what's up with MD Predictor?

pre med 2014

Full Member
5+ Year Member
So I typed in a 2.8 GPA and a 24 MCAT and it spat out 15 schools that will weak consider (20% chance of acceptance)

This means anyone with a 2.8 and 24 could get into medical school. Thinking back to statistics:

chance of getting in = 100% - [chance of not getting in anywhere]

[chance of not getting in anywhere] = 0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.03518*100%=3.518%

chance of getting in = 100% - 3.518437% = 96.48157% !!!!

So if you have a 2.8 and 24 you are certain to get into med school according to MD predictor!

TheMightySmiter

Full Member
7+ Year Member
So I typed in a 2.8 GPA and a 24 MCAT and it spat out 15 schools that will weak consider (20% chance of acceptance)

This means anyone with a 2.8 and 24 could get into medical school. Thinking back to statistics:

chance of getting in = 100% - [chance of not getting in anywhere]

[chance of not getting in anywhere] = 0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.03518*100%=3.518%

chance of getting in = 100% - 3.518437% = 96.48157% !!!!

So if you have a 2.8 and 24 you are certain to get into med school according to MD predictor!

I think you're doing it wrong...you have a 20% chance of getting in OVERALL, not a 20% chance of getting in at each school. Your chances of acceptance at an individual school with stats that low are more like 1-5%, if not less.

theseeker4

PGY 3
7+ Year Member
I think you're doing it wrong...you have a 20% chance of getting in OVERALL, not a 20% chance of getting in at each school. Your chances of acceptance at an individual school with stats that low are more like 1-5%.
lol, it was funnier when your reply just said "I think you're doing it wrong..."

Either way, +1

pre med 2014

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no I'm not. Type in the numbers, see for yourself.

TheMightySmiter

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lol, it was funnier when your reply just said "I think you're doing it wrong..."

Either way, +1

LOL. I thought about leaving it but then figured, why the hell not add a bit of logic.

pre med 2014

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5+ Year Member
It doesn't give an overall. It gives chance of getting into each individual school.

NickNaylor

Thank You for Smoking
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It doesn't give an overall. It gives chance of getting into each individual school.

This is why predictions are inherently faulty and not completely accurate.

pre med 2014

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5+ Year Member
LOL. I thought about leaving it but then figured, why the hell not add a bit of logic.

Are you sure you know what you are talking about?

theseeker4

PGY 3
7+ Year Member
Are you sure you know what you are talking about?
Hmm, you are the one saying someone with a 2.x GPA and 20-something MCAT has a >90% chance at admission..... who doesn't know what they are talking about?

tantacles

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pre med 2014

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Hmm, you are the one saying someone with a 2.x GPA and 20-something MCAT has a >90% chance at admission..... who doesn't know what they are talking about?

that is not what I am saying. That is what MD Predictor is saying. He is claiming that I am reading MD predictor wrong. Which is why I said he does not know what he is talking about, because I am quite certain I am interpreting the data correctly.

pre med 2014

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5+ Year Member
I'm pretty sure OP was not trying to make a serious point other than exactly what you just said.

Does his initial post sound sarcastic to anyone but me? Anyone?

Yes it was sarcastic. But a part of me wants it to be true because the predictor says I have a great chance at Tufts

tantacles

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Yes it was sarcastic. But a part of me wants it to be true because the predictor says I have a great chance at Tufts

Coincidentally, my mom also thought I had a great chance at Tufts.

pre med 2014

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Coincidentally, my mom also thought I had a great chance at Tufts.

are you being serious or are you making fun of me?

7+ Year Member

tantacles

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RedSox10

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no I'm not. Type in the numbers, see for yourself.

Either the site is whack, or you're reading it wrong. Even the "worst" private med school (MD) accepts around 5%, so how could someone with numbers below the average have a greater chance of getting in? Makes no sense. Stupid website

pkwraith

Full Member
10+ Year Member
Assuming the OP is actually referring to the link that someone posted, the numbers don't add up to what he proposes.

I see

FIU
Hofstra
LSU-Shreveport
Meharry
Morehouse
Oakland
PSU
Ponce
Rowan
San Juan
SUNY
Commonwealth
Central Del Caribe
UMDNJ
Kansas City
Puerto Rico

Crossing out the Spanish requiring and state schools (OOS chances would drop it significantly from ~20%)

Hofstra
Meharry
Morehouse

The above assumes that one is able to pretend genuine interest in underserved populations for Meharry/Morehouse.

So, the math would be 1 - (0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8) = .488

So, no, a 49% is not what I considered certain to get into medical school.

OoohShiny

Full Member
You can't just multiply 0.8 15 times to get the probability of you not getting into any school. This requires that the each of the "events" (getting into School X) is independent, which is obviously a very bad assumption.

WillburCobb

I am the pull out king
Removed
5+ Year Member
You can't just multiply 0.8 15 times to get the probability of you not getting into any school. This requires that the each of the "events" (getting into School X) is independent, which is obviously a very bad assumption.

The website seems relatively accurate based on my data.

K

kpcrew

conversely:

chance of not getting in = 100% - [chance of getting in anywhere]

[chance of getting in anywhere] = 0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0. 2*0.2*0.2 = 3.2768 × 10-11*100%=0.000000000032768%

chance of not getting in = 100% - 0.000000000032768% = 99.999999999967232%

So if you have a 2.8 and 24 you are even more certain to not get into med school according to MD predictor!

Full Member
7+ Year Member
conversely:

chance of not getting in = 100% - [chance of getting in anywhere]

[chance of getting in anywhere] = 0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*0. 2*0.2*0.2 = 3.2768 × 10-11*100%=0.000000000032768%

chance of not getting in = 100% - 0.000000000032768% = 99.999999999967232%

So if you have a 2.8 and 24 you are even more certain to not get into med school according to MD predictor!

Not right, that's actually the chance of getting in everywhere that MD predictor said he had a 20% chance.

The point still stands though, OP needs to take a stats class.

Danlee07

Full Member
7+ Year Member
Not right, that's actually the chance of getting in everywhere that MD predictor said he had a 20% chance.

The point still stands though, OP needs to take a stats class.
no, more like 1 week of probability will do the trick...

tantacles

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10+ Year Member
Not right, that's actually the chance of getting in everywhere that MD predictor said he had a 20% chance.

The point still stands though, OP needs to take a stats class.

You got trolled hard.