ChessMaster3000

7+ Year Member
Mar 7, 2010
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On the UWorld "Cumulative Performance" tab, it lists your percent correct, followed by the percentile that correlates with. In the past, SDN users have created regression equations to determine predicted Step 1 score based on the percent correct. However, the percentile information is just as useful, if not moreso. If we know that the standard deviation for step 1 is on average 20 (as published by the NBME), and if the average step 1 score is 227, and you are at the 84th percentile in USMLE world, then a rough prediction can be made that you would score one standard deviation above the mean, ie, a 247. Likewise, if you are at the 95th percentile, or two standard deviations above the mean, you could estimate a score 267.

Obviously this has limitations--it's just a prediction, of course, and it also is not exactly consistent with the regression equations I have seen on SDN in the past. For example, if your UW average is currently 83%, which by using the equations (I can't find the link at the moment, it is on a previous thread), would put the prediction at a 257. 83% correlates with 94th percentile, or approximately 2 SD above, that would put you at a 267. Thus, combining the regression equation with the percentile correlation, I think an appropriate RANGE (which honestly is the only useful pre-test assessment anyway, not a pinpoint score) would be 257-267.
 
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