How do you think AI will impact this field? And is that new midlevel thing confirmed? I thought it was just a proposal.
AI will make it so RadOncs can do more work in less time. Some institutions are already using the new midlevel. The proposal is that it becomes more widespread and I expect it to happen. Both of these things have potential to significantly worsen the job market for physicians.
Agree with NMS. I think creation of a new midlevel without a need has a chance of driving down pay since most of us are employees.
The paper I asked you to read talks about it some: "Therefore, it is possible the upper RVU range of the model will need to be increased (and can be using the ASTRO Workforce Modeling Tool) to truly reflect the possible elasticity in the years to come, as well as accounting for increased efficiencies, allowing for greater wRVU generation (eg, autocontouring, use of advanced practice providers). In the most extreme elasticity scenario (labeled worst-case scenario in Table 2), these parameters translated into a substantial oversupply of 1300 ROs in 2030 as ROs would increase their wRVUs to match that of the highest region (potentially to compensate for reimbursement reductions, loss of technical revenues from hypofractionation, loss of RT indications as well as increased efficiencies that would allow for this without drastically increasing hours required)."
This means as we become more efficient, you will need less of us, whether it be from AI or midlevels or decreasing reimbursement making physicians see more patients and stop hiring.
While it doesn't seem like it's going to happen enough by 2030, the AI will only continue to improve workflows and the use of a new advanced practice provider will both eventually reduce the need for physicians. The baseline model said that by 2030, we will be stable with where we were when there were concerns of oversupply and that the authors believe there is a chance it continues to worsen into the 2030s.
Now you can read all of that and still think "won't happen to me". It won't happen to any of us in our own minds because we are all special. It will be someone else, right? When your neighbor loses a job it's a recession, when you lose a job it's a depression. But maybe there are more and more new indications that offset decreasing indications and new efficiencies. Maybe pay continues to stay high for the next 30 years even though we are constantly targeted for pay cuts. Maybe the job market doesn't become extremely tight and competitive like it has in the past.
Like NMS said I would also recommend considering other specialties unless you feel that this is the only thing you want to do. No one can truly predict the future, but so many things are happening that convince me I will some day be working the same job for 250k, and I'm fine with that because I like the job. Do you like the job that much? If you do then apply. If you think you're going to be making 600k in LA or Manhattan you'll probably be on SDN in the 2030s warning people.