7+ Year Member
Mar 7, 2010
On the UWorld "Cumulative Performance" tab, it lists your percent correct, followed by the percentile that correlates with. In the past, SDN users have created regression equations to determine predicted Step 1 score based on the percent correct. However, the percentile information is just as useful, if not moreso. If we know that the standard deviation for step 1 is on average 20 (as published by the NBME), and if the average step 1 score is 227, and you are at the 84th percentile in USMLE world, then a rough prediction can be made that you would score one standard deviation above the mean, ie, a 247. Likewise, if you are at the 95th percentile, or two standard deviations above the mean, you could estimate a score 267.

Obviously this has limitations--it's just a prediction, of course, and it also is not exactly consistent with the regression equations I have seen on SDN in the past. For example, if your UW average is currently 83%, which by using the equations (I can't find the link at the moment, it is on a previous thread), would put the prediction at a 257. 83% correlates with 94th percentile, or approximately 2 SD above, that would put you at a 267. Thus, combining the regression equation with the percentile correlation, I think an appropriate RANGE (which honestly is the only useful pre-test assessment anyway, not a pinpoint score) would be 257-267.
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