Try to quantify benefit of applying to more schools

[postbacpremed87]

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Take an average applicant who has a 3.67-3.71 sGPA/cGPA and has a 30/31 MCAT score. AAMC says the average applicant applies to 14. I think charts that some have created here state that an applicant with those stats has (roughly) a 65-70% chance of admission somewhere. If one has the money and drive to apply to 20-22 schools how much do you think it would increase that 65-70% chance? Perhaps create a new range of 68%-72% or larger 70-75%? I know it is hard to quantify, but applying to more and applying more broadly would yield what benefit?

Also when I say I would apply to more, this means I would do it smartly by applying to a lot of less competitive (low-mid tier med schools).

 

[sector9]

Take an average applicant who has a 3.67-3.71 sGPA/cGPA and has a 30/31 MCAT score. AAMC says the average applicant applies to 14. I think charts that some have created here state that an applicant with those stats has (roughly) a 65-70% chance of admission somewhere. If one has the money and drive to apply to 20-22 schools how much do you think it would increase that 65-70% chance? Perhaps create a new range of 68%-72% or larger 70-75%? I know it is hard to quantify, but applying to more and applying more broadly would yield what benefit?

Also when I say I would apply to more, this means I would do it smartly by applying to a lot of less competitive (low-mid tier med schools).

As vc7777 points out in my thread with a bunch of graphs, it is impossible to start talking about your chances like this (see here http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?p=11381114&postcount=87)

If you rephrased the question to say "Historically, what percentage of applicants with these stats were accepted if they applied to 30 schools vs. 5 schools" then you would have a valid question (albeit unanswerable based on the data released by AAMC)

Keep in mind that the data for the graphs is the population. That means that the data already include applicants who applied to 30 schools or 5 schools.

 

[postbacpremed87]

I am willing to take opinions (which I am fully aware have no basis in fact)...conjecture can be interesting though

As vc7777 points out in my thread with a bunch of graphs, it is impossible to start talking about your chances like this (see here http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?p=11381114&postcount=87)

If you rephrased the question to say "Historically, what percentage of applicants with these stats were accepted if they applied to 30 schools vs. 5 schools" then you would have a valid question (albeit unanswerable based on the data released by AAMC)

Keep in mind that the data for the graphs is the population. That means that the data already include applicants who applied to 30 schools or 5 schools.

 

[sector9]

I am willing to take opinions (which I am fully aware have no basis in fact)...conjecture can be interesting though

Ok. Well my guess is like 5% increase. This is based on diminishing returns. If you aren't competitive at 10 of the "less competitive" med schools, why would applying to 10 more mean you're going to magically become a lot more competitive? There's going to be a slight bump but not as much as applicants would like

 

[postbacpremed87]

So marginally 👍. You never know...out of that extra 6 or 7...one of those could be your 1 acceptance. That's what I like to think.

Ok. Well my guess is like 5% increase. This is based on diminishing returns. If you aren't competitive at 10 of the "less competitive" med schools, why would applying to 10 more mean you're going to magically become a lot more competitive? There's going to be a slight bump but not as much as applicants would like

 

[UnclePhil]

God, I hate when people start pulling out these numbers. They are meaningless when it comes to an individual and there is so much subjectivity that is not taken into account.

But if you feel more comfortable adding more schools, then do it. I had a 3.75+ gpa and 35+ mcat and got into ONE medical school and was waitlisted at another. And to add to that, I almost didn't apply to either of the schools (one because I didn't have the right letters of recommendation, the other because I thought it was too big of a reach school) and added both at the last minute months after I submitted my other secondaries and bombed my first interview.

 

[Local Native]

I think it just depends on how you spread those school selections out. If you add five reach schools then your chances are obviously diminished, but if you air on the side of caution and add safeties then I'm sure those percentages go up. Some good advice I got was to apply to about 20% safety, 20% reach, and 60% "good shot at" schools.

 

[ppfizenm]

I would say barely any increase. I think once you hit a certain number of schools, depending on how competitive you are, your chances remain pretty much the same.

 

[BrightandClear]

I tend to think about it as applying to more schools may not increase your overall chances, but does increase your odds of applying to the school that has just the right fit for you as an individual.

Schools aren't all duplicates of each other, they look for different things in applicants. Thus, a 3.5/30 alone doesn't buy you the same chance of admission at every school.

 

[osprey099]

So marginally 👍. You never know...out of that extra 6 or 7...one of those could be your 1 acceptance. That's what I like to think.

Applying to more schools definitely helps your chances but to a very small degree. Statistically speaking, the probability of you getting into a med school will increase.

 

[theseeker4]

A more interesting question regarding the numbers is, how many of the ~14 schools the average applicant applies to tend to be reach schools if looked at realistically? How often do students believe that they are super-competitive because they are less-informed and only apply to top-tier schools? How many disregard the schools they are most likely to be admitted to because "I don't want to go there, that is a low-ranked school."?

Also, let's say an applicant has average stats and EC's, and applies to all of their in-state schools. How much would each additional school increase their admission chances? They are already applying to the schools they are most likely to gain admission to, so how much would applying to additional schools really help them? (assuming MD applications, ignoring DO for purposes of argument) This obviously doesn't apply to California, but you get the point.