UW Self assessment score prediction

[Carbocation1]

How accurate are are the UWSAs in score prediction? I heard it used to over predict, but they changed the curve recently to make it harsher?

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[cyberchicken001]

How accurate are are the UWSAs in score prediction? I heard it used to over predict, but they changed the curve recently to make it harsher?

I've also heard this (a few ppl mentioned it on reddit). Anyone have any first hand experience to share regarding this?

 

[newyorkcitymed]

The curve is still super generous compared to NBMEs. I got 151/200 correct on UWSA1 --> 244. And on UWSA2, I got 168/200 correct --> 260. Have not taken the actual exam yet.

 

[cyberchicken001]

The curve is still super generous compared to NBMEs. I got 151/200 correct on UWSA1 --> 244. And on UWSA2, I got 168/200 correct --> 260. Have not taken the actual exam yet.

Did the UWSAs feel more difficult than the NBMEs? Sounds like you got >75% on both - by UWorld question difficulty standards it's not hard to believe that translates to a good score.

 

[newyorkcitymed]

Did the UWSAs feel more difficult than the NBMEs? Sounds like you got >75% on both - by UWorld question difficulty standards it's not hard to believe that translates to a good score.

~75% correct on NBMEs would end up being not even 210. That's what I mean by the curve being tougher on NBME than on UWSA. In terms of how hard individual questions are, I think UWorld are harder, but not hard enough to justify such a generous curve.

 

[smile8888]

The curve is still super generous compared to NBMEs. I got 151/200 correct on UWSA1 --> 244. And on UWSA2, I got 168/200 correct --> 260. Have not taken the actual exam yet.

Did the UWSA change?? I took both of the UWSA like 3 to 4 weeks ago. It was four sets of 44 questions.

 

[newyorkcitymed]

Did the UWSA change?? I took both of the UWSA like 3 to 4 weeks ago. It was four sets of 44 questions.

Oh oops - it's still four sets of 44 questions - I have a spreadsheet of all my scores listed by % correct, and I accidentally converted that to scores out of 200, not out of 176.

 

[plasmodium]

NBMEs are the only reliable predictive measure.

 

[PhillyMed777]

Recently went through this process. The Uworld self assessments really underpredicted for me. i think they changed it.
nbmes were good predictors, although they also underpredicted me

 

[Bobcat18]

.

 

[tallaznCstudnt]

Do you do UWSA after completing all of UWorld questions?

 

[Bobcat18]

Not sure how most people do it but I didn't wait until finishing Uworld. Did my first today and I'm about 50% through UW. I'm two months out from my exam so I did it to get a gauge on how I'm progressing and what my weak areas are.

Do you do UWSA after completing all of UWorld questions?

 

[recycledpaper]

The curve is way more generous. I got a 253 with about 81% right, then with 84% right on an NBME it's like high 220s.

That being said, the questions are way more straightforward on NBMEs (short stems). So you either know it or you don't. Not a fan of that.

 

[gerd2018]

How accurate are are the UWSAs in score prediction? I heard it used to over predict, but they changed the curve recently to make it harsher?

I got a 252 on Uwsa 2 three days before step 1

253 on the real thing.

 

[Radsoon]

I heard that they over predict as well. I haven't done them yet but they should be good for additional practice questions though. Most ppl I know scored lower on the real thing than the UWSAs.

 

[recycledpaper]

I got a 252 on Uwsa 2 three days before step 1

253 on the real thing.

Wow. Would be great if my UWSA translated like this.

 

[Dr.serotonin]

i will be happy if UWSA prediction is correct.
just took uwsa1 and scored 238 (73% Qs correct)
4 days back uwsa2 was 245 (78% correct) on the same day i did NBME 17 and got 230 (85% Qs correct)

 

[iceman55]

That being said, the questions are way more straightforward on NBMEs (short stems). So you either know it or you don't. Not a fan of that.

I don't agree with this but I think it's a pretty subjective thing anyway.

IMO, of the NBMEs i have taken (15, 16, 18) the straight recall questions are usually the easy ones, the gimmes. A good proportion of the questions usually require a strong knowledge base of the disease or basic science concept they are testing in that particular question. I found this to be very true, at least IMO for NBME 18, which I thought was much tougher and on a slightly different level than 15 and 16.


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[OrthoRehab33]

i will be happy if UWSA prediction is correct.
just took uwsa1 and scored 238 (73% Qs correct)
4 days back uwsa2 was 245 (78% correct) on the same day i did NBME 17 and got 230 (85% Qs correct)

I don't understand how getting 85% right leads to only a 230. Shouldn't an 85 on the real deal put you at 250-260s?

 

[iceman55]

I don't understand how getting 85% right leads to only a 230. Shouldn't an 85 on the real deal put you at 250-260s?

The curve on each NBME is slightly different and reflects the level of difficulty. It seems like NBME 17 is a relatively easier one because an 85% on NBME 16 should get you right around or slightly above 235 and 85% on NBME 18 about 240. Nonetheless, it's still a steep curve.


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[Dr.serotonin]

I don't understand how getting 85% right leads to only a 230. Shouldn't an 85 on the real deal put you at 250-260s?

in nbme 17 i made 30 mistakes which means 170/200 which is 85% and in nbme 15 i made 32 mistakes but still scored 234

 

[Dr.serotonin]

The curve on each NBME is slightly different and reflects the level of difficulty. It seems like NBME 17 is a relatively easier one because an 85% on NBME 16 should get you right around or slightly above 235 and 85% on NBME 18 about 240. Nonetheless, it's still a steep curve.


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I agree

 

[Postictal Raiden]

It seems to me that if you multiply your NBME percent correct by 2.75, you'd get a very close estimate of your score.

 

[iceman55]

It seems to me that if you multiply your NBME percent correct by 2.75, you'd get a very close estimate of your score.

If you are doing them online there is no need to do this. And it could be off, are you accounting for difficulty?


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[Postictal Raiden]

If you are doing them online there is no need to do this. And it could be off, are you accounting for difficulty?


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No, but, over a month ago, I did NBME 15 online and got 217 (79% correct). The above poster states that he scored 234 on NBME 17 by getting 85% correct. So it looks to me that the formula is good at giving an estimate score +/-2. I agree with you, though, that if you are doing the online test, you shouldn't be concerned with this. For the offline tests, however, this can be a helpful way to estimate your score.

 

[Ophthoseidon]

They definitely changed their scale from last year. I think they are pretty accurate now. Last week I scored 234 on UWSA2 and it was 72.5% correct. Today I took NBME 12 (granted an earlier one) and scored 239 (88.5% correct). I've only studied about 3-4 hours/day for the last week so it's not like I jumped a ridiculous amount due to increase in knowledge.

 

[tvelocity514]

They definitely changed their scale from last year. I think they are pretty accurate now. Last week I scored 234 on UWSA2 and it was 72.5% correct. Today I took NBME 12 (granted an earlier one) and scored 239 (88.5% correct). I've only studied about 3-4 hours/day for the last week so it's not like I jumped a ridiculous amount due to increase in knowledge.

Was uwsa2 really helpful? I'm debating whether it's worth to take or not in my last 4 days before my exam


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[Ophthoseidon]

Was uwsa2 really helpful? I'm debating whether it's worth to take or not in my last 4 days before my exam


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If you have time to go over it then yeah, I think it's worth it. That being said it takes me forever to review a 176 question test, so if it were me I wouldn't do it.