Wait-list Support Group

[Jessicabpc]

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@gyngyn i was just reading over past years thread and it seems like there were significantly more schools that over accepted students last year and barely had any waitlist movement. hopefully its better this year already and waitlists dont freeze up

Fingers crossed! The school I'm WL at, UACOM, accepted zero people from the WL last year. But the year before that they accepted about 20 people from the WL!

 

[helixpi]

Fingers crossed! The school I'm WL at, UACOM, accepted zero people from the WL last year. But the year before that they accepted about 20 people from the WL!

Same boat 🙁


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[gyngyn]

@gyngyn, do you think this is the case this year?

I think it was mentioned that there's this magical algorithm that selects students that are more likely to stay in the schools they were accepted to, so perhaps it is slower

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@gyngyn i was just reading over past years thread and it seems like there were significantly more schools that over accepted students last year and barely had any waitlist movement. hopefully its better this year already and waitlists dont freeze up

I have observed a detectable trend over last 5 years of decreased volatility. I ascribe this to the development of better methods of identifying the "number needed to fill" because of better data management and analysis. It only takes one year of over-accepting (or really significant under-accepting) to motivate a school to develop a more precise methodology. That, and they fire the admissions dean!.

 

[723794]

I have observed a detectable trend over last 5 years of decreased volatility. I ascribe this to the development of better methods of identifying the "number needed to fill" because of better data management and analysis. It only takes one year of over-accepting (or really significant under-accepting) to motivate a school to develop a more precise methodology. That, and they fire the admissions dean!.

the only hope i have this year is that the schools who over accepted last year changed their methodology to accept more off of the waitlist which could help the students. but then again, do any schools ideally want to accept from the waitlist?

 

[gyngyn]

the only hope i have this year is that the schools who over accepted last year changed their methodology to accept more off of the waitlist which could help the students. but then again, do any schools ideally want to accept from the waitlist?

With a strong algorithm, waitlist movement should be minimal. Schools have different measures of success, though, and the behavior of other schools is difficult to predict. The ability to observe trends and make adjustments are the qualities of a really good admissions dean. Some waitlist movement is expected, massive movement indicates a problem.

 

[whatsupdr]

Georgetown moved but not for me.

 

[Ayy_MadScientist]

Georgetown moved but not for me.

or me 🙁

 

[whatsupdr]

Accepted!!!

 

[sunshine02]

Accepted!!!

Congrats! Which school?

 

[wysdoc]

Accepted!!!

woo hoo! I figured there would be no more news until Monday, good for you!

 

[paingains]

I have observed a detectable trend over last 5 years of decreased volatility. I ascribe this to the development of better methods of identifying the "number needed to fill" because of better data management and analysis. It only takes one year of over-accepting (or really significant under-accepting) to motivate a school to develop a more precise methodology. That, and they fire the admissions dean!.

At that point, being waitlisted essentially becomes a death sentence. As administrative methodology improves, I hope schools choose to proportionally reduce the number they interview.

 

[Curioso06]

@gyngyn Thank you for taking the time out of your day to provide us with all this information regarding WL movement. I had a few questions and was wondering if you had any insight into them:

At your institution, does the admissions dean ultimately select who will be offered admissions from the WL (with the input from the rest of the adcom)?

Do you happened to know if, at other institutions, the admissions dean is the one who ultimately selects candidates from the WL, assuming that the WL is unranked?

Thanks for any input you may be to provide!

 

[gyngyn]

@gyngyn Thank you for taking the time out of your day to provide us with all this information regarding WL movement. I had a few questions and was wondering if you had any insight into them:

At your institution, does the admissions dean ultimately select who will be offered admissions from the WL (with the input from the rest of the adcom)?

Do you happened to know if, at other institutions, the admissions dean is the one who ultimately selects candidates from the WL, assuming that the WL is unranked?

Thanks for any input you may be to provide!

LCME standards require that the admissions committee choose all accepted students. Deans have been asked to resign very recently for going rogue on the waitlist.
There are many ways to follow the wishes of the committee without re-convening the group, though.
The admissions dean's primary responsibility is to execute the wishes of the committee, not to make acceptance decisions independent of that group.

 

[gyngyn]

At that point, being waitlisted essentially becomes a death sentence. As administrative methodology improves, I hope schools choose to proportionally reduce the number they interview.

This is one of the reasons for the greater precision; less inefficiency for all concerned. Until there is an upper limit on the number of schools to which applicants can apply, there will always be a great deal of waste (read waitlist), though.

 

[Curioso06]

LCME standards require that the admissions committee choose all accepted students. Deans have been asked to resign very recently for going rogue on the waitlist.
There are many ways to follow the wishes of the committee without re-convening the group, though.
The admissions dean's primary responsibility is to execute the wishes of the committee, not to make acceptance decisions independent of that group.

Thanks for your reply. I'm just curious as to what you mean by this or if you could provide an example of how this may work. From what I can understand, a ranked WL is more or less straightforward. That is, the adcom goes down the WL, which is organized by some numerical score, and selects candidates based on their rank on the WL and attributes that they're looking for in their upcoming class (e.g., IS/OOS, male/female, etc.).

However, I would assume an unranked WL has room for interpretation. I would guess at most schools, there are candidates at the "top" and "bottom" of the "unranked" WL, but there's probably a majority who are still in the "middle" of the WL. How do they select from the ones in the middle, who are all basically equal in the eyes of the adcom?

I guess what I'm ultimately asking is how similar candidates on an "unranked" WL are selected.

 

[gyngyn]

Thanks for your reply. I'm just curious as to what you mean by this or if you could provide an example of how this may work. From what I can understand, a ranked WL is more or less straightforward. That is, the adcom goes down the WL, which is organized by some numerical score, and selects candidates based on their rank on the WL and attributes that they're looking for in their upcoming class (e.g., IS/OOS, male/female, school etc.).

However, I would assume an unranked WL has room for interpretation. I would guess at most schools, there are candidates at the "top" and "bottom" of the "unranked" WL, but there's probably a majority who are still in the "middle" of the WL. How do they select from the ones in the middle, who are all basically equal in the eyes of the adcom?

I guess what I'm ultimately asking is how similar candidates on an "unranked" WL are selected.

The candidates could easily be stratified by committee vote. The waitlist might be stratified by the number of votes to admit. For example the first to be called would be those with 9 votes to accept and one to defer. When all the available 9/1's are depleted, move on to to the 8/2's...
Within any particular stratum the committee may give the dean instructions for choosing within that group (e.g. balance gender, rural, local, highest gpa...).

 

[InterviewI]

I guess what I'm ultimately asking is how similar candidates on an "unranked" WL are selected

My understanding is that the majority of these unranked 'similar candidate waitlisters' ultimately remain unselected from the waitlist. Depending on how big the waitlist is for a lot of schools, most candidates might only get the one committee decision that ultimately places them in the waitlist. I don't know if they are looked at again. I think this applies most to schools that waitlist in the 100's .

 

[Dr. Heel Good]

How would one interpret no WL movement yet, besides the obvious answer?

 

[PNWMed2020]

I apologize if this has already been asked, but does May 15th have any significance regarding waitlist movement? I know reporting for medical schools changes on this date. But is more movement usually seen before or after this date?

 

[Curioso06]

The candidates could easily be stratified by committee vote. The waitlist might be stratified by the number of votes to admit. For example the first to be called would be those with 9 votes to accept and one to defer. When all the available 9/1's are depleted, move on to to the 8/2's...
Within any particular stratum the committee may give the dean instructions for choosing within that group (e.g. balance gender, rural, local, highest gpa...).

If I'm understanding this correctly, it sounds like the WL is split into tiers and then there are some specifications that are used to select candidates.

Therefore, what is the difference between a ranked and unranked waitlist? I suppose, that was my question all along.

 

[gyngyn]

If I'm understanding this correctly, it sounds like the WL is split into tiers and then there are some specifications that are used to select candidates.

Therefore, what is the difference between a ranked and unranked waitlist? I suppose, that was my question all along.

A ranked waitlist moves slavishly through a precisely enumerated list without regard to changes in the residual class (or the waitlist). A stratified waitlist uses the enthusiasm of the committee to allow flexibility within a group of equally ranked candidates.

 

[magictouch]

.

 

[723794]

I apologize if this has already been asked, but does May 15th have any significance regarding waitlist movement? I know reporting for medical schools changes on this date. But is more movement usually seen before or after this date?

+1

 

[gyngyn]

I apologize if this has already been asked, but does May 15th have any significance regarding waitlist movement? I know reporting for medical schools changes on this date. But is more movement usually seen before or after this date?

Not that I'm aware of. It's the date after which we have to call the poachee school, though.

 

[themelofellow]

I apologize if this has already been asked, but does May 15th have any significance regarding waitlist movement? I know reporting for medical schools changes on this date. But is more movement usually seen before or after this date?

+2

 

[Spector1]

+2

+3

 

[Sa.cl]

Not that I'm aware of. It's the date after which we have to call the poachee school, though.

Hi! What does this entail exactly for May 16? I'm a bit confused

 

[gyngyn]

Hi! What does this entail exactly for May 16? I'm a bit confused

We have to notify the school at which a candidate holds an acceptance when we plan to offer them an acceptance off the waitlist. It has no direct effect on applicants.

 

[Sa.cl]

We have to notify the school at which a candidate holds an acceptance when we plan to offer them an acceptance off the waitlist. It has no direct effect on applicants.

Thanks! That makes sense

 

[bobbymc6893]

We have to notify the school at which a candidate holds an acceptance when we plan to offer them an acceptance off the waitlist. It has no direct effect on applicants.

But indirectly it means if people drop, more wait list movement?!


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[gyngyn]

But indirectly it means if people drop, more wait list movement?!


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One way or another. Even a successful poach may only be reducing the excess acceptances at the original school, though.

 

[bobbymc6893]

One way or another.

Deleted

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[idontknowwhatnametopick]

We have to notify the school at which a candidate holds an acceptance when we plan to offer them an acceptance off the waitlist. It has no direct effect on applicants.

So the school an applicant is currently committed to would find out that the applicant got in elsewhere before the applicant even does?

 

[gyngyn]

So the school an applicant is currently committed to would find out that the applicant got in elsewhere before the applicant even does?

Yes. You'd be surprised how often voice mail is not set up.

 

[idontknowwhatnametopick]

Yes. You'd be surprised how often voice mail is not set up.

Awkwaaard

 

[gyngyn]

Awkwaaard

Anoyiiiing!

 

[723794]

gyngyn see if you can poach some accepted rochester students this week lol

 

[gyngyn]

gyngyn see if you can poach some accepted rochester students this week lol

I hope we won't have to!

 

[fondofhats]

Yes. You'd be surprised how often voice mail is not set up.

Is this true between MD and DO schools as well?

 

[gyngyn]

Is this true between MD and DO schools as well?

Nope. We don't even know if someone is accepted to a DO school (unless they tell us).

 

[NimbleNavigator]

Are there any schools that are known to accept WL students with stats significantly above their average if in March they see that the student still hasn't been accepted yet? I mean you would hope that they all would, but I don't know.

 

[gyngyn]

Are there any schools that are known to accept WL students with stats significantly above their average if in March they see that the student still hasn't been accepted yet? I mean you would hope that they all would, but I don't know.

Nope. That doesn't mean it can't happen, though.

 

[EngineerToMD]

Nope. That doesn't mean it can't happen, though.

With that in mind - do you see a fairly consistent correlation between what you have on your lists and where they are on the lists of your poacher/poachee schools in terms of rankings? That is, do you generally see "tiers" of applicants such as: accepted at top / waitlisted at other top, accepted at middle / waitlisted at top, accepted at lower / waitlisted at middle, no acceptances / waitlisted at lower? I realize different schools have different priorities for selection, but does the cascade tend to move in that manner?

 

[gyngyn]

With that in mind - do you see a fairly consistent correlation between what you have on your lists and where they are on the lists of your poacher/poachee schools in terms of rankings? That is, do you generally see "tiers" of applicants such as: accepted at top / waitlisted at other top, accepted at middle / waitlisted at top, accepted at lower / waitlisted at middle, no acceptances / waitlisted at lower? I realize different schools have different priorities for selection, but does the cascade tend to move in that manner?

There is a predictable pattern of "poachability."

 

[EngineerToMD]

There is a predictable pattern of "poachability."

Thank you - that's very interesting. Taking into account the correlation between what you see on AMCAS and what we see on SDN in terms of report frequency, I imagine that we could bucket-sort the school threads into tiered groups and follow the traffic to some (limited) extent.

That being said, I was actually more interested in the consistency of the admissions process among schools. The "poachability" pattern implies that applicants are consistently evaluated among schools, and at the beginning of traffic flow, they have a "home base position" of an acceptance at tier n and waitlisted spot at tier n-1.

 

[songl4a]

.

 

[gyngyn]

Thank you - that's very interesting. Taking into account the correlation between what you see on AMCAS and what we see on SDN in terms of report frequency, I imagine that we could bucket-sort the school threads into tiered groups and follow the traffic to some (limited) extent.

That being said, I was actually more interested in the consistency of the admissions process among schools. The "poachability" pattern implies that applicants are consistently evaluated among schools, and at the beginning of traffic flow, they have a "home base position" of an acceptance at tier n and waitlisted spot at tier n-1.

I see a great deal of variability between schools regarding the desirability of individual applicants.
We have students at the bottom of the waitlist holding an acceptance to Harvard, for example.
The ability to poach from Harvard, on the other hand is essentially nil.

 

[gyngyn]

Weird, that sounds backwards?

Once you get to the waitlist, the committee vote means more than anything else.
A low stats candidate with a strong vote will beat high stats without.

 

[justdoit1234]

I see a great deal of variability between schools regarding the desirability of individual applicants.
We have students at the bottom of the waitlist holding an acceptance to Harvard, for example.
The ability to poach from Harvard, on the other hand is essentially nil.

has Rush been moving people off of the waitlist recently?

 

[gyngyn]

has Rush been moving people off of the waitlist recently?

I'll include all movement I see in the AM post!