHSU-Conroe TX, LMU-Knoxville TN, NSU-KPCOM Clearwater FL Six schools, Six Whoots https://osteopathic.org/wp-content/uploads/coca-agenda-april-2019.pdf

forums.studentdoctor.net

There is a thread about this over in the DO forums as well.

 

[Faha]

I estimate that with all the new MD and DO schools that have opened or will open in the time frame of 2015 to 2024 that there will be another 3,000 MD students and 4,000 more DO students over that time period. The total would be 23,500 MD and 10,500 DO- 34,000 total. However, 1,000 of those will be lost to attrition (historical average) so 33,000 graduates. This year there were 32,000 PY-1 positions offered in the match. That will increase slowly to perhaps 34,000 by 2025 . There will be enough residency positions for all those graduates. Those who will be hurt by all those new medical students in this country are all the foreign medical graduates who will be applying for US residencies.

 

[efle]

If anybody is going to lose spots, it's going to be international applicants. They currently make up a big chunk of our yearly IM and primary care matches.

 

[aldol16]

I think it wouldn't be a good idea to be the guinea pigs for a new med school unless you have no other choice. Not just because they're ironing out wrinkles in their curricular things out on you but also because the schools are not known to program directors. If PD has the option between someone who trained at a school that is known for producing quality residency candidates versus someone who trained a school that has never sent anybody to their program before, who do you think they'd choose? While you may have a degree of control over your preclinical education (i.e. if it sucks you can find outside resources like BnB to supplement), you have no control over your clinical training because you're basically a blank slate and have nothing to reference it to. So if you get terrible clinical training, that's an issue. And it would become an issue for future candidates from your school as well.

Regarding the number of residency spots, I don't think it ever gets easier from here. The number of applicants has always risen in recent years and it's not like they're creating a ton of new residency spots. At the same time, I don't think the applicants from the newer schools will be as competitive for the super competitive specialties due to multifactorial reasons (some listed above) so I don't think the impact in those fields will be as high. Most of the impact will be in primary care and specifically on the lower-tier end of primary care residencies. Many of these are filled by IMGs, so as people have said above, it's likely that the IMGs will be the ones who will be having the turf war.

 

[965978]

If anybody is going to lose spots, it's going to be international applicants. They currently make up a big chunk of our yearly IM and primary care matches.

Don’t forget neuro and path!

 

[ndafife]

I estimate that with all the new MD and DO schools that have opened or will open in the time frame of 2015 to 2024 that there will be another 3,000 MD students and 4,000 more DO students over that time period. The total would be 23,500 MD and 10,500 DO- 34,000 total. However, 1,000 of those will be lost to attrition (historical average) so 33,000 graduates. This year there were 32,000 PY-1 positions offered in the match. That will increase slowly to perhaps 34,000 by 2025 . There will be enough residency positions for all those graduates. Those who will be hurt by all those new medical students in this country are all the foreign medical graduates who will be applying for US residencies.

There will undoubtedly be more than 34k positions in 2025 at the present rate of growth of residency positions.
There were 32,194 PGY-1 positions in 2019, 30,232 PGY-1 positions in 2018, and 28,849 in 2017.

But I definitely agree that the squeeze is going to be on the foreign grads as the rate of increase of US grads begins to outpace the rate of increase of residency programs

 

[puahate]

I estimate that with all the new MD and DO schools that have opened or will open in the time frame of 2015 to 2024 that there will be another 3,000 MD students and 4,000 more DO students over that time period. The total would be 23,500 MD and 10,500 DO- 34,000 total. However, 1,000 of those will be lost to attrition (historical average) so 33,000 graduates. This year there were 32,000 PY-1 positions offered in the match. That will increase slowly to perhaps 34,000 by 2025 . There will be enough residency positions for all those graduates. Those who will be hurt by all those new medical students in this country are all the foreign medical graduates who will be applying for US residencies.

i feel like those numbers are cutting it close. we need a bigger buffer

 

[scrapy]

If anybody is going to lose spots, it's going to be international applicants. They currently make up a big chunk of our yearly IM and primary care matches.

Are you sure? From what I've gathered, PD's aren't necessarily going to bless US MD's more just because there are more of them. From my understanding, the kind of IMG's that match matched because they're superstars and overcame being IMG's in many different ways.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

I recently read this: Proposed Bill Targets Medical Resident Program, Physician Shortage
I'm not sure how to feel about it, but on one end we do need more residency programs, but at the same time too many residency programs could slowly diminish the value of the medical degree.

 

[puahate]

I recently read this: Proposed Bill Targets Medical Resident Program, Physician Shortage
I'm not sure how to feel about it, but on one end we do need more residency programs, but at the same time too many residency programs could slowly diminish the value of the medical degree.

Schools need to stop opening especially DO schools. LCME and COCA need to take action.

 

[Isoval]

Schools need to stop opening especially DO schools. LCME and COCA need to take action.

My best guess is that DO schools continue to open because the AOA wants a gambling token - “Yeah? Well, half of all medical students are DO students”. The problem is that most of the new schools are uh...💩

They take too many people. They open seemingly randomly. The resources at half of them are dismal. There’s on in Florida that literally looks like they took over a Walmart. Sigh.

 

[Goro]

Schools need to stop opening especially DO schools. LCME and COCA need to take action.

My best guess is that DO schools continue to open because the AOA wants a gambling token - “Yeah? Well, half of all medical students are DO students”. The problem is that most of the new schools are uh...💩

They take too many people. They open seemingly randomly. The resources at half of them are dismal. There’s on in Florida that literally looks like they took over a Walmart. Sigh.

Do not attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. The AOA simply believes "more DOs good!"

LCME has no say in what COCA does.

As to the OP, Kaiser, CalUMD and NYU-LI all have teaching hospitals ready to go and the supply of residencies to go with them. In essence, they're hospitals with attached med schools, not the usual other way around. This seems to be a trend lately.

 

[efle]

Are you sure? From what I've gathered, PD's aren't necessarily going to bless US MD's more just because there are more of them. From my understanding, the kind of IMG's that match matched because they're superstars and overcame being IMG's in many different ways.

I dunno, when a rural primary care/IM residency matches a high proportion of Caribbean grads, I don't think it's because they're superstars that the residency prefers over USMDs. I think that's the applicant pool they receive and have to work with. If they suddenly had a bunch more USMD grads I think they'd steal away the spots

 

[PreMedMissteps]

My best guess is that DO schools continue to open because the AOA wants a gambling token - “Yeah? Well, half of all medical students are DO students”. The problem is that most of the new schools are uh...💩

They take too many people. They open seemingly randomly. The resources at half of them are dismal. There’s on in Florida that literally looks like they took over a Walmart. Sigh.

Which one is that?

 

[sunshinefl]

My best guess is that DO schools continue to open because the AOA wants a gambling token - “Yeah? Well, half of all medical students are DO students”. The problem is that most of the new schools are uh...💩

They take too many people. They open seemingly randomly. The resources at half of them are dismal. There’s on in Florida that literally looks like they took over a Walmart. Sigh.

Okay I’m against school proliferation as well, but don’t just say random things that aren’t true.

Here are the DO campuses in Florida—

Which one is that?

None. He/she is just making stuff up.

 

[scrapy]

I dunno, when a rural primary care/IM residency matches a high proportion of Caribbean grads, I don't think it's because they're superstars that the residency prefers over USMDs. I think that's the applicant pool they receive and have to work with. If they suddenly had a bunch more USMD grads I think they'd steal away the spots

Hmm yeah. I was referring to non rural/non remote programs. These programs can and will take top 1% IMGs

 

[Isoval]

Okay I’m against school proliferation as well, but don’t just say random things that aren’t true.

Here are the DO campuses in Florida—
View attachment 259211View attachment 259212View attachment 259213



None. He/she is just making stuff up.

I believe the school I had in mind was Larkin, but I’m having trouble finding the news post I was referring to. I read it something like a year ago.

IIRC, they were going to hole up in an old high school.

 

[Imperatrice]

I believe the school I had in mind was Larkin, but I’m having trouble finding the news post I was referring to. I read it something like a year ago.

IIRC, they were going to hole up in an old high school.

I believe the article you're referring to is this one:
Larkin Health Sciences Institute College of Pharmacy enrolls 80% minorities

The building used to be owned by Everest College (which fell apart some years ago), and it's for their pharmacy school.

 

[Isoval]

I believe the article you're referring to is this one:
Larkin Health Sciences Institute College of Pharmacy enrolls 80% minorities

The building used to be owned by Everest College (which fell apart some years ago), and it's for their pharmacy school.

Thanks! I was really wracking my brain over that one. It took me like half an hour to come up with Larkin.

 

[thissuckslol]

 

[puahate]

View attachment 259322

How do we battle this?

 

[thissuckslol]

How do we battle this?

in terms of degree devaluation? i think we're screwed. The only way this doesn't happen is for DO schools to start getting much more competitive, which they definitely are, but to a level closer to MD schools for admission. I mean how else does a degree hold its value at that point? If it's not selective then it's not valuable, but if it's selective then it is valuable. More like if anyone can get something then why hold it to a high standard? The same thing is happening to undergraduate colleges right now. It is 10x harder to get into schools like USC, UCLA, UCI, etc, etc now than it was 6 years ago when I applied. Now getting into college is ACTUALLY an accomplishment whereas before it was just an expectation of most kids.

But in terms of delivering care and actually making improvements to the health of the united states, I think it's a pretty basic approach in improving it. Not many people understand that the "doctor shortage" in some counties, for example the inland empire in southern california, is because the people who go through medical school don't want to end up in areas like these for the rest of their lives. It's one thing to just spam more doctors into the world hoping that it's going to make things better for the general public, but it's another to realize how they're distributed and where they're working to see if there isn't a shortage after all. Maybe an uneven distribution. There's gotta be better ways to create better incentives for physicians working in low income areas for extended periods of time.

At least in the end from all of that there's some measure to try and prevent people from not matching due to a lack of spots. Hopefully they can keep that in mind as they decide on class sizes for these new schools.

 

[deleted804295]

Okay I’m against school proliferation as well, but don’t just say random things that aren’t true.

Here are the DO campuses in Florida—
View attachment 259211View attachment 259212View attachment 259213



None. He/she is just making stuff up.

That looks like offices not medical schools. Honestly reminds me of my highschool. Gaudy glass with brick

 

[thissuckslol]

That looks like offices not medical schools. Honestly reminds me of my highschool. Gaudy glass with brick

i think there are much better things to be critical of other than looks.

 

[deleted804295]

i think there are much better things to be critical of other than looks.

I was quoting the posts talking about looks of the campus.

 

[PreMedMissteps]

That looks like offices not medical schools. Honestly reminds me of my highschool. Gaudy glass with brick

I haven’t seen that many medical schools, but the ones Ive seen are often not as attractive, architecturally as the undergrad buildings of the same school.

What are some of the best looking med school buildings? I mean ones that have a traditional college look.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Bumping an old discussion because it is still important to see and compare with 6 years ago. A few more MD schools have opened and will be opening soon.

Georgia intending to open in 2026

https://www.wsav.com/news/local-news/georgia-news/progress-report-on-univeristy-of-georgia-medical-school/

 

[Obnoxious Dad]

in terms of degree devaluation? i think we're screwed. The only way this doesn't happen is for DO schools to start getting much more competitive, which they definitely are, but to a level closer to MD schools for admission. I mean how else does a degree hold its value at that point? If it's not selective then it's not valuable, but if it's selective then it is valuable. More like if anyone can get something then why hold it to a high standard? The same thing is happening to undergraduate colleges right now. It is 10x harder to get into schools like USC, UCLA, UCI, etc, etc now than it was 6 years ago when I applied. Now getting into college is ACTUALLY an accomplishment whereas before it was just an expectation of most kids.

But in terms of delivering care and actually making improvements to the health of the united states, I think it's a pretty basic approach in improving it. Not many people understand that the "doctor shortage" in some counties, for example the inland empire in southern california, is because the people who go through medical school don't want to end up in areas like these for the rest of their lives. It's one thing to just spam more doctors into the world hoping that it's going to make things better for the general public, but it's another to realize how they're distributed and where they're working to see if there isn't a shortage after all. Maybe an uneven distribution. There's gotta be better ways to create better incentives for physicians working in low income areas for extended periods of time.

At least in the end from all of that there's some measure to try and prevent people from not matching due to a lack of spots. Hopefully they can keep that in mind as they decide on class sizes for these new schools.

In fact, admissions are becoming less competitive at DO schools. The average MCAT score among all DO matriculants in 2021 was 504.73. In 2024 the average was 502.97. You can bet the farm that people are getting in at some DO schools with MCAT scores that are significantly below 500 because the average at the established state schools like MSU, Ohio U, TCOM and Oklahoma State is around 505-507. See this:

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aacom.org%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fresearch-reports%2Fapplicant-and-matriculant-average-mcat-2016-2024.xlsx%3Fsfvrsn%3D4fbf4377_9&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

 

[Goro]

In fact, admissions are becoming less competitive at DO schools. The average MCAT score among all DO matriculants in 2021 was 504.73. In 2024 the average was 502.97. You can bet the farm that people are getting in at some DO schools with MCAT scores that are significantly below 500 because the average at the established state schools like MSU, Ohio U and is around 505-507. See this:

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aacom.org%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fresearch-reports%2Fapplicant-and-matriculant-average-mcat-2016-2024.xlsx%3Fsfvrsn%3D4fbf4377_9&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

There are do schools that are so desperate to fill seats that they are admitting people they previously rejected in the same cycle!

 

[polymerization]

Interesting. I didn't even notice it was an old thread because somehow we're still concerned about the same things even in the wake of a major pandemic and total institutional collapse/capture.

It reminds me of the kinds of conversations I'd have when I was truly lost and considering FNP. Everyone was worried that saturation will get worse and compensation will go down if you can find a job at all. A lot of fear about ending up in a situation where you can't continue training because your program can't meet some requirement (for FNPs, programs that require them to find their own preceptors to graduate; obviously, preferred residency matching for MD/DOs).

Maybe it's just my own naïveté, but even with everything that is happening, is it really realistic for the market to disadvantage physicians in particular? With all of the education and increasing competition in this field, I can't imagine that the people truly competitive for medicine will tolerate the risk associated with training if they can reach the precipice of residency and then face the possibility of not matching...or a dystopian situation where advanced practice providers fully take over primary care or even areas like anesthesiology—given that CRNAs, AAs, and debatably, even PAs can cover that service.

Worse, I wonder if the decline in DO selectivity will encourage a comeback to the perceived superiority of the MD over the DO despite identical licensure. Yikes. It's no wonder everyone wants to do a super-specialty if at all feasible. Even the MD docs I've kept in touch with in FM are struggling hard. It's jarring to witness.