Updated MCAT Percentiles

[Gurby]

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[777137]

Only med school apps can make you feel scoring a 97th percentile is inadequate. I was hoping my MCAT would carry my average GPA so yea, pretty salty right now.

We're all gunners on the inside 😉

 

[TFredrick]

As someone with a 506 and 507 and just under a 3.5 GPA that was already extremely worried about his chances I am even more worried now.

 

[777137]

As someone with a 506 and 507 and just under a 3.5 GPA that was already extremely worried about him chances I am even more worried now.

ya, your group took a huge hit :/

 

[Goro]

Does this really mean anything to those that have already taken the test or no?

I consider the changes to be trivial.

 

[MareNostrummm]

This is interesting, it hits the mid-low tier scores really hard, the higher tiers kinda meh, and doesnt touch them god tier scores.

A 3% drop is huge for the lower scores around 500.. that's equivalent to losing a full point. Gotta keep the riff raff out somehow right?

If I had a 505 I would be pissed (70% -> 67%).

Also sucks if you had a 513 (90% -> 89%).

 

[mwsapphire]

I'll do that now, thanks!

Edit: My table is now updated. Also copying this from below for better visibility.

Here are the composite score percentile changes (e.g. 519 went from 98th to 97th so it is -1)

That looks almost like a bell curve? More change in the middle, less on the tails. This sucks the most for MD Matriculant average score-ers.

 

[Nietzsche's Barber]

Such nonsense. I wonder if they will kick me out of medical school now even though I'm acing all of my courses...🙄

Everyone, I would relax. A 3% difference will not make an adcom toss your app in the garbage (IMO)...that is a trivial difference.

 

[Gurby]

Such nonsense. I wonder if they will kick me out of medical school now even though I'm acing all of my courses...🙄

Everyone, I would relax. A 3% difference will not make an adcom toss your app in the garbage (IMO)...that is a trivial difference.

99.9% vs 99% is an order of magnitude.

 

[SpringsHTTR]

A 3% drop is huge for the lower scores around 500.. that's equivalent to losing a full point. Gotta keep the riff raff out somehow right?

If I had a 505 I would be pissed (70% -> 67%).

Also sucks if you had a 513 (90% -> 89%).

Having a 505, I can tell you this morning felt like a gun shot wound. At 70th percentile I felt my head barely was above water. At 67th percentile now, the coffin may have just closed.

Sent from my SM-G930V using SDN mobile

 

[kingjames132]

if you're applying in the current cycle, do schools see the new percentile of your mcat?

 

[tbonez71]

if you're applying in the current cycle, do schools see the new percentile of your mcat?

The answer is unfortunately yes. Look at your updated score report. Kinda sucks for those who took it near 2015, and had less reliable study materials.

 

[libertyyne]

Tfw the 519 bourgeoisie get lumped with 518 proletariat score

 

[watermelon master]

I still think the following guidelines are maintained

520+ = apply anywhere (including top tiers)

515-519 = very competitive (could add some top tiers but the statwhores could be hesitant)

510-514 = competitive for low and mid tier schools

505-509 = borderline applicant for MD; competitive for DO

The only schools that would split hairs over percentile changes are those with the medians of >97th percentile

Wait what, 505-509 is borderline applicant for MD?

How do you explain 508 point something being the average for matriculants?

 

[Lucca]

Wait what, 505-509 is borderline applicant for MD?

How do you explain 508 point something being the average for matriculants?

"competitive" on SDN typically means that your chances are better than a coin flip. As an average applicant (3.7/508) your chances are about ~50%. Scoring above 510 puts your chances at about 60% on average.

https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

It's not that "borderline" applicants *won't* ever get into medical school, but applicants with borderline stats are going to need to apply DO, apply to many schools and broadly, and have strengths in other parts of their application to ensure their success. A 3.9/521 just needs to be a regular human being with the boxes checked and apply to a reasonable number of schools to feel secure, hence, they are "very-competitive".

 

[efle]

Wait what, 505-509 is borderline applicant for MD?

How do you explain 508 point something being the average for matriculants?

If 509 is what gets the average person in, and keep in mind that is reduced a lot by people from lucky states, it makes sense to call the range just below it borderline. Get below that (500-504) and you're into the zone where you need URM status or something else helping your odds for an otherwise average person

 

[watermelon master]

"competitive" on SDN typically means that your chances are better than a coin flip. As an average applicant (3.7/508) your chances are about ~50%. Scoring above 510 puts your chances at about 60% on average.

https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

It's not that "borderline" applicants *won't* ever get into medical school, but applicants with borderline stats are going to need to apply DO, apply to many schools and broadly, and have strengths in other parts of their application to ensure their success. A 3.9/521 just needs to be a regular human being with the boxes checked and apply to a reasonable number of schools to feel secure, hence, they are "very-competitive".

If 509 is what gets the average person in, and keep in mind that is reduced a lot by people from lucky states, it makes sense to call the range just below it borderline. Get below that (500-504) and you're into the zone where you need URM status or something else helping your odds for an otherwise average person

All right so we're just talking semantics here. I just don't want to call the range in which the average applicant gets in "borderline."

 

[Lucca]

All right so we're just talking semantics here. I just don't want to call the range in which the average applicant gets in is "borderline."

I can understand that. When advising people on the internet about which schools to apply to / how many, however, I prefer to be as conservative as possible in the interpretation of the information that is presented. I'd rather help someone be well-prepared than give them extra confidence.

 

[efle]

All right so we're just talking semantics here. I just don't want to call the range in which the average applicant gets in is "borderline."

50% of people in med school are attending the only place that admitted them. The average number of interview invites for admitted students was a whopping 3.

The average person that gets in was borderline in a very practical sense, it's not just semantics.

All right so we're just talking semantics here. I just don't want to call the range in which the average applicant gets in is "borderline."

 

[BombsAway]

What everyone's getting at is basically this: If you aren't neurotic and don't have anxiety about this process yet, you should probably start.

 

[mwsapphire]

So this basically :

 

[7331poas]

Are these percentiles reflected in the MSAR? How should I look at those compared to my score which will be released tomorrow?

 

[efle]

Are these percentiles reflected in the MSAR? How should I look at those compared to my score which will be released tomorrow?

The differences are too negligible to view the MSAR stats any differently. If a place had a 519 median, view it as a 519 median.

 

[Horse Apiece]

HI used the new percentiles that came out today to create a chart with the accepted median MCAT and matriculant median MCAT as percentiles versus the 2017 accepted median and matriculant medians.

Format: year: Accepted - Matriculant. (%tiles)... then [2017 %tile minus 2018 %tile = Accepted, Matriculant ]
U. Chicago 2018: 98% - 98% 2017: 99% - 98%; -1%, 0%
Northwestern 2018: 97% - 97% 2017: 98% - 97%;-1%,0%
Columbia 2018: 97% - 96% 2017: 97% - 97%; 0%,-1%
Cornell 2018: 97% - 97% 2017: 97% - 97%; 0%,0%
Mount Sinai 2018: 97% - 97% 2017: 97% - 96%; 0%,+1%
Case Western 2018: 95% - 95% 2017: 97% -96%;-2%,-1%
U. Michigan 2018: 94% - 91% 2017: 97% - 94%;-3%,-3%
Yale 2018: 97% - 97% 2017: 97% - 97%;0%,0%
Stanford 2018: 97% - 97% 2017: 96% - 96%;+1%,+1%
UCSF 2018: 94% - 93% 2017: 94% - (unknown, didn't record)
U. Pitt 2018: 93% - 91% 2017: 96% - 96%;-3%,-5%
NYU 2018: 98% - 98% 2017: 97% - 97%;+1%,+1%
UVA 2018: 97% - 97% 2017: 94% - 94%;+3%,+3%
Emory 2018: 93% - 93% 2017: 94% - 94%;-1%,-1%
Hofstra 2018: 94% - 91% 2017: 94% - 94%;0%,-3%
Keck 2018: 93% - 87% 2017: 96% - 96%;-3%,-9%
U. Cinc 2018: 93% - 91% 2017: 91% - 91%;+2%,0%
Perelman 2018: 97% - 94% 2017: 99% - 98%;-2%,-4%
Boston U. 2018: 95% - 94% 2017: 96% - 96%;-1%,-2%
Einstein 2018: 94% - 93% 2017: 91% - 91%;+3%,+2%
Duke 2018: 94% - 89% 2017: 97% - 97%;-3%,-8%

My guess for next year is that certain schools will be scrambling to get their averages back up to what they were, but overall %tile medians shouldn't increase for schools beyond the normal inflation of school averages.

 

[7331poas]

The differences are too negligible to view the MSAR stats any differently. If a place had a 519 median, view it as a 519 median.

And how should I look at my score? Should i pretend like it is the same as well?

I just like to know how things "actually" are because if my score goes from 515-> 514 and the schools stayed at the old score. Suddenly im working on incomplete knowledge.

 

[efle]

And how should I look at my score? Should i pretend like it is the same as well?

I just like to know how things "actually" are because if my score goes from 515-> 514 and the schools stayed at the old score. Suddenly im working on incomplete knowledge.

I don't think schools are that likely to pay attention to fluctuations of a percentile or two. If they had a 515 median your competitiveness with a 515 this year is likely the same as before.

 

[7331poas]

I don't think schools are that likely to pay attention to fluctuations of a percentile or two. If they had a 515 median your competitiveness with a 515 this year is likely the same as before.

Ah I see. I guess I am wondering if I should be as "happy" with a 513 tomorrow as I would be with a 514 previously?

 

[efle]

Ah I see. I guess I am wondering if I should be as "happy" with a 513 tomorrow as I would be with a 514 previously?

That's probably true yes. But that 1 pt won't be what decides your interviews/admits regardless

 

[TRPMinus]

hmmm no changes for me, but that comes with the territory. neuroticism levels here >1000

 

[MareNostrummm]

The answer is unfortunately yes. Look at your updated score report. Kinda sucks for those who took it near 2015, and had less reliable study materials.

Yup, most of the test prep companies released updated books after how terrible the 2015 sets were.