To elaborate on what Dr. Lector said, firstly you should pick where you'll be happiest, because if you're unhappy, then you probably won't do well. However, happiness is more a state of mind than where you are. You're as happy as you choose to be, and regardless of the school, the student must do well on his/her own. Not all students at NU are happy, and not all students at a state school are happy... it is up to the individual.
If someone graduates from their state school with AOA and awesome board scores, and another student graduates from NU with board scores that approximate the national average, then obviously the student from the state school will land more competitive residencies because he/she will actually make it to the interview in the first place.
The only difference is if both students did equally well, then the student from NU may land a residency at a better hospital, BUT it still comes down to so many other things, like the interview, if your interviewer even liked you and rated you favorably, etc.
So in conclusion, no the reputation doesn't mean everything, unless you're at Harvard or Hopkins... with everything else it's mainly up to you and how well you do. Check the matchlists at your state schools; there's a sizeable number of students who matched at Harvard, Hopkins, etc.
Lastly, do you know what specialty you want to do? If you don't, what if you end up wanting to do pediatrics/primary care and then go to an expensive private school that costs you 200 grand +? Our Dean of Student Affairs here is a Psychiatrist, graduated from the University of Chicago in 1981, and told us her loans would be paid off in the year 2017! A lot of people don't realize the implications of taking so many loans just for the sake of the name of a school, but it is a factor that must be taken into account.
Hope this helps.
