Well, I'm guessing that this is part of the problem. I don't fault you for holding out for your top choice...if there was a school that I felt was a better fit for me, I would do the same. But I think this is what many schools (state schools in particular) safeguard against by waitlisting/holding people...they want to make sure that the folks that they accept REALLY want to go there, and aren't just applying as a "back-up". (And, IMO, these are the people who SHOULD get first dibs on the seats
those who are sure of their choice and not holding out for something better") I'll bet that if you wrote that letter of intent, you'd get in. But time is ticking by quickly, and who knows how many letters they get in a week? A month? I dunno. My point is, if they are your first choice, and you want to go there, let them know. Otherwise, you can't complain about them not letting you in, because you haven't done all that you can to get accepted. 🙂
Out of curiosity, who are you holding out for? PM me if you're not comfortable posting it...I'm not gonna try to give you advice or anything, I'm just curious!