Look at my MDApps.
What I have found when doing research while applying (without the MSAR, mind you), was that below top 20 schools, you had a base average GPA of 3.59 - 3.74 (this doesn't include HBC's or small schools that were very region-biased). I didn't really apply the parameters of NIH funding, step 1 average (because not every school posts them), match lists, etc. The only thing that seemed to change was MCAT averages, which bottomed at around 28 (UMC, New Mexico, etc.)
I hope you didn't take my post offensively. What I was implying was that top 20 schools usually have a better advantage over state/public schools that have specific missions to serve a specific population. That in no way means that these schools can't help place students at top programs. Hell, Goro has had alums go to Mayo and other top programs.