WARS Effectiveness Survey. Please read the text before voting.

[hydrophobicmed]

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So many of us are relying on WARS nowadays to construct our list of schools. I am curious how effective it is. But I want to limit the scope to only the top because variables become hard to control as we go down the list. Since 2017, our perception of what constitutes the top tier has changed. For this poll, I define top tier as the following 10 schools: Harvard, Stanford, Hopkins, UCSF, Penn, WashU, Yale, Columbia, NYU, and Mayo. (I don't mean to impose any specific idea or concept of top 10 here and I know it's a very sensitive topic, so please bear with me for this only for the purpose of finding out whether WARS works for us or not). Also if you are not A/S applicants as defined by WARS and you'd like to leave a comment below as how many II's you got from these schools, please do so as well.

Edit: For the sake of countability, Mayo should be only counted once if you have both campus interviews.

 

[diasterdream]

So do we just vote the number of schools in that list that have given people invites?

 

[hydrophobicmed]

So do we just vote the number of schools in that list that have given people invites?

yes, please.

 

[deleted972488]

S rank WARS score. 5 IIs out of the list you provided although I’d argue that there are other schools that belong on the list. 🙂

 

[hydrophobicmed]

S rank WARS score. 5 IIs out of the list you provided although I’d argue that there are other schools that belong on the list. 🙂

yeah, I understand, see my edited comments.

 

[deleted987519]

applied to 7, 1 II, 1 hold, 2 R

 

[Saturday’s Child]

Applied to 6, 3 II, 1 hold (silent R), haven’t heard back from 2.

Edit: Hold —> R

 

[Saturday’s Child]

S rank WARS score. 5 IIs out of the list you provided although I’d argue that there are other schools that belong on the list. 🙂

What would your list be?

 

[proudofmykids]

Isn't that too early? IIs still being issued.

Applied to 6
IIs 3
R pre II 1
Wars 87

 

[hydrophobicmed]

Isn't that too early? IIs still being issued.

Applied to 6
IIs 2
R pre II 1
Wars 87

feel free to update your vote as you go. Thanks!

 

[notproudofmyparent]

2

 

[mass-premed66]

I’m not at all close to A/S but I have 5 IIs and 1A to those out of 8 applied.

EDIT: I’m dumb and was thinking of LM and not WARS. I am in the S category

 

[hydrophobicmed]

I’m not at all close to A/S but I have 5 IIs and 1A to those out of 8 applied.

Congrats! WARS 92 is S applicant I believe.

 

[OntologicalDamnation]

WARS 98 1 II from UCSF. I don't like WARS. Someone with a 511 MCAT could be in the S range.

 

[hydrophobicmed]

WARS 98 1 II from UCSF. I don't like WARS. Someone with a 511 MCAT could be in the S range.

That's kind of the purpose of the poll, to see whether WARS really can help us predict where we get our II's.

 

[u_raptor]

5 but I only applied to 8 of those (no CA schools). And if we are going by your strict rules, 4 II (only applied to one Mayo). 96 WARS on a good day

 

[hydrophobicmed]

5 but I only applied to 8 of those (no CA schools). And if we are going by your strict rules, 4 (only applied to one Mayo).

Thank you for sharing. That rule is silly, because I realized someone might have 11 II's otherwise, which is not an option!

 

[u_raptor]

Thank you for sharing. That rule is silly, because I realized someone might have 11 II's otherwise, which is not an option!

True. Although for this purpose, getting one out of the two is still a pretty big achievement, so I feel like it should still be counted for?

 

[hydrophobicmed]

True. Although for this purpose, getting one out of the two is still a pretty big achievement, so I feel like it should still be counted for?

of course. It's completely fine. It's quite interesting to see a distinct bell curve.

 

[Kracin]

This is a really poorly designed survey with no usable information from the poll 🤔

 

[hydrophobicmed]

This is a really poorly designed survey with no usable information from the poll 🤔

any suggestion on improving?

 

[OntologicalDamnation]

any suggestion on improving?

For one, you have to somehow control ORMs from URMs

 

[hydrophobicmed]

For one, you have to somehow control ORMs from URMs

but that is controlled by WARS already.

 

[OntologicalDamnation]

but that is controlled by WARS already.

I meant determining whether the WARS score has a better predictive power for URMs than ORMs. I guess that it would be a separate question, but it would be nice to separate the two groups rather than conflate both of them.

 

[hydrophobicmed]

I meant determining whether the WARS score has a better predictive power for URMs than ORMs. I guess that it would be a separate question, but it would be nice to separate the two groups rather than conflate both of them.

yeah, it would. But this is a really rudimentary survey tool. Hard to design a complicated study when your options are limited by the tool.

 

[kserasera]

Might be best if this were normalized to how many schools you applied to out of the 10 or limited only to applicants who applied to all 10.

 

[deleted987519]

UPDATE: my one hold just turned into a rejection lmao

 

[blurb_123]

WARS is too subjective and I assume some people are giving themselves benefit of the doubt a little too often.

WARS can’t “fully” quantify the flash/fit characteristics that top schools like. Whether it’s a prestigious fellowship, athlete, extremely high stats, URM, etc.

You shouldn’t give yourself a medal because you’ve assigned YOURSELF an A/S score.

 

[diasterdream]

WARS is too subjective and I assume some people are giving themselves benefit of the doubt a little too often.

WARS can’t “fully” quantify the flash/fit characteristics that top schools like. Whether it’s a prestigious fellowship, athlete, extremely high stats, URM, etc.

You shouldn’t give yourself a medal because you’ve assigned YOURSELF an A/S score.

Okay. I agree that WARS is subjective and will not be the perfect rubric for everybody, but where did you see people gloat about having "A/S" score?

 

[deleted804295]

A 511 can be in S range for WARS? It needs to be scrapped then. I like Goro's guidelines for MCAT and GPA and I think if someone could make a formula for that it would be great.

Have a bunch of free time next semester so if I end up embarking on such a project I'll update you all.

 

[Kracin]

any suggestion on improving?

There was a similar thread last year

How did WARS work for you?

if you applied in 2018, did you use WedgeDawg's Applicant Rating System (Updated Jan 2017) ? If yes, how did that work for you? Asking for a friend.

forums.studentdoctor.net

If you took a concept like this and stratified it per category (expected number of interviews, number of interviews received) it would give you more meaningful data

 

[blurb_123]

Okay. I agree that WARS is subjective and will not be the perfect rubric for anybody, but where did you see people gloat about having "A/S" score?

I haven’t. I’m saying it metaphorically. As in people shouldn’t make assumptions about their potential success based on a subjective rating.

Point being, whatever score you assign, whatever happens will happen. It sounds (and probably is) a little trite, but these things can’t be used to accurately predict (especially these kind of threads) unless you have the stats and one of those hooks I mentioned above, which would help a bunch.

 

[proudofmykids]

WARS 98 1 II from UCSF. I don't like WARS. Someone with a 511 MCAT could be in the S range.

That's the idea of WARS... Someone with a 511 should and would get "adders" that actually make them more unique and desirable than 99%ile folks.

I contend that those who are or were huge reinventors, D1 athletes, Military, URM/hardship should actually get higher boosting "adders" and seem more desirable by the T10 schools than the candidate with 99%ile MCAT and GPA with standard/decent ECs. Wars should increase the adder values, as well as the threshold for S schools. This wouldn't be toindocate that applicant shouldnt apply, but should indicate that probability chanages nd so should the quantity oon the school list. It would be greatto to indicate probability for II and Acceptqnce by school or rank range T1-10, T10-20,T20-30 etc inclusive of Yield Protection lowering of probability.
A study / poll should be conducted on self reported WARS Score, and results at each school to create a distribution for IIs and Acdeptamces. It would be powerful for SDN neurotic types.

That's kind of the purpose of the poll, to see whether WARS really can help us predict where we get our II's.

For both IIs AND Aceptances

 

[yungdoc]

WARS 86
applied to 8
0 II
1 R
I consider all of these schools reaches for me tho considering my research is on the weaker side

 

[deleted858665]

WARS 97
Applied to 4
II to 3
R from 1
Should've applied to more.

 

[moldydorito]

Applied to 9 of those schools. II from 5, R from 2.

 

[WedgeDawg]

I always tell people to rate themselves conservatively if they aren’t sure

 

[peanuttbuttah]

applied to 5/10,
1 II, 82-85 on WARS (weak on research though)

 

[pBar]

WARS score of 85.5, so just borderline S. I only applied to two of the schools mentioned (Harvard and Yale) and received an II at one of them (1/2). I didn't really base my school list too heavily on WARS, however as an MD/PhD applicant I find that the return on WARS hasn't been necessarily as accurate or useful. Definitely based the school list more heavily on school fit and faculty research.

Had I applied to more of the 10 schools listed, would I have heard from more? Maybe, maybe not. Honestly I could care less though. As the cycle has gone on, I have become more and more disenchanted by the lure of what some consider "top-tier programs". Just because a school is well recieved, does not mean you will be happy as a student there. In the end, find where you will be most happy for the next 4-8 years (with a balance of professional opportunity and development).

 

[hydrophobicmed]

I always tell people to rate themselves conservatively if they aren’t sure

wonder this survey concludes that your system does work?

 

[blurb_123]

wonder this survey concludes that your system does work?

The survey shows a pretty expected distribution of A/S candidates interviewing at your so-called "top 10".

But I don't see how this proves that WARS "works". The point of WARS is to help you apply to the right schools. Just because you get a T10 interview doesn't mean you'll attend a T10. And even if you're S, you definitely shouldn't be applying to just T10/T20 schools, no matter who you are.

This also doesn't account for the relative success of ORM vs URM vs non-minority. You can't gain that info just by looking at this.

The same goes for things certain schools prioritize over others. You can't predict that via WARS. It's the reason some of us have II at some of these places and R's at others.

Especially at top schools, or the "T10" as you list them, it's really hard for individuals to stand out unless you have SOMETHING to set you apart, which may or may not be quantified by WARS.

So all in all, I'm not sure what this survey really proves. If you wanted to really see how WARS worked, you could make a WARS and school thread list where posters could list their school lists, how they deviated if at all from what WARS recommended, and then where they have interviewed so far. I think that thread exists, but if you wanted to make a new one to gather if WARS "works", that could serve your purpose.

 

[FISTMCLARGEHUGE]

I'd rather see category breakdowns and all schools that sent interviews to that person. That way you could see if a high score in something like miscellaneous correlates with a certain school. I can guess from experience this cycle that certain schools are way more lenient than others with stats as I have a 69 and have more than a few interviews from your list and other "top" schools while I have a ton of Rs from schools that Wars says I should focus on.

This is great if you're a S/A score who feels the need to validate the 1k you're gonna drop to try and go on the prestige circuit and pad that social media, as you'll inadvertently lump yourself in with people who fit the school well. Though if you actually want to use Wars to try and be cost effective/not establish a gambling problem early, looking at breakdowns of categories could help more.

 

[hydrophobicmed]

The survey shows a pretty expected distribution of A/S candidates interviewing at your so-called "top 10".

But I don't see how this proves that WARS "works". The point of WARS is to help you apply to the right schools. Just because you get a T10 interview doesn't mean you'll attend a T10. And even if you're S, you definitely shouldn't be applying to just T10/T20 schools, no matter who you are.

This also doesn't account for the relative success of ORM vs URM vs non-minority. You can't gain that info just by looking at this.

The same goes for things certain schools prioritize over others. You can't predict that via WARS. It's the reason some of us have II at some of these places and R's at others.

Especially at top schools, or the "T10" as you list them, it's really hard for individuals to stand out unless you have SOMETHING to set you apart, which may or may not be quantified by WARS.

So all in all, I'm not sure what this survey really proves. If you wanted to really see how WARS worked, you could make a WARS and school thread list where posters could list their school lists, how they deviated if at all from what WARS recommended, and then where they have interviewed so far. I think that thread exists, but if you wanted to make a new one to gather if WARS "works", that could serve your purpose.

If only I had Ph.D funding....

 

[hydrophobicmed]

bump, if anyone still wants to vote.

 

[hydrophobicmed]

curious, who's the lucky one with 10 II's from all of them? Care to share with us what you have achieved!!

 

[hydrophilicmed]

curious, who's the lucky one with 10 II's from all of them? Care to share with us what you have achieved!!

I got interviews from all the schools above plus UCLA, Case, Vandy and Duke. Wish I hadn't wasted my money applying to UCLA though. Their financial Aid package is a joke 🙄. Applied to Harvard because I wanted to be close to the fam, but after Thanksgiving I'm not so sure if that was a good idea.

 

[hydrophobicmed]

I got interviews from all the schools above plus UCLA, Case, Vandy and Duke. Wish I hadn't wasted my money applying to UCLA though. Their financial Aid package is a joke 🙄. Applied to Harvard because I wanted to be close to the fam, but after Thanksgiving I'm not so sure if that was a good idea.

thanks, my anti-me!

 

[rune2h]

WARS is just as broken as LizzyM. MCAT weighed too highly by both

 

[hydrophobicmed]

But I just love how many votes we got here! We are all voyeurs by nature lol.

 

[hydrophobicmed]

WARS is just as broken as LizzyM. MCAT weighed too highly by both

I agree. after going through the cycle, basically mcat doesn't make that much difference once you are over the hump of 520.