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Spot on as usual, Grapo.
I think the much bigger point to make here is that half the applicants don't have stats that aren't within the MD ball park but many of them just aren't as knowledgeable of the process as they ideally should be. It's not uncommon at all to see people on the WAMC thread applying with decent stats and limited/no volunteering experience or clinical exposure. These instantly can destroy the best applications; imagine what they can do to your generic 3.6/30 applicant. And keep in mind these people at least post on SDN and have some perspective about getting feedback on their chances; there are many who listen to their clueless pre-med advisors a couple friends with anecdotes and go ahead and start applying. Hell there are people who actually go about applying to medical school without investing in MSAR; that's the height of stupidity right there.
And the much bigger issue you'll see is people come up with poor lists of schools. Many borderline applicants don't apply to enough schools. And far more don't apply to well chosen lists of schools. Even on SDN you see ALL TIME time your 3.65/31 applicant with a list of 15 schools and only half of them being realisitc. There are roughly 25 lower tier MD schools that a borderline applicant can apply to and be competitive for in theory regardless of state. Many of these borderlne applicants are applying to less than 10 of them. So to me that's where when you hear someone like Goro say "Deans of Admissions I've talked to have said half the people applying have no idea what they are doing" really refer to. This to me is one of the biggest reasons why many people don't get into medical school. It's not that half the applicant pool has a 27 and under on the MCAT. The table I always refer to when I talk about the general lack of awareness of a number of people who apply is the one below.
https://www.aamc.org/download/321442/data/factstable1.pdf
Name a state school that takes at least 80% IS. I can almost gurantee the majority of applicants applying there will be OOS. This is just basic ignorance and not doing appropriate research on schools and medical school admission; nothing more. Take it even a step further. Look at schools like Arkansas: 6/7 applications are from OOS for a school that takes 85% of its class IS(and interviews a similar proportion). This is not uncommon at all. Hell, even schools like FSU takes 98% of its class IS and yet over half their apps are OOS. UC Davis probably laughs all the way to the bank at the 1500+ applications they get OOS a year when not a single one of them will matriculate. There alot of applicants who simply just throw money down the toilet with unrealistic schools and don't have as many realistic schools on their list as they should.
So no I don't think the majority of applicants have major flaws with their stats. Its just that there are so many borderline applicants who just don't have good knowledge on what is best for their application, be it ignoring the idea of getting clinical exposure or volunteering experience to not applying to realistic schools or enough schools(the average applicant applies to around 14 schools and if we assume maybe 5 or so of those schools are unrealistic that leaves 9 realistic schools when in reality there are around 25 lower tier OOS schools that borderline applicants regardless of state can in many cases have a shot at being competitive at). That to me is a major reason why the statistics for borderline applicants not getting in isn't higher. It's hard to quantify how much better the success rate would be if applicants were more aware and knowledgeable about the process, but I certainly think it would help significantly.